Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

Special Situations, Content Strategist, Smartkarma

Crispin Francis

Special Situations, Content Strategist

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

<h2>Latest News - Option Holders Condition Met 
</h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/389" target="_blank">Conch Cement</a>, the Offeror and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9423" target="_blank">West China Cement</a> are pleased to <a href="http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2016/0520/LTN20160520557.pdf" target="_blank">jointly announce</a> that the Condition has been satisfied as at the date of this joint announcement.<div class="content-remarks">Agreement is conditional upon, among other things, West China Cement having obtained signed Letters of Undertaking from those Optionholders listed in the Acquisition Agreement who in aggregate hold not less than 80% (after deduction of the number of Share Options held by Mr. Zhang, Mr. Ma and Dr.…</div>

Latest News - Option Holders Condition Met  
Conch Cement, the Offeror and West China Cement are pleased to jointly announce that the Condition has been satisfied as at the date of this joint announcement.Agreement is conditional upon, among other things, West China Cement having obtained signed Letters of Undertaking from those Optionholders listed in the Acquisition Agreement who in aggregate hold not less than 80% (after deduction of the number of Share Options held by Mr. Zhang, Mr. Ma and Dr.…

WCC / Conch - Optionholders Undertaking Condition Met

Independent Insight Provider

Hao Wang, CFA

This is a quick update from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/be-aggressive-in-q1-2016-and-be-defensive-through-rest-of-2016" target="_blank">my start-of-the year call</a> for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/008/126/original/2.png?1463320298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="8126"><figcaption class="figcaption">Dollar</figcaption></figure>…

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. Dollar…

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li class="p1">Our fair value estimate is HKD 17 per share, which implies a forward fiscal-year price/earnings of about 15 times, and an enterprise value/EBITDA of roughly 7 times.</li><li class="p1">After about two years of cement pricing declines, a new round of infrastructure spending in highway and railway in western regions, pipeline networks, and sewage treatment has helped awaken cement demand.</li><li class="p1">In the near term, we expect declining energy intensity of China’s GDP growth and excess coal supply to weigh on thermal coal prices. Lower investment in cement supply is also likely to help buoy cement prices.</li></ul>Analysts: Iris Tan &amp; Chokwai Lee

Our fair value estimate is HKD 17 per share, which implies a forward fiscal-year price/earnings of about 15 times, and an enterprise value/EBITDA of roughly 7 times.After about two years of cement pricing declines, a new round of infrastructure spending in highway and railway in western regions, pipeline networks, and sewage treatment has helped awaken cement demand.In the near term, we expect declining energy intensity of China’s GDP growth and excess coal supply to weigh on thermal coal prices. Lower investment in cement supply is also likely to help buoy cement prices.Analysts: Iris Tan &amp; Chokwai Lee

Anhui Conch Cement's 1Q Results In Line; Lower Product Prices Weigh on Margin

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for products with the coming building season and potential stimulus or by traders. All evidence points to the idea that steel price increases are driven by traders and not underlying activity. This appears to create excellent opportunity for a short play in the commodity sector and Hong Kong listed Chinese steel producers. Both steel and coal output and…

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for products with the coming building season and potential stimulus or by traders. All evidence points to the idea that steel price increases are driven by traders and not underlying activity. This appears to create excellent opportunity for a short play in the commodity sector and Hong Kong listed Chinese steel producers. Both steel and coal output and…

China

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silicate cements, slag silicate cements, composite silicate cements, cement clinkers, and other products. Anhui Conch Cement Cement markets its products throughout China and worldwide.

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Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One...

Robert Ciemniak

WCC / Conch - Optionholders Undertaking Condition Met

Latest News - Option Holders Condition Met Conch Cement, the Offeror and West China Cement are pleased to jointly announce that the Condition has...

Crispin Francis

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2....

Hao Wang, CFA

Anhui Conch Cement's 1Q Results In Line; Lower Product Prices Weigh on Margin

Our fair value estimate is HKD 17 per share, which implies a forward fiscal-year price/earnings of about 15 times, and an enterprise value/EBITDA...

Morningstar, Inc.

The Future of Chinese Steel Prices

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for...

Christopher Balding

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