Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP)</a> last Friday announced earnings which beat expectations and raised forecasts well above consensus. But Implied H2 did not change, suggesting full-year is lowballed.</li>
<li>The company announced a buyback over 5 months, but today (Tuesday) announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback for the full size (6% or so) that morning. </li>
<li>It looks like insider selling, which in addition to being accretive would be bullish on a governance basis.</li>
</ul>



Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP) last Friday announced earnings which beat expectations and raised forecasts well above consensus. But Implied H2 did not change, suggesting full-year is lowballed.
The company announced a buyback over 5 months, but today (Tuesday) announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback for the full size (6% or so) that morning. 
It looks like insider selling, which in addition to being accretive would be bullish on a governance basis.


Suzuken Buyback (9987 JP) - The Best News In Years

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Major wholesalers in food, pharmaceuticals and books continue to prosper due to their role in both serving and protecting fragmented distribution channels.</li>
<li>Profits returned last year as clients picked themselves up after Covid, but as inflation sets in, these middlemen are being squeezed by both manufacturers and retailers and profits may slump.</li>
<li>They now need to offer an ever increasing array of value-added services to continue to grow and not all have the capability. More M&amp;A may be on the cards.</li>
</ul>


Major wholesalers in food, pharmaceuticals and books continue to prosper due to their role in both serving and protecting fragmented distribution channels.
Profits returned last year as clients picked themselves up after Covid, but as inflation sets in, these middlemen are being squeezed by both manufacturers and retailers and profits may slump.
They now need to offer an ever increasing array of value-added services to continue to grow and not all have the capability. More M&amp;A may be on the cards.


Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1" rel="noopener">Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP)</a> reported revenue decline in FY21. Apart from market wide negative impact of COVID-19 and drug price revision, suspended qualification for public bidding tenders affected the company.</li>
<li>In FY22, the company is expected to be back to its growth path with less impact of bidding suspension and increasing focus on high growth areas.</li>
<li>According to its 2022–2024 mid-term management plan, Alfresa targets to achieve a revenue of ¥2.7 trillion and operating income margin of 1.5% or higher by FY25.</li>
</ul>



Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP) reported revenue decline in FY21. Apart from market wide negative impact of COVID-19 and drug price revision, suspended qualification for public bidding tenders affected the company.
In FY22, the company is expected to be back to its growth path with less impact of bidding suspension and increasing focus on high growth areas.
According to its 2022–2024 mid-term management plan, Alfresa targets to achieve a revenue of ¥2.7 trillion and operating income margin of 1.5% or higher by FY25.


Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): Looking Ahead Through 2022–25 Mid-Term Management Plan

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medipal-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18394:1" rel="noopener">Medipal Holdings (7459 JP)</a> reported strong revenue growth in pharmaceutical wholesale business, while its cosmetics distribution business reported lower-than-expected revenue in FY22. FY23 operating profit target was set below consensus.</li>
<li>Lower demand for hygiene-related products in domestic market and lesser foreign tourists arrival in Japan are expected to negatively impact Medipal’s cosmetics distribution business.</li>
<li>NHI drug price revisions are the biggest challenge in pharmaceutical wholesale business. Medipal’s largest revenue contributing drug, Takecab saw a 15.8% price reduction effective April 1.</li>
</ul>



Medipal Holdings (7459 JP) reported strong revenue growth in pharmaceutical wholesale business, while its cosmetics distribution business reported lower-than-expected revenue in FY22. FY23 operating profit target was set below consensus.
Lower demand for hygiene-related products in domestic market and lesser foreign tourists arrival in Japan are expected to negatively impact Medipal’s cosmetics distribution business.
NHI drug price revisions are the biggest challenge in pharmaceutical wholesale business. Medipal’s largest revenue contributing drug, Takecab saw a 15.8% price reduction effective April 1.


Medipal Holdings (7459 JP): Disappointing FY23 Guidance and Challenging Business Environment

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/110/839/original/2019-12-17_10-16-56.png?1576545466" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="110839"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. </p>
</div><div><div><p>Following on from our previous Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-december-sector-peer-group-relative-price-scores-from-defensives-to-cylicals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35266" rel="noopener">December Sector &amp; Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals</a> which covered <strong>Sectors</strong> and <strong>Peer Groups</strong>, in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we update our list of Overbought and Oversold large-cap companies (market capitalisation over ¥100b) with the current <strong>Very Overbought</strong> (RPS&gt;5), <strong>Too-Late-To-Buy</strong> (RPS &gt;4.5) and <strong>Oversold</strong> (RPS &lt;-2) companies, as well as the largest positive and negative <strong>3-month Changes</strong> in RPS adding some stock-specific comments in each category.</p></div></div>


• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES •
Source: Japan Analytics
COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. 
Following on from our previous Insight December Sector &amp; Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals which covered Sectors and Peer Groups, in the DETAIL section below, we update our list of Overbought and Oversold large-cap companies (market capitalisation over ¥100b) with the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4.5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) companies, as well as the largest positive and negative 3-month Changes in RPS adding some stock-specific comments in each category.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • December Company Relative Price Scores - Opportunities in the Outliers

Japan

Alfresa Holdings Corporation is a holding company established through the merger of Azwell Inc. and Fukujin Co., Ltd.  The Company's subsidiaries mainly wholesale and manufacture medical related products including medicines, reagents, and medical tools and equipment.

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Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP)

Suzuken Buyback (9987 JP) - The Best News In Years

Suzuken' earnings were good. Forecasts only reflect the past. H2 implieds were unch'd. Buyback announced = ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow should finish....

Travis Lundy

Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Wholesalers in Japan had a good year last year. The biggest firms like Medipal may prosper but there are challenges for the sector which could...

Michael Causton