Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Consideration: 0.3277 VALMT FH x 1 NELES FH plus a €2/share before the merger (record date 24 March). Upon announcement: 11.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 19.3x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>All conditions have been cleared and approvals obtained. Completion is expected to take place on 1 April. Valmet seems to be the big winner in this merger.</li>
<li>Gross spread is currently -0.4%, so I would recommend monitoring the spread in case it turns positive.</li>
</ul>


Consideration: 0.3277 VALMT FH x 1 NELES FH plus a €2/share before the merger (record date 24 March). Upon announcement: 11.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 19.3x Fwd P/E.
All conditions have been cleared and approvals obtained. Completion is expected to take place on 1 April. Valmet seems to be the big winner in this merger.
Gross spread is currently -0.4%, so I would recommend monitoring the spread in case it turns positive.


Risk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).

Risk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

On 2 November, <a href="https://tenderoffer.alfalaval.com/pdf/Alfa%20Laval%20-%20Preliminary%20Result%20of%20the%20Tender%20Offer%20Release%20-%20ENG.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alfa Laval AB published the preliminary result</a> of the offer:
<ul>
<li>It has received acceptances representing approximately 33% of the shares in Neles.</li>
</ul>
Alfa Laval said that it "will confirm and announce the final result of the offer on or about 4 November". If Alfa Laval does not achieve &gt;50% of Neles' shares, which is the most likely case, this could leave Valmet in a better position to pursue its Neles merger ambitions, on its own terms.
Neles shares closed on 3 November at 10.49, c. 9% below Alfa Laval's bid.
Valmet shares have lost €3.54 (c. 15%) since <a href="https://www.valmet.com/media/news/stock-exchange-releases/2020/valmet-acquires-14.9-ownership-in-the-future-neles/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcing the acquisition</a> of a 14.9% stake in Neles on 17 June. If Alfa's bid fails this likely leaves Valmet as the only obvious buyer (with a 29.57% stake in Neles, it is unlikely that any other bidder enters the fray).
The implied equity valuation of Neles on a NTM EV/EBITDA median multiple is €13.72 per share and on a NTM EPS median multiple is €13.0 per share. Taking an average of both gives €13.36 per share. Valmet could better by 16% the almost failed bid by Alfa Laval (c. 28% upside to the current level where Neles shares are trading).
Valmet would likely issue shares for an amount of €1,413 mn (a 31% dilution). The Finnish state (11.2% of Valmet) supports Valmet's pursuit of Neles.
I believe that given Valmet's interest on Neles, there is upside to Neles' share price, and recommend LONG NELES. Once Alva Laval retires, further negotiations between Neles and Valmet will likely take place, followed by a bid from Valmet on terms clearer than the initial approach and with a more detailed account of synergies, in my view.

On 2 November, Alfa Laval AB published the preliminary result of the offer:

It has received acceptances representing approximately 33% of the shares in Neles.

Alfa Laval said that it "will confirm and announce the final result of the offer on or about 4 November". If Alfa Laval does not achieve &gt;50% of Neles' shares, which is the most likely case, this could leave Valmet in a better position to pursue its Neles merger ambitions, on its own terms.
Neles shares closed on 3 November at 10.49, c. 9% below Alfa Laval's bid.
Valmet shares have lost €3.54 (c. 15%) since announcing the acquisition of a 14.9% stake in Neles on 17 June. If Alfa's bid fails this likely leaves Valmet as the only obvious buyer (with a 29.57% stake in Neles, it is unlikely that any other bidder enters the fray).
The implied equity valuation of Neles on a NTM EV/EBITDA median multiple is €13.72 per share and on a NTM EPS median multiple is €13.0 per share. Taking an average of both gives €13.36 per share. Valmet could better by 16% the almost failed bid by Alfa Laval (c. 28% upside to the current level where Neles shares are trading).
Valmet would likely issue shares for an amount of €1,413 mn (a 31% dilution). The Finnish state (11.2% of Valmet) supports Valmet's pursuit of Neles.
I believe that given Valmet's interest on Neles, there is upside to Neles' share price, and recommend LONG NELES. Once Alva Laval retires, further negotiations between Neles and Valmet will likely take place, followed by a bid from Valmet on terms clearer than the initial approach and with a more detailed account of synergies, in my view.

Neles - Alfa Laval: Preliminary Results, Valmet

On 15 October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfa-laval-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22270:1" rel="noopener">Alfa Laval AB (ALFA SS)</a> amended its recommended offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neles-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29195:1" rel="noopener">Neles Oyj (NELES FH)</a>:
<ul>
<li>acceptance level condition lowered to &gt;50%</li>
<li>offer period to expire on 30 October 2020 at 4:00 p.m. (Finnish time)</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/valmet-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21789:1" rel="noopener">Valmet OYJ (VALMT FH)</a> has increased its stake in Neles from 14.88% to 29.54%.
Now, considering that the float (ex-Cevian's, ex-Valmet's) is 59.58%, 65.65% of the float shareholders must tender their shares to satisfy the minimum acceptance condition, even harder than before. Top shareholders in Neles, which together own 7.87% of Neles, are also top shareholders in Valmet. I suspect that Valmet is courting them.
Valmet's proposal will likely act as a support for Neles, even after the 30 October expiration of Alfa Laval's offer.
<div>
<ul>
<li>The chances of Alfa Laval's offer to succeed are increasingly dim, in my view, due to the holdings of Valmet and those of ETFs, in spite of Neles' preference for Alfa Laval bid.</li>
<li>a 2/3rds majority at Neles EGM would be required to carry out a statutory cross border merger. Valmet's holding makes reaching that threshold a bit difficult, to say the least. </li>
</ul>
It is highly likely that Valmet will come back with a stronger offer (more dilutive for Valmet's shareholders). Please note that the share price of Valmet has been decreasing since 9 September on the back of the likelihood of a counterbid.
I suspect that Valmet purchases have helped to keep Neles share price above Alfa Laval's price offer. Although I believe that the downside risk in Neles is contained, there is the possibility of a bump and I would wait for further decreases in the share price of Neles to build a position. 
</div>
On an exchange ratio basis, considering a 6% increase to Alfa Laval's offer, Valmet would issue c.42% new shares.

On 15 October, Alfa Laval AB (ALFA SS) amended its recommended offer for Neles Oyj (NELES FH):

acceptance level condition lowered to &gt;50%
offer period to expire on 30 October 2020 at 4:00 p.m. (Finnish time)

Valmet OYJ (VALMT FH) has increased its stake in Neles from 14.88% to 29.54%.
Now, considering that the float (ex-Cevian's, ex-Valmet's) is 59.58%, 65.65% of the float shareholders must tender their shares to satisfy the minimum acceptance condition, even harder than before. Top shareholders in Neles, which together own 7.87% of Neles, are also top shareholders in Valmet. I suspect that Valmet is courting them.
Valmet's proposal will likely act as a support for Neles, even after the 30 October expiration of Alfa Laval's offer.


The chances of Alfa Laval's offer to succeed are increasingly dim, in my view, due to the holdings of Valmet and those of ETFs, in spite of Neles' preference for Alfa Laval bid.
a 2/3rds majority at Neles EGM would be required to carry out a statutory cross border merger. Valmet's holding makes reaching that threshold a bit difficult, to say the least. 

It is highly likely that Valmet will come back with a stronger offer (more dilutive for Valmet's shareholders). Please note that the share price of Valmet has been decreasing since 9 September on the back of the likelihood of a counterbid.
I suspect that Valmet purchases have helped to keep Neles share price above Alfa Laval's price offer. Although I believe that the downside risk in Neles is contained, there is the possibility of a bump and I would wait for further decreases in the share price of Neles to build a position. 

On an exchange ratio basis, considering a 6% increase to Alfa Laval's offer, Valmet would issue c.42% new shares.

Neles - Alfa Laval: Lowered Acceptance Threshold, Extended Period. Enter Valmet.

Sweden

Alfa Laval AB provides specialized products and engineering solutions.  The Company's product line includes equipment and systems for heating, cooling, separation, and transportation of products such as oil, water, chemicals, beverages, starch, foodstuffs, and pharmaceuticals.  Alfa Laval sells and markets worldwide.

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Alfa Laval AB (ALFA SS)

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Valmet/Neles: Merger Completion

All conditions have been cleared and approvals obtained. Completion is expected to take place on 1 April. Valmet seems to be the big winner in this...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add Exposure

Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure...

Vermilion Research

Neles - Alfa Laval: Preliminary Results, Valmet

Once Alva Laval retires, Neles and Valmet will negotiate, and a bid from Valmet should happen, in my view. There is upside to Neles' share price,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Neles - Alfa Laval: Lowered Acceptance Threshold, Extended Period. Enter Valmet.

It is highly likely that Valmet will return with a stronger offer. Although I believe that the downside risk in Neles is contained, I would wait...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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