Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Duolingo reported stronger than expected 3QFY23 results, including revenues of $137.6M (consensus: $132.2M) and net income of $2.8M. The company raised guidance for FY23 revenues and total bookings. </li>
<li>Stock indicated up ~9% after hours. Duolingo beat all key estimates. However, ABPDAU declined to $25.38, while net new ARR growth will slow in 4Q and the next fiscal year. </li>
<li>With a market cap of ~$8.2B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~14x and ~11x EV/Rev on my respective FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.</li>
</ul>


Duolingo reported stronger than expected 3QFY23 results, including revenues of $137.6M (consensus: $132.2M) and net income of $2.8M. The company raised guidance for FY23 revenues and total bookings. 
Stock indicated up ~9% after hours. Duolingo beat all key estimates. However, ABPDAU declined to $25.38, while net new ARR growth will slow in 4Q and the next fiscal year. 
With a market cap of ~$8.2B on a fully diluted basis, Duolingo shares trade at ~14x and ~11x EV/Rev on my respective FY23/FY24 estimates, a significant premium to comparable companies.


Duolingo: Rich Valuation and Limited Upside Despite Better Than Expected 3QFY23 Results

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Alphabet Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the quarter, with significant growth in its Search and YouTube segments, as well as momentum in Cloud services.</li><li>The goal is to provide more diverse information and multiple perspectives in search results while incorporating ads.</li><li>The company enables developers and organizations to build transformative products and services, mainly through Google Cloud, which witnessed continued growth, showcasing innovations in infrastructure, data, AI, workspace collaboration, and cybersecurity solutions.</li></ul>

Alphabet Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the quarter, with significant growth in its Search and YouTube segments, as well as momentum in Cloud services.The goal is to provide more diverse information and multiple perspectives in search results while incorporating ads.The company enables developers and organizations to build transformative products and services, mainly through Google Cloud, which witnessed continued growth, showcasing innovations in infrastructure, data, AI, workspace collaboration, and cybersecurity solutions.

Alphabet Inc: Cloud Innovations – A Glimpse into the Future of Tech! - Major Drivers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is at 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is at $350-$355 support. No "decisive" breakdowns quite yet as supports show signs of holding.</li>
<li>Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, making this a logical spot for small-caps to bounce and an attractive risk/reward for buyers</li>
<li>Continue to see signs of breadth possibly bottoming-out. Both the SPX and Russell 2000 and the % of stocks above their 50-day and 20-day MAs display bullish breadth divergences.</li>
</ul>


The SPX is at 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is at $350-$355 support. No "decisive" breakdowns quite yet as supports show signs of holding.
Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, making this a logical spot for small-caps to bounce and an attractive risk/reward for buyers
Continue to see signs of breadth possibly bottoming-out. Both the SPX and Russell 2000 and the % of stocks above their 50-day and 20-day MAs display bullish breadth divergences.


Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>New owner Elon Musk is blowing up Twitter in record time by driving away revenue, gutting headcount to levels unable to sustain the platform, and accelerating its legal jeopardy. </li>
<li>With Twitter now hurling toward bankruptcy, it's also running out of cash as well as places to get it.</li>
<li>Too bad Elon also has already has caused hundreds of millions in losses for Twitter's beleaguered bankers and his fellow equity buyers who he caused to "obviously" overpay. </li>
</ul>


New owner Elon Musk is blowing up Twitter in record time by driving away revenue, gutting headcount to levels unable to sustain the platform, and accelerating its legal jeopardy. 
With Twitter now hurling toward bankruptcy, it's also running out of cash as well as places to get it.
Too bad Elon also has already has caused hundreds of millions in losses for Twitter's beleaguered bankers and his fellow equity buyers who he caused to "obviously" overpay. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>KKR raised around US$730m via selling a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric's (6525 JP)</a> (KE) Japan IPO.</li>
<li>KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>In our previous notes we have looked at the company’s past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and looked at valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


KKR raised around US$730m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric's (6525 JP) (KE) Japan IPO.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In our previous notes we have looked at the company’s past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and looked at valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Kokusai Electric IPO Trading - Decent Demand, Now for the Real Test

United States

Alphabet Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOGL US)

Duolingo: Rich Valuation and Limited Upside Despite Better Than Expected 3QFY23 Results

My analysis suggests that Duolingo stock is overvalued, and the market has already priced in the organic 30%+ y/y growth along with improving...

Andrei Zakharov

Alphabet Inc: Cloud Innovations – A Glimpse into the Future of Tech! - Major Drivers

Alphabet Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the quarter, with significant growth in its Search and YouTube segments,...

Baptista Research

Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs

$RTY $IWM $SPX $SPY and the % of stocks above their 50-day MAs (and 20-day MAs) display bullish breadth divergences. Similar bullish divergences in...

Vermilion Research

Elon Is "Saving" Twitter To Death

I warned last year Elon Musk would siphon cash & resources from his other companies, especially Tesla, to fund his failing Twitter operation—likely...

Vicki Bryan

Kokusai Electric IPO Trading - Decent Demand, Now for the Real Test

KKR raised around US$730m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric's (6525 JP) (KE) Japan IPO. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

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