Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

WK 23: Mon 6 Jun 2016. (As always thoughts/comments welcome…)Global Macro Take: WK 23 – RBA, RBNZ but really all about US Bonds<ul><li>Market will continue to digest the huge NFP miss 38k a vs. 160k e, with implications into the USD &amp; the Fed</li><li>Yellen’s round table today on Economic Outlook &amp; Monetary Policy will be heavily watched</li><li>Busy week on the central bank front with decisions due out from the like of RBA, RBI, RBNZ &amp; that’s just a taste…</li><li>US bonds, the consensus long trade it seems, what (if anything) are real rates telling us? Nobody seems to believe in US inflation</li></ul>

WK 23: Mon 6 Jun 2016. (As always thoughts/comments welcome…)Global Macro Take: WK 23 – RBA, RBNZ but really all about US BondsMarket will continue to digest the huge NFP miss 38k a vs. 160k e, with implications into the USD &amp; the FedYellen’s round table today on Economic Outlook &amp; Monetary Policy will be heavily watchedBusy week on the central bank front with decisions due out from the like of RBA, RBI, RBNZ &amp; that’s just a taste…US bonds, the consensus long trade it seems, what (if anything) are real rates telling us? Nobody seems to believe in US inflation

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK 23. Mon 6 Jun. The Global Macro Take: RBA, RBNZ but Really All About US Bonds

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Blockchain is quite the buzzword nowadays. Aided by the mystique of the technology underlying Bitcoin and a unique proposition of eliminating the 'middleman', blockchain has grown from an esoteric concept to one that threatens to become mainstream in a few years. As with any new technology, there are potentially millions of applications of the technology which can alleviate legacy issues across thousands of industries. As time unravels, this seldom holds true for most technologies but blockchain may finally be an exception. This article explores the use of blockchain in the financial service industry, the in-flight projects and some investment ideas for investors to jump onto the bandwagon.

Blockchain is quite the buzzword nowadays. Aided by the mystique of the technology underlying Bitcoin and a unique proposition of eliminating the 'middleman', blockchain has grown from an esoteric concept to one that threatens to become mainstream in a few years. As with any new technology, there are potentially millions of applications of the technology which can alleviate legacy issues across thousands of industries. As time unravels, this seldom holds true for most technologies but blockchain may finally be an exception. This article explores the use of blockchain in the financial service industry, the in-flight projects and some investment ideas for investors to jump onto the bandwagon.

Blockchain in the Financial Services Industry

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100<ul><li>Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…</li><li>DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by now</li><li>As per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleep</li><li>Jun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a week</li><li>WK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event</li></ul>

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by nowAs per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleepJun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a weekWK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

<ul><li>Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the critical 110 level like fish through water</li><li>USDJPY at 108.07 on Friday is now down -9% &amp; -1% from QE III &amp; QE II rounds in Japan</li><li>Whilst timing is always the factor, I favour portfolios with downward exposure, be they long vol, long puts the Nikkei/Kospi/Dax/Dow/S&amp;P or outright shorts on those indices</li><li>On currencies, even though I feel we are in a USD liquidation phase, tactically I favour risk-off crosses such as Short AUDJPY, Short NZDJPY, short GBPJPY. With that said EURUSD should take out 1.15 this week from Friday sub 1.14 close </li><li>On commodities, once again Gold miners GDX &amp; spot – remember the call people, we will see $1500 sooner than you think. And on bonds, once again US10yrs, yes at 1.75% they are tight. But it’s a relative world with JGBs &amp; Bund at -7bp &amp; +9bp &amp; key event risks in Jun &amp; Jul globally, +1.75% is a steal…</li><li>Lots of data due out this week: US earnings season kicks off today, globally its an inflation themed week &amp; there will be a big focus on China’s GDP due out on Fri (15)</li></ul>

Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the critical 110 level like fish through waterUSDJPY at 108.07 on Friday is now down -9% &amp; -1% from QE III &amp; QE II rounds in JapanWhilst timing is always the factor, I favour portfolios with downward exposure, be they long vol, long puts the Nikkei/Kospi/Dax/Dow/S&amp;P or outright shorts on those indicesOn currencies, even though I feel we are in a USD liquidation phase, tactically I favour risk-off crosses such as Short AUDJPY, Short NZDJPY, short GBPJPY. With that said EURUSD should take out 1.15 this week from Friday sub 1.14 close On commodities, once again Gold miners GDX &amp; spot – remember the call people, we will see $1500 sooner than you think. And on bonds, once again US10yrs, yes at 1.75% they are tight. But it’s a relative world with JGBs &amp; Bund at -7bp &amp; +9bp &amp; key event risks in Jun &amp; Jul globally, +1.75% is a steal…Lots of data due out this week: US earnings season kicks off today, globally its an inflation themed week &amp; there will be a big focus on China’s GDP due out on Fri (15)

Global Macro Take: WK 15. False Gods Be Damned….

United States

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based insurance and financial services company that provides reinsurance and insurance products on a worldwide basis.

American International Group, Inc. is an international insurance organization serving commercial, institutional and individual customers. AIG provides property-casualty insurance, life insurance and retirement services.

MetLife, Inc. provides individual insurance, employee benefits and financial services with operations throughout the United States and the regions of Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The Company's products include life insurance, annuities, automobile and homeowners insurance, retail banking and other financial services to individuals as well as group insurance.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries provide insurance brokerage, risk management, employee benefit, and other related services to clients in the United States and abroad. The Company's principal activity is the negotiation and placement of insurance for its clients. Gallagher also specializes in furnishing risk management services.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. provides commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals.

Prudential Financial, Inc. provides financial services throughout the United States and several locations worldwide. The Company offers a variety of products and services, including life insurance, mutual funds, annuities, pension, and retirement related services, as well as administration and asset management.

Aflac, Inc. is a general business holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental insurance to individuals in the United States and Japan.  Aflac's products include accident/disability plans, cancer expense plans, short-term disability plans, sickness and hospital indemnity plans, hospital intensive care plans, and fixed-benefit dental plans.

The Allstate Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property-liability insurance, as well as other types of insurance in the United States and Canada. The Company primarily sells private passenger automobile and homeowners insurance through independent and specialized brokers. Allstate also sells life insurance, annuity, and group pension products through agents.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, offers property and casualty and life insurance.  The Company markets a variety of insurance products and provides leasing and financing services.

Markel Corporation markets and underwrites specialty insurance products and programs to a variety of niche markets.  The Company also underwrites a diverse property, casualty, marine, and aviation insurance and reinsurance business on a worldwide basis.

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through reorganization of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Company, Limited.  The Group writes marine, fire, casualty, automobile, life, and allied insurance policies. MS&AD Insurance Group also operates financial services and agencies.

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Company, Ltd. is an integrated insurance services provider. The Company offers life and property insurance products through its subsidiaries.

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. offers life and non-life insurance and reinsurance throughout the world.  The Company offers life, health, accident, automobile, marine, aviation, transport, fire, general liability, and credit insurance and reinsurance.

AXA SA is an insurance company which also provides related financial services. The Company offers life and non-life insurance, savings and pension products, and asset management services.  AXA operates in both domestic and international markets.

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (MunichRe) provides financial services. The Company offers reinsurance, insurance, and asset management services. MunichRe has subsidiaries in most major financial centers throughout the world.

Zurich Insurance Group AG provides insurance-based financial services. The Company offers general and life insurance products and services for individuals, small businesses, commercial enterprises, mid-sized and large corporations, and multinational companies.

Aon PLC is a professional services provider. The Company is comprised of risk and insurance brokerage consulting. Aon's services include helping manage risk for clients, negotiating and placing insurance risk with other carriers, and advising clients related to health and benefits, retirement, compensation, strategic human capital, and human resource outsourcing.

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Aon (AON US)

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK 23. Mon 6 Jun. The Global Macro Take: RBA, RBNZ but Really All About US Bonds

WK 23: Mon 6 Jun 2016. (As always thoughts/comments welcome…)Global Macro Take: WK 23 – RBA, RBNZ but really all about US Bonds Market will...

Kay Van-Petersen

Blockchain in the Financial Services Industry

Blockchain is quite the buzzword nowadays. Aided by the mystique of the technology underlying Bitcoin and a unique proposition of eliminating the...

Ishita Jain

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100 Again its all about the US Dollar & upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters… DXY at 95.52...

Kay Van-Petersen

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing. ...

Greg Gibbs

Global Macro Take: WK 15. False Gods Be Damned….

Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the...

Kay Van-Petersen

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