Equity analyst - Containers, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Nilesh Tiwary

Equity analyst - Containers

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust improvement. However, the outlook for 2018 is mixed. The supply-demand balance will improve slightly, demand growth will continue to be strong, and freight rates and the profits of carriers will strengthen at lower-than-expected rates as several temporary factors create a bump on the road to recovery. The creation of bigger alliances, and the escalation of…

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust improvement. However, the outlook for 2018 is mixed.  The supply-demand balance will improve slightly, demand growth will continue to be strong, and freight rates and the profits of carriers will strengthen at lower-than-expected rates as several temporary factors create a bump on the road to recovery.  The creation of bigger alliances, and the escalation of…

Container Shipping 2018 - Demand Buoyancy Drives Positive Outlook

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

People who bought China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5891" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1">Nvidia Corp (NVDA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/438" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1">iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM US)</a> somewhere in 2017 performed well. A bit below the radar is that commodities started doing well too from mid-17. There is more to come. A recent chance to add right around my EV pieces a month ago were materials like aluminum.My core 2017 into 2018 stocks are: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/929" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1">Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd (2343 HK)</a> (continued accumulate on pullbacks, most recently a little more at HK$1.6 levels, recall some lightening…

People who bought China, Nvidia Corp (NVDA US), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM US) somewhere in 2017 performed well. A bit below the radar is that commodities started doing well too from mid-17. There is more to come. A recent chance to add right around my EV pieces a month ago were materials like aluminum.My core 2017 into 2018 stocks are: Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd (2343 HK) (continued accumulate on pullbacks, most recently a little more at HK$1.6 levels, recall some lightening…

Strategy: Around the Horn 2018, the Long and Short of It. Pacific Basin Initial Notes

Lead Analyst, Credit Research, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Konstantinos Oikonomopoulos

Lead Analyst, Credit Research

Credit

Credit positives<ul>
<li>S&amp;P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note analysing the reasons we believe the company is set for a credit rating upgrade.</li>
<li>CMA CGM transported 11% greater volumes y/y in 3Q17 outperforming global throughput growth thanks to a good market environment additional capacity within Ocean Alliance. The group also achieved 13% higher rates per teu for the first 9M17 versus 9M16 at USD 1,098.9 per teu.</li>
<li>Credit…</li>
</ul>

Credit positives
S&amp;P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note analysing the reasons we believe the company is set for a credit rating upgrade.
CMA CGM transported 11% greater volumes y/y in 3Q17 outperforming global throughput growth thanks to a good market environment additional capacity within Ocean Alliance. The group also achieved 13% higher rates per teu for the first 9M17 versus 9M16 at USD 1,098.9 per teu.
Credit…


CMA CGM Credit Research - Container Shipping

Infrastructure Analyst - Ports & Terminals, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Victor Wai, CFA

Infrastructure Analyst - Ports & Terminals

Equity Bottom-Up

Santos Brasil Participacoes Sa. / Equity Bottom-Up

Depressed earnings: Santos Brasil (STBP3 BZ Equity) is in a perilous condition, swinging to profitability only with the aid of tax refunds. Investors longing for a sale of its slumping Tecon Santos terminal, which underpins the more than 50% increase in share price over the past 3 months, are likely to be disappointed, as the company has decided to bankroll its flagship terminal by selling ancillary, but promising, assets.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/039/424/original/SB_1.JPG?1511942947" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="39424"></figure><div class="content-caption">Earnings deteriorate, investors don't seem to care</div>Expensive concession…

Depressed earnings: Santos Brasil (STBP3 BZ Equity) is in a perilous condition, swinging to profitability only with the aid of tax refunds. Investors longing for a sale of its slumping Tecon Santos terminal, which underpins the more than 50% increase in share price over the past 3 months, are likely to be disappointed, as the company has decided to bankroll its flagship terminal by selling ancillary, but promising, assets.Earnings deteriorate, investors don't seem to careExpensive concession…

Santos Brasil: Valuation Decouples from Fundamentals

Credit positives<ul>
<li>The group is focused in origin and destination cargo in emerging markets through long-term concessions (38 years on average while flagship Jebel Ali port concession ends in 88 years).</li>
<li>Fitch upgraded DPW and its bonds for second consecutive year by one notch to BBB+ in July 2017 following the group’s stable and growing cash flow generation. Moody’s had upgraded DPW in August 2016 to Baa2.</li>
<li>Strong management track record of expansion while keeping profitability and liquidity and…</li>
</ul>

Credit positives
The group is focused in origin and destination cargo in emerging markets through long-term concessions (38 years on average while flagship Jebel Ali port concession ends in 88 years).
Fitch upgraded DPW and its bonds for second consecutive year by one notch to BBB+ in July 2017 following the group’s stable and growing cash flow generation. Moody’s had upgraded DPW in August 2016 to Baa2.
Strong management track record of expansion while keeping profitability and liquidity and…


DP World Ltd. Credit Research - Credit Outlook Stable - Bond Valuation Neutral

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

D/S Norden A/S is an international shipping company.  The Company operates a fleet of modern bulk vessels and tankers consisting of company owned vessels and long-term and short-term chartered cargo ships.  D/S Norden transports commodities such as coal, fertilizer, grain, sugar, and steels, as well as crude oil and other liquids.  The Company operates worldwide.

DFDS A/S provides passenger and freight shipping services, and offers shipping related logistics solutions.  The Company focuses on two business divisions: DFDS Tor Line operates roro liner traffic in the North Sea, and DFDS Seaways runs overnight cruise ferries between cities in Northern Europe.  DFDS sells to customers with large shipping requirements and to car traveling tourists.

DSV A/S is the parent company for a group of companies that offer transport and logistics.   The Group provides truck, ship, and plane transport services, as well as warehousing and logistic services.  DSV operates in Europe, North America, and the Far East.

DSV A/S provides transport and logistics services. The Company offers road, marine, and air transport services, as well as warehousing, purchase order management, and other logistic solutions. DSV serves customers worldwide.

Kobenhavns Lufthavne A/S (Copenhagen Airports A/S - CPH) owns and operates Kastrup, the international airport in Copenhagen, and Roskilde airport.  The Company provides traffic management, maintenance, and security services, as well as manages the Airport Shopping Center and airport projects.  Kobenhavns Lufthavne also has investments in airports in Mexico, England, and China.

Vestas Wind Systems A/S develops, manufactures, and markets wind turbines that generate electricity. The Company installs and maintenance turbines. Vestas Wind Systems serves customers worldwide.

Rockwool International A/S develops and produces stone wool, a fiber made from melted volcanic rock, and stone-wool-based products such as insulation and fire protection and noise and vibration control products.  The Company's products line also includes acoustic ceilings, facade panels, and horticultural substrates.  Rockwool produces in several countries and sells worldwide.

ISS A/S provides cleaning, office support, property, catering, and integrated facility services. The Company offers security, facility management, change management, space management, and consulting services.

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

Kuehne + Nagel International AG transports freight worldwide.  The Company operates sea, land, and rail freight transportation businesses and warehousing and distribution facilities.  Kuehne + Nagel also provides related special services.

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

Kirby Corporation operates a fleet of inland tank barges.  The Company transports industrial chemicals, refined petroleum products, black oil products, and agricultural chemicals.  Kirby also overhauls and services diesel engines employed in marine, power generation, and rail applications.

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S is a conglomerate with diversified holdings. The Company operates a fleet including container vessels, tankers, supply ships, special vessels, APM terminials, and oil drilling rigs.  A.P. Moeller-Maersk also operates industrial business and explores for and produces oil and gas. The Company is active worldwide.

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AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)

Container Shipping 2018 - Demand Buoyancy Drives Positive Outlook

SummaryThe major indicators of container shipping in 2017 remained more firm than in 2016. The y/y comparisons for many data sets depict robust...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Strategy: Around the Horn 2018, the Long and Short of It. Pacific Basin Initial Notes

People who bought China, Nvidia Corp (NVDA US), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (EEM US) somewhere in 2017 performed well. A bit below the...

Charles De Trenck

CMA CGM Credit Research - Container Shipping

Credit positives S&P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Santos Brasil: Valuation Decouples from Fundamentals

Depressed earnings: Santos Brasil (STBP3 BZ Equity) is in a perilous condition, swinging to profitability only with the aid of tax refunds....

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

DP World Ltd. Credit Research - Credit Outlook Stable - Bond Valuation Neutral

Credit positives The group is focused in origin and destination cargo in emerging markets through long-term concessions (38 years on average while...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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