Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Thai labor cost is now the highest in the region after Singapore and Malaysia, so we are bearish on Thai industrial estates. Japanese manufacturer will diversify outside Thailand, one of their largest foreign production base, into Vietnam, Indonesia, and other ASEAN countries. In our view, growth outlook is more important than valuations in a sunset industry, so we prefer to look at Amata VN and AKR Corporindo of Indonesia. Many of the Thai IE developers also have their own problems outside the core business.We also examine network contractors given the torrid construction of 4G networks. While we like their growth, we are rather worried about their high valuations. Value investors can look to AIT and MFEC, which are more attractively valued and have very high yields, even if AIT has scaled back on some of its prior ambitions in Myanmar. For those who hold SAMART, we strongly urge you to sell the stock, because it trades at a big premium to its NAV. In addition, there is risk that the stock will not recover unless a Thaksinite candidate wins the elections in late 2017.

Thai labor cost is now the highest in the region after Singapore and Malaysia, so we are bearish on Thai industrial estates. Japanese manufacturer will diversify outside Thailand, one of their largest foreign production base, into Vietnam, Indonesia, and other ASEAN countries. In our view, growth outlook is more important than valuations in a sunset industry, so we prefer to look at Amata VN and AKR Corporindo of Indonesia. Many of the Thai IE developers also have their own problems outside the core business.We also examine network contractors given the torrid construction of 4G networks. While we like their growth, we are rather worried about their high valuations. Value investors can look to AIT and MFEC, which are more attractively valued and have very high yields, even if AIT has scaled back on some of its prior ambitions in Myanmar. For those who hold SAMART, we strongly urge you to sell the stock, because it trades at a big premium to its NAV. In addition, there is risk that the stock will not recover unless a Thaksinite candidate wins the elections in late 2017.

Twilight of Thai Investment: Industrial Estates and Network Contractors

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

While the ongoing slowdown in China and concerns about the global economy are expected to continue to weigh on Indonesia’s exports, gradually improving domestic demand is likely to see non-oil imports growth move back into positive territory. The four rate cuts that Bank Indonesia has undertaken since the start of 2016 is expected to provide a lift to domestic demand in the economy.On a 3 month moving average (3mma) basis, exports declined 8.8% y-o-y in June compared to a decline of 11.9% in…

While the ongoing slowdown in China and concerns about the global economy are expected to continue to weigh on Indonesia’s exports, gradually improving domestic demand is likely to see non-oil imports growth move back into positive territory. The four rate cuts that Bank Indonesia has undertaken since the start of 2016 is expected to provide a lift to domestic demand in the economy.On a 3 month moving average (3mma) basis, exports declined 8.8% y-o-y in June compared to a decline of 11.9% in…

Indonesia: Non-Oil Imports Growth Likely to Turn Positive on Gradually Improving Domestic Demand

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<div class="content-highlight">The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors.</div> We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: <ul><li><div class="content-highlight">The failure of some…</div></li></ul>

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors. We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: The failure of some…

Indonesia

PT AKR Corporindo Tbk distributes chemical products such as caustic soda, Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) resin, sorbitol, soda ash, and sodium sulfate.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures chemicals, operates storage tanks and warehouses, and provides logistic services.

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AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)

Twilight of Thai Investment: Industrial Estates and Network Contractors

Thai labor cost is now the highest in the region after Singapore and Malaysia, so we are bearish on Thai industrial estates. Japanese manufacturer...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Indonesia: Non-Oil Imports Growth Likely to Turn Positive on Gradually Improving Domestic Demand

While the ongoing slowdown in China and concerns about the global economy are expected to continue to weigh on Indonesia’s exports, gradually...

Rajan Govil

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months...

Rajan Govil

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption....

Bixmoor

Beware Impairments in EM and Asia

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for...

Mark Artherton

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