Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The S&amp;P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news ahead of the Trump/Xi G20 meeting later this week. While a breakout is certainly possible, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. In today's report we highlight a mix of positive and negative developments which lead us to this conclusion along with updates on other big picture trends. Also highlighted are attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Health Care, and Utilities: Gold, Western Hemisphere, Cardiovascular Products, and Gas, Midwest.

The S&amp;P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news ahead of the Trump/Xi G20 meeting later this week. While a breakout is certainly possible, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. In today's report we highlight a mix of positive and negative developments which lead us to this conclusion along with updates on other big picture trends. Also highlighted are attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Health Care, and Utilities: Gold, Western Hemisphere, Cardiovascular Products, and Gas, Midwest.

U.S. Dollar Breaking Down; Gold Breaking Out

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, and weakness in copper. Our outlook remains neutral. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples and Utilities.

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, and weakness in copper. Our outlook remains neutral. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples and Utilities.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities

The S&amp;P 500 was not able to break through the 2,817 and 100-day moving average resistance levels last week, and has now fallen abruptly back to test 2,600 support. For now our outlook remains cautious and we continue to expect heightened volatility and horizontal consolidation between the aforementioned support and resistance levels. Absent any real clarity in regards to Fed policy or U.S.-China trade relations, the S&amp;P 500 is vulnerable to a breakdown.  We highlight opportunities within Pharmaceuticals and Waste Services, two areas of the market with defensive characteristics that currently exhibit timely technicals.

The S&amp;P 500 was not able to break through the 2,817 and 100-day moving average resistance levels last week, and has now fallen abruptly back to test 2,600 support. For now our outlook remains cautious and we continue to expect heightened volatility and horizontal consolidation between the aforementioned support and resistance levels. Absent any real clarity in regards to Fed policy or U.S.-China trade relations, the S&amp;P 500 is vulnerable to a breakdown.  We highlight opportunities within Pharmaceuticals and Waste Services, two areas of the market with defensive characteristics that currently exhibit timely technicals.

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

We remain extremely cautious and expect consolidation, volatility, and lower prices to continue as the market searches for a bottom.  In today's report we recap our U.S. equity investment thesis and highlight attractive Groups within Services and Utilities: SV-16 Waste Services, Small-Cap, and UT-06 Electric, Midwest.

We remain extremely cautious and expect consolidation, volatility, and lower prices to continue as the market searches for a bottom.  In today's report we recap our U.S. equity investment thesis and highlight attractive Groups within Services and Utilities: SV-16 Waste Services, Small-Cap, and UT-06 Electric, Midwest.

U.S. Equity Update - Cautious Outlook, Downgrading Manufacturing

United States

Avangrid, Inc. operates as an energy services holding company. The Company engages in the regulated energy transmission and distribution business through wind and solar power, as well as natural gas utilities. Avangrid serves customers in the United States.

Evergy, Inc. provides electricity generation, transmission, and distribution services. The Company offers its services in the United States.

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation is a utility holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiary, provides either retail or wholesale electric service to most of the State of Arizona. The Company, through a subsidiary, also is involved in real estate development activities in the western United States.

OGE Energy Corp., through its principal subsidiary Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company, generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to wholesale and retail customers in communities in Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The Company, through Enogex Inc., operates natural gas transmission and gathering pipelines, has interests in gas processing plants, and markets electricity.

Eversource Energy is a public utility holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail electric service to customers in Connecticut, New Hampshire, and western Massachusetts.  Eversource Energy also distributes natural gas throughout Connecticut.

PPL Corporation is an energy and utility holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, generates electricity from power plants in the northeastern and western United States, and markets wholesale and retail energy primarily in the northeastern and western portions of the United States, and delivers electricity in Pennsylvania and the United Kingdom.

IDACORP, Inc is the holding company for Idaho Power Company, an electric utility and IDACORP Energy, an energy marketing company.  Idaho Power generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electric energy in southern Idaho, eastern Oregon, and northern Nevada.  IDACORP Energy maintains electricity and natural gas marketing operations.

FirstEnergy Corp. is a public utility holding company. The Company's subsidiaries and affiliates are involved in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity, exploration and production of oil and natural gas, transmission and marketing of natural gas, and energy management and other energy-related services.

Entergy Corporation is an integrated energy company that is primarily focused on electric power production and retail electric distribution operations. The Company delivers electricity to utility customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. Entergy also owns and operates nuclear plants in the northern United States

Portland General Electric Company is an electric utility involved in the generation, purchase, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity in Oregon.  The Company also participates in the wholesale market by purchasing and selling electricity and natural gas to utilities and energy marketers.

Portland General Electric Company (POR US)

CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited (CKI) operates as a real assets investment company. The Company invests in energy, transportation, water, and electricity generation sectors. CKI serves customers worldwide.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP owns and operates infrastructure assets. The Company operates utilities, transport, energy, and communications infrastructure assets in North and South America, Australia, and Europe.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (BIP US)

Power Assets Holdings Limited invests in power generation, transmission and distribution as well as gas distribution. The Company has investments in Hong Kong, Australia, Canada, China, New Zealand and Thailand.

The Kansai Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates electricity from hydroelectric, thermal, geothermal, and nuclear power sources.  The Company distributes electricity to Osaka and the surrounding Kansai area.  Kansai Electric also constructs and maintains electrical power facilities.

Terna - Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA transmits electricity over the high-voltage and extra-high voltage grid in Italy.  Through subsidiaries, the Company owns a substantial share of the national electricity transmission grid.

Terna - Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN IM)

Fortum Oyj provides a full range of energy related products and services. The Company's activities cover the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat and steam, as well as the operation of power plants and energy-related services. Fortum operates worldwide but mainly in Northern Europe.

Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A. (Eletrobras) generates, transmits, and markets electricity through regional companies in Brazil.  The Company plans, finances, coordinates, and supervises expansion projects for its subsidiaries.

Adani Transmission Limited provides utility services. The Company offers electricity generation, transmission, and distribution services. Adani Transmission conducts its business globally.

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras-Sp Adr (EBR US)

Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to South Korea for a variety of uses. The Company also builds and operates hydro-power, thermal-power, and nuclear power units in South Korea.

Alliant Energy Corporation provides public-utility service to customers in the Midwest.  The Company's utility subsidiaries serve electric, natural gas, and water customers in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

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Alliant Energy (LNT US)

U.S. Dollar Breaking Down; Gold Breaking Out

The S&P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Revisiting 2,600 Support

The S&P 500 was not able to break through the 2,817 and 100-day moving average resistance levels last week, and has now fallen abruptly back to...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Update - Cautious Outlook, Downgrading Manufacturing

We remain extremely cautious and expect consolidation, volatility, and lower prices to continue as the market searches for a bottom. In today's...

Vermilion Research

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