Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major cities in China suggests fastest pace of inventory clearing for those cities in at least 5 years, driven by strong sales volume growth but also by lower land sales and new starts in several major cities.

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major cities in China suggests fastest pace of inventory clearing for those cities in at least 5 years, driven by strong sales volume growth but also by lower land sales and new starts in several major cities.

China Property: What Oversupply? Assessing Inventory Clearing Situation In Major 13 Cities

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Interest rates will remain lower, for longer. For banks with excess liquidity, this means margin pressure. We look at HSBC and STAN where liquidity is high.  An additional consideration are rising credit costs from a worsening economy. It was not a positive environment for these large, liquid banks before. It is now worse.Cash and equivalent of key large banks (US$ Bn)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/689/original/dt1.png?1467078004" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9689"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: SNL Financial</figcaption></figure>The most talked about event for years was when US rates would rise. HSBC latched onto this, indicating to…

Interest rates will remain lower, for longer. For banks with excess liquidity, this means margin pressure. We look at HSBC and STAN where liquidity is high.  An additional consideration are rising credit costs from a worsening economy. It was not a positive environment for these large, liquid banks before. It is now worse.Cash and equivalent of key large banks (US$ Bn)Source: SNL FinancialThe most talked about event for years was when US rates would rise. HSBC latched onto this, indicating to…

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Two recent reports on business confidence from the European Union and the American Chambers of Commerce in China show a marked fall in business confidence over the past year. Both reports share common concerns, although there are some marked differences, particularly on the question of innovation.

Two recent reports on business confidence from the European Union and the American Chambers of Commerce in China show a marked fall in business confidence over the past year. Both reports share common concerns, although there are some marked differences, particularly on the question of innovation.

US, EU Business Confidence Falls in China

China’s road to recovery does not seem to have gained any real momentum independent of credit fueled stimulus. The trade data of China is uneven and reveals a lot about the economic health and consumption. The debt support may have helped the economy for a while but shows its limits.A look at the country’s import and exports by volume reveals crucial information. Base commodity imports are shown in Figure 1 have been growing since the first of the year, even when the price impacts do not pass…

China’s road to recovery does not seem to have gained any real momentum independent of credit fueled stimulus. The trade data of China is uneven and reveals a lot about the economic health and consumption. The debt support may have helped the economy for a while but shows its limits.A look at the country’s import and exports by volume reveals crucial information. Base commodity imports are shown in Figure 1 have been growing since the first of the year, even when the price impacts do not pass…

China

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, also known as Chalco, is a producer of alumina and primary aluminum in China. The Company refines bauxite into alumina and smelts alumina to produce primary aluminum.

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Aluminum Corporation Of China (2600 HK)

China Property: What Oversupply? Assessing Inventory Clearing Situation In Major 13 Cities

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major...

Robert Ciemniak

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer...

Christopher Balding

Low Rates for Longer - Asian Banks

Interest rates will remain lower, for longer. For banks with excess liquidity, this means margin pressure. We look at HSBC and STAN where liquidity...

Daniel Tabbush

US, EU Business Confidence Falls in China

Two recent reports on business confidence from the European Union and the American Chambers of Commerce in China show a marked fall in business...

Bixmoor

Inside China's May 2016 Trade Data

China’s road to recovery does not seem to have gained any real momentum independent of credit fueled stimulus. The trade data of China is uneven...

Christopher Balding

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