Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

People who bought China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5891" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1">Nvidia Corp (NVDA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/438" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1">iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM US)</a> somewhere in 2017 performed well. A bit below the radar is that commodities started doing well too from mid-17. There is more to come. A recent chance to add right around my EV pieces a month ago were materials like aluminum.My core 2017 into 2018 stocks are: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/929" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1">Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd (2343 HK)</a> (continued accumulate on pullbacks, most recently a little more at HK$1.6 levels, recall some lightening…

People who bought China, Nvidia Corp (NVDA US), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM US) somewhere in 2017 performed well. A bit below the radar is that commodities started doing well too from mid-17. There is more to come. A recent chance to add right around my EV pieces a month ago were materials like aluminum.My core 2017 into 2018 stocks are: Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd (2343 HK) (continued accumulate on pullbacks, most recently a little more at HK$1.6 levels, recall some lightening…

Strategy: Around the Horn 2018, the Long and Short of It. Pacific Basin Initial Notes

Lead Analyst, Credit Research, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Konstantinos Oikonomopoulos

Lead Analyst, Credit Research

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Credit

Credit positives<ul>
<li>S&amp;P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note analysing the reasons we believe the company is set for a credit rating upgrade.</li>
<li>CMA CGM transported 11% greater volumes y/y in 3Q17 outperforming global throughput growth thanks to a good market environment additional capacity within Ocean Alliance. The group also achieved 13% higher rates per teu for the first 9M17 versus 9M16 at USD 1,098.9 per teu.</li>
<li>Credit…</li>
</ul>

Credit positives
S&amp;P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note analysing the reasons we believe the company is set for a credit rating upgrade.
CMA CGM transported 11% greater volumes y/y in 3Q17 outperforming global throughput growth thanks to a good market environment additional capacity within Ocean Alliance. The group also achieved 13% higher rates per teu for the first 9M17 versus 9M16 at USD 1,098.9 per teu.
Credit…


CMA CGM Credit Research - Container Shipping

Infrastructure Analyst - Ports & Terminals, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Victor Wai, CFA

Infrastructure Analyst - Ports & Terminals

Equity Bottom-Up

Santos Brasil Participacoes Sa. / Equity Bottom-Up

Depressed earnings: Santos Brasil (STBP3 BZ Equity) is in a perilous condition, swinging to profitability only with the aid of tax refunds. Investors longing for a sale of its slumping Tecon Santos terminal, which underpins the more than 50% increase in share price over the past 3 months, are likely to be disappointed, as the company has decided to bankroll its flagship terminal by selling ancillary, but promising, assets.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/039/424/original/SB_1.JPG?1511942947" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="39424"></figure><div class="content-caption">Earnings deteriorate, investors don't seem to care</div>Expensive concession…

Depressed earnings: Santos Brasil (STBP3 BZ Equity) is in a perilous condition, swinging to profitability only with the aid of tax refunds. Investors longing for a sale of its slumping Tecon Santos terminal, which underpins the more than 50% increase in share price over the past 3 months, are likely to be disappointed, as the company has decided to bankroll its flagship terminal by selling ancillary, but promising, assets.Earnings deteriorate, investors don't seem to careExpensive concession…

Santos Brasil: Valuation Decouples from Fundamentals

Credit positives<ul>
<li>The group is focused in origin and destination cargo in emerging markets through long-term concessions (38 years on average while flagship Jebel Ali port concession ends in 88 years).</li>
<li>Fitch upgraded DPW and its bonds for second consecutive year by one notch to BBB+ in July 2017 following the group’s stable and growing cash flow generation. Moody’s had upgraded DPW in August 2016 to Baa2.</li>
<li>Strong management track record of expansion while keeping profitability and liquidity and…</li>
</ul>

Credit positives
The group is focused in origin and destination cargo in emerging markets through long-term concessions (38 years on average while flagship Jebel Ali port concession ends in 88 years).
Fitch upgraded DPW and its bonds for second consecutive year by one notch to BBB+ in July 2017 following the group’s stable and growing cash flow generation. Moody’s had upgraded DPW in August 2016 to Baa2.
Strong management track record of expansion while keeping profitability and liquidity and…


DP World Ltd. Credit Research - Credit Outlook Stable - Bond Valuation Neutral

<ul><li>
Hapag-Lloyd (HL) group's performance for the first nine months of 2017 was dominated by the consolidation of UASC for the first time: The group reported significant growth in transported volumes, thanks to UASC's teu contribution, which in conjunction with higher freight rates (although UASC realised lower rates, +2.2% on 9M17 y/y), led to EUR 9.5bn revenues for the last 12 months at end-3Q17, 21% compared to the FY16 figure. The UASC integration led to cost savings that were partly offset by…</li></ul>


Hapag-Lloyd (HL) group's performance for the first nine months of 2017 was dominated by the consolidation of UASC for the first time: The group reported significant growth in transported volumes, thanks to UASC's teu contribution, which in conjunction with higher freight rates (although UASC realised lower rates, +2.2% on 9M17 y/y), led to EUR 9.5bn revenues for the last 12 months at end-3Q17, 21% compared to the FY16 figure. The UASC integration led to cost savings that were partly offset by…

Denmark

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S is a conglomerate with diversified holdings. The Company operates a fleet including container vessels, tankers, supply ships, special vessels, APM terminials, and oil drilling rigs.  A.P. Moeller-Maersk also operates industrial business and explores for and produces oil and gas. The Company is active worldwide.

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AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)

Strategy: Around the Horn 2018, the Long and Short of It. Pacific Basin Initial Notes

People who bought China, Nvidia Corp (NVDA US), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM US) somewhere in 2017 performed well. A bit below the...

Charles De Trenck

CMA CGM Credit Research - Container Shipping

Credit positives S&P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Santos Brasil: Valuation Decouples from Fundamentals

Depressed earnings: Santos Brasil (STBP3 BZ Equity) is in a perilous condition, swinging to profitability only with the aid of tax refunds....

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

DP World Ltd. Credit Research - Credit Outlook Stable - Bond Valuation Neutral

Credit positives The group is focused in origin and destination cargo in emerging markets through long-term concessions (38 years on average while...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

DMFR - Credit Research - Hapag-Lloyd AG

Hapag-Lloyd (HL) group's performance for the first nine months of 2017 was dominated by the consolidation of UASC for the first time: The group...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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