Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Silicon Box January series B funding round in January 2024 pushed the advanced packaging startup into Unicorn status with a &gt;$1 billion valuation</li>
<li>In addition to their Singapore based 70,000 sq metre facility, they announced a second, $3.6 billion investment in Italy in March 2024</li>
<li>Despite their unicorn status and being in business for nigh on three years, we still have no specifics on the precise nature of the advanced packaging technology they are offering</li>
</ul>


Silicon Box January series B funding round in January 2024 pushed the advanced packaging startup into Unicorn status with a &gt;$1 billion valuation
In addition to their Singapore based 70,000 sq metre facility, they announced a second, $3.6 billion investment in Italy in March 2024
Despite their unicorn status and being in business for nigh on three years, we still have no specifics on the precise nature of the advanced packaging technology they are offering


Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Like last week, I will do a meta-level overview summary. That’s why I read these calls; to understand the whole, you must understand the parts.</li><li>Smartphone markets continue to recover, but the demand is sluggish, and handsets should be flattish for the year. Industrial is bottoming at multiple companies, and Skyworks looks like it lost RF share to Qorvo. Telecom looks to be bottoming (NXPI).</li><li>I think it's pretty clear that the automotive cycle should be bought, not sold. And we continue to see strength in consumers (AMKR, QCOM). I am starting to like the Rambus story again, as I think their client business, the PMIC, and potentially CXL businesses could add 200m+ incremental revenue on top of the DDR5 share story in the coming years.</li></ul>

Like last week, I will do a meta-level overview summary. That’s why I read these calls; to understand the whole, you must understand the parts.Smartphone markets continue to recover, but the demand is sluggish, and handsets should be flattish for the year. Industrial is bottoming at multiple companies, and Skyworks looks like it lost RF share to Qorvo. Telecom looks to be bottoming (NXPI).I think it's pretty clear that the automotive cycle should be bought, not sold. And we continue to see strength in consumers (AMKR, QCOM). I am starting to like the Rambus story again, as I think their client business, the PMIC, and potentially CXL businesses could add 200m+ incremental revenue on top of the DDR5 share story in the coming years.

Earnings (AMKR, RMBS, NXPI, SWKS, ENTG, QCOM, WOLF, QRVO, ACLS)

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.</li>
<li>Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.</li>
<li>Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.
Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.
Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

<ul><li>Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.</li><li>Reminder: in a first-in-first-out (FIFO) framework, the first into the inventory correction were PCs and Smartphones.</li><li>Then, networking and data center, and we are now seeing Industrial start their inventory correction cycle. I don’t think this is the last we will hear about this. </li></ul>

Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.Reminder: in a first-in-first-out (FIFO) framework, the first into the inventory correction were PCs and Smartphones.Then, networking and data center, and we are now seeing Industrial start their inventory correction cycle. I don’t think this is the last we will hear about this. 

Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM...)

United States

MA-COM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. provides high performance analog semiconductor solutions. The Company supplies semiconductors, active and passive components, and sub-assemblies for use in radio frequency, microwave, and millimeter wave applications. MA-COM Technology Solutions serves customers throughout the United States.

MKS Instruments, Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies instruments and components used to control and analyze gases in semiconductor manufacturing and similar industrial manufacturing processes. The Company's products are used to manufacture flat panel displays, magnetic and optical storage devices and media, solar cells, fiber optic cables, and diamond thin films.

Rambus Inc. designs, develops, licenses, and markets high-speed chip-to-chip interface technology to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness of consumer electronics, computer systems, and other electronic systems.  The Company licenses semiconductor companies to manufacture and sell memory and logic ICs incorporating Rambus interface technology.

Lattice Semiconductor Corporation designs, develops, and markets high speed programmable logic devices.  The Company's products provide electronic systems customers with quickly designed, easily configured components.  Lattice markets its products to original equipment manufacturers of communication, computing, industrial, and military systems.

Onto Innovation Inc. provides process control solutions and inspection systems. The Company offers solutions which primarily used in the fabrication of semiconductors and other solid-state devices, as well as industrial and scientific applications. Onto Innovation serves customers in the United States.

Cirrus Logic, Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company that develops audio and voice IC and software solutions for mobile communications, automotive entertainment, and consumer audio applications. Cirrus Logic is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Qorvo Inc, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of high performance analog and mixed signal integrated circuits for the communications markets. The Company's products are used for wireless communications applications such as cellular and PCS, cordless telephony, wireless LANs, industrial radios, wireless security and remote meter reading.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. manufactures components for the semiconductor industry. The Company designs, manufactures and services ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. Axcelis Technologies sells their products to semiconductor chip manufacturers worldwide.

Diodes Incorporated manufactures and supplies discrete, logic, and analog semiconductor devices to consumers in the electronics, computing, industrial, communications, and automotive markets. The Company's products include diodes, transistors, MOSFETs, single gate logic, LED drivers, and USB switches.

Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. manufactures power conversion, solar inverters and control systems used in plasma-based thin film production equipment. The Company's systems are integrated in semiconductor, data storage, flat panel display, and other industrial manufacturing equipment that use gaseous  plasmas to depositor etch thin film layers on materials such as silicon and glass.

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. operates in the business of researching, producing and selling of LED epitaxial wafers and wafers.

SCREEN Holdings Co Ltd.  manufactures and sell semiconductors, FPD devices, commercial printing and printed circuit boards(PCB). The company also provides additional services for its products.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

JCET Group Co., Ltd. operates in the semiconductor industry.  The Company's products include discrete devices and integrated circuits.  Through its subsidiaries, Jiangsu Changjiang also manufactures signal lamps used in industrial equipment and anti-theft door systems for consumer use.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

Amkor Technology, Inc. provides semiconductor packaging and test services.  The Company offers deep submicron wafer fabrication, wafer probe testing, integrated circuit packaging assembly and design, final testing, reliability testing, burn-in, and electrical characterization.

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Amkor Technology (AMKR US)

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Silicon Box Or Silicon Black Box?

Silicon Box, the Singapore-based advanced packaging startup launched in 2021, reached Unicorn status with their Series B in Jan '24. Yet the...

William Keating

Earnings (AMKR, RMBS, NXPI, SWKS, ENTG, QCOM, WOLF, QRVO, ACLS)

Like last week, I will do a meta-level overview summary. That’s why I read these calls; to understand the whole, you must understand the parts....

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

Taiwan rebounded strongly last week alongside Nvidia and U.S. tech. This week will be another major earnings week. Apple's edge AI for user privacy...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM...)

Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.

Fabricated Knowledge

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