Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-transmission-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26712:1" rel="noopener">Adani Energy Solutions</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalyan-jewellers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29714:1" rel="noopener">Kalyan Jewellers</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkem-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26928:1" rel="noopener">Alkem Laboratories</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oberoi-realty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7188:1" rel="noopener">Oberoi Realty</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bombay-stock-exchange" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23694:1" rel="noopener">Bombay Stock Exchange</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas</a> have moved higher recently and that could result in the stocks being added to global passive portfolios.</li>
<li>Four of the names are high probability while two of the names could be added depending on the day of the week chosen.</li>
<li>We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.</li>
</ul>



Adani Energy Solutions, Kalyan Jewellers, Alkem Laboratories, Oberoi Realty, Bombay Stock Exchange and Voltas have moved higher recently and that could result in the stocks being added to global passive portfolios.
Four of the names are high probability while two of the names could be added depending on the day of the week chosen.
We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.


India: Positioning on Stocks with Potential Passive Inflows in November

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Alkem Laboratories Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkem-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26928:1" rel="noopener">Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN)</a> reports 1% revenue growth in Q4FY24. However, gross margin improved significantly backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in U.S.</li>
<li>For FY25, the company has guided for 10% YoY revenue growth, which is at par with the last five year’s average growth.</li>
<li>Alkem expects to maintain FY25 gross margin and EBITDA margin at the current level. As API prices have become mostly stable, there is limited room for further margin expansion.</li>
</ul>



Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN) reports 1% revenue growth in Q4FY24. However, gross margin improved significantly backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in U.S.
For FY25, the company has guided for 10% YoY revenue growth, which is at par with the last five year’s average growth.
Alkem expects to maintain FY25 gross margin and EBITDA margin at the current level. As API prices have become mostly stable, there is limited room for further margin expansion.


Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Sluggish Performance Expected In Near-Term; Time to Book Profit

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkem-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26928:1" rel="noopener">Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN)</a> is flying high on strong Q2 numbers. The shares rallied 23% since the company announced Q2FY24 result in early November, widely outperforming Nifty Pharma index.</li>
<li>In Q2FY24, revenue grew 12% YoY, and gross margin expanded 380bps to 61.4% backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in US market.</li>
<li>For the U.S. business, Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms for FY24. The company has reiterated FY24 gross margin guidance at 59.0–59.5%.</li>
</ul>



Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN) is flying high on strong Q2 numbers. The shares rallied 23% since the company announced Q2FY24 result in early November, widely outperforming Nifty Pharma index.
In Q2FY24, revenue grew 12% YoY, and gross margin expanded 380bps to 61.4% backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in US market.
For the U.S. business, Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms for FY24. The company has reiterated FY24 gross margin guidance at 59.0–59.5%.


Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders raised around US$530m in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma</a>(MP) IPO in May 2023. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders raised around US$530m in Mankind Pharma(MP) IPO in May 2023. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their lockup soon.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.


Mankind Pharma Lock-Up - A US$1.1bn+ Lockup Release

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma</a> is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison with some of the India listed and domestically focussed pharmaceutical firms.</li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison with some of the India listed and domestically focussed pharmaceutical firms.


Mankind Pharma Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - One of the Largest, with Better Growth and Margins

India

Alkem Laboratories Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company researches, develops, manufactures, and markets generic and branded pharmaceuticals. Alkem also provides nutraceuticals, functional foods, health foods, and herbal products.

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Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN)

India: Positioning on Stocks with Potential Passive Inflows in November

There are 4 high probability inclusions in Nov while 2 are low probability. Flow will be US$220m-305m, impact is 0.9-22x ADV and 4.4-42.5x delivery...

Brian Freitas