Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<p><strong>In this insight, we discuss the two contrasting views of what could happen next week in the United States on January 20th (Inauguration day of the next President of the United States). </strong></p><div class="content-highlight">
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>Overall, we would not claim to know if Trump will enact the Insurrection Act in order to recount the votes next week. It is premature for us to know what will exactly happen. However, we do want to highlight that it is unprecedented to have nearly 25,000 troops to secure Washington DC for the Inauguration day. While the dominant view in the media is that Biden will be inaugurated as the next US President, there is a (very) minority view that Trump could enact the Insurrection Act to have the military intervene and recount the votes in key swing states. </p>
</div>

In this insight, we discuss the two contrasting views of what could happen next week in the United States on January 20th (Inauguration day of the next President of the United States). 
Conclusion
Overall, we would not claim to know if Trump will enact the Insurrection Act in order to recount the votes next week. It is premature for us to know what will exactly happen. However, we do want to highlight that it is unprecedented to have nearly 25,000 troops to secure Washington DC for the Inauguration day. While the dominant view in the media is that Biden will be inaugurated as the next US President, there is a (very) minority view that Trump could enact the Insurrection Act to have the military intervene and recount the votes in key swing states. 


Two Contrasting Views of What Could Happen Next Week in the United States on January 20th

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. </p>
<p>Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. </p>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/498/original/image_2762037721610626999059.png?1610626999" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182498"></figure>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>source: Capital IQ</p>
</div>

Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. 
Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. 

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. 



source: Capital IQ


President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Solid state storage is now primary storage in many applications, driven by the wide-spread use of NAND flash.  NVMe is now the dominant SSD interface, enabling new network and storage architectures.  MRAM and 3D XPoint memory are appearing in many storage/memory products and the slow-down in NOR, SRAM and DRAM scaling are opening opportunities for RRAM and FRAM memories as well.  All these memory technologies are enabling established and startup companies.</p>

Solid state storage is now primary storage in many applications, driven by the wide-spread use of NAND flash.  NVMe is now the dominant SSD interface, enabling new network and storage architectures.  MRAM and 3D XPoint memory are appearing in many storage/memory products and the slow-down in NOR, SRAM and DRAM scaling are opening opportunities for RRAM and FRAM memories as well.  All these memory technologies are enabling established and startup companies.

Solid State Storage and Memory in 2021:  New Opportunities for Leaders and Startups

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*SAMR Sideshow: </em></strong>The State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) fined Alibaba Holdings (BABA.US) [Alibaba] on December 14, 2020, SAMR has also launched an inquiry into alleged monopolistic practices at Alibaba whereby it pressures merchants who sell goods on Taobao and Tmall to commit to not selling on competitor platforms which is considered “standard market practice” by Alibaba. The most equitable outcome to this practice, in our view, could be the termination of these exclusive relationships, which no doubt will negatively impact revenues – but this is just a sideshow; and</p><p><strong><em>*Moving A Rubber Tree Plant: </em></strong>More importantly, however, Alibaba’s Ant Group was summoned to meet with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) – which now follow the abrupt cancellation of Ant Group’s enormous USD 34 bn IPO – the largest IPO in history. A crackdown on Alibaba/Ant and other fintech firms was likely to happen at some point given the unbridled systemic risk they pose both on the lending and funding front which is overshadowed by technology.  </p>

*SAMR Sideshow: The State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) fined Alibaba Holdings (BABA.US) [Alibaba] on December 14, 2020, SAMR has also launched an inquiry into alleged monopolistic practices at Alibaba whereby it pressures merchants who sell goods on Taobao and Tmall to commit to not selling on competitor platforms which is considered “standard market practice” by Alibaba. The most equitable outcome to this practice, in our view, could be the termination of these exclusive relationships, which no doubt will negatively impact revenues – but this is just a sideshow; and*Moving A Rubber Tree Plant: More importantly, however, Alibaba’s Ant Group was summoned to meet with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) – which now follow the abrupt cancellation of Ant Group’s enormous USD 34 bn IPO – the largest IPO in history. A crackdown on Alibaba/Ant and other fintech firms was likely to happen at some point given the unbridled systemic risk they pose both on the lending and funding front which is overshadowed by technology.  

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starhub-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:119:1" rel="noopener">Starhub Ltd (STH SP)</a> pay-TV has been the problem child alongside the Mobile segment due to overcrowded space, led to a higher churn in the number of subscribers coupled with a lower ARPU, followed by a decline in the share price. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-walt-disney-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15439:1" rel="noopener">The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)</a> + coming to Singapore will cause a further decline in the Pay-TV ARPU. </p><p>Starhub's Enterprise Business which recently has gained momentum and for the first time in almost 3 years, its revenue contribution almost equaled Mobile's. As a result, the revenue in Q3 2020 went up 2% compared to the average of 1H 2020. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>After underperforming Singtel by 20% for the past 3 years, it is now maybe the time for Starhub to play catch up with the Enterprise Business finally is taking off. With a 3.6% higher yield than Singtel, Starhub sounds like a bargain. </p></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/179/625/original/image_25922309421608537778217.png?1608537778" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="179625"></figure><div class="content-remarks"><p>source: Capital IQ</p></div>

Starhub Ltd (STH SP) pay-TV has been the problem child alongside the Mobile segment due to overcrowded space, led to a higher churn in the number of subscribers coupled with a lower ARPU, followed by a decline in the share price. The Walt Disney Co (DIS US) + coming to Singapore will cause a further decline in the Pay-TV ARPU. Starhub's Enterprise Business which recently has gained momentum and for the first time in almost 3 years, its revenue contribution almost equaled Mobile's. As a result, the revenue in Q3 2020 went up 2% compared to the average of 1H 2020. After underperforming Singtel by 20% for the past 3 years, it is now maybe the time for Starhub to play catch up with the Enterprise Business finally is taking off. With a 3.6% higher yield than Singtel, Starhub sounds like a bargain. source: Capital IQ

Starhub (STH): Disney Is Coming but Enterprise Is Gaining Momentum

United States

Alphabet, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOG US)

Two Contrasting Views of What Could Happen Next Week in the United States on January 20th

In this insight, we discuss the two contrasting views of what could happen next week in the United States on January 20th (Inauguration day of the...

Douglas Kim

BlueBird (BIRD): Flying Higher

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite...

Henry Soediarko

Solid State Storage and Memory in 2021: New Opportunities for Leaders and Startups

Solid State Storage/Memory enables new applications in 2021, fueling storage systems and embedded device established and startup companies.

Thomas Coughlin

Alibaba Group Holding – Go Limp

ALIBABA GROUP HOLDINGS: SAMR And Chinese Regulators Are Taking A Run At Alibaba/Ant Group Over Antitrust and Systemic Risk Issues.

Thomas J. Monaco

Starhub (STH): Disney Is Coming but Enterprise Is Gaining Momentum

Starhub's Enterprise Business finally is taking off, almost equal to the Mobile. With a 3.6% higher yield than Singtel, Starhub sounds like a bargain.

Henry Soediarko

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