China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

July Pre PMI ReportAfter a hot start this year the Chinese economy has plateaued and appeared to enter a slow downward trend with no sign of returning to strong growth. The start of the third quarter can be termed as disappointing as the key industries have also stated to show the effects of broader slowdown.  Key industries linked to real estate that showed a bullish trend in previous months seem to be reverting to uncertainty or non-existent growth. The steel industry of China, which also…

July Pre PMI ReportAfter a hot start this year the Chinese economy has plateaued and appeared to enter a slow downward trend with no sign of returning to strong growth. The start of the third quarter can be termed as disappointing as the key industries have also stated to show the effects of broader slowdown.  Key industries linked to real estate that showed a bullish trend in previous months seem to be reverting to uncertainty or non-existent growth. The steel industry of China, which also…

Early Chinese July Data Shows Economic Activity Slowdown

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

In our initial note on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8239" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1">Air China Ltd (H)</a> in May, we recommended investors buy its shares based on several factors. First, two long-term "headwinds" -- high jet fuel prices and intense competition from China's High Speed Rail -- have abated (lower jet fuel prices are now a positive "tailwind", in fact). Just as important, Air China has managed to dramatically reduce Sales and Marketing expenses by cutting out intermediaries (such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.com International (ADR)</a>) and "going direct" to its…

In our initial note on Air China Ltd (H) in May, we recommended investors buy its shares based on several factors. First, two long-term "headwinds" -- high jet fuel prices and intense competition from China's High Speed Rail -- have abated (lower jet fuel prices are now a positive "tailwind", in fact). Just as important, Air China has managed to dramatically reduce Sales and Marketing expenses by cutting out intermediaries (such as Ctrip.com International (ADR)) and "going direct" to its…

Air China: International Demand and Fuel Still Tailwinds, CX Challenges Well-Known; Reiterate Buy

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

<h2>Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping</h2>More containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including old-design ships made redundant by the new Panama Canal.Drewry believes that, for the first time, 450,000teu of containership capacity is expected to be scrapped in just one year, as the containership sector recognises that there are far too many ships chasing too little cargo. Based on an average size of 3,000teu for ships which are being scrapped,…

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on ScrappingMore containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including old-design ships made redundant by the new Panama Canal.Drewry believes that, for the first time, 450,000teu of containership capacity is expected to be scrapped in just one year, as the containership sector recognises that there are far too many ships chasing too little cargo. Based on an average size of 3,000teu for ships which are being scrapped,…

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/010/306/original/Market-VIX-and-macroeconomic-volatility-GDPVol-CPIVol-VIX_chartbuilder.png?1468568433" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="10306"><figcaption class="figcaption">The Market and Macro Volatility (Source: FRED)</figcaption></figure> There are good surprises, and then there are the other kind, and the market of late has delivered quite a few of the latter. Fortunately, as we pointed out in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/macro-chart-focus-brexit-and-the-yen" target="_blank">post-Brexit review</a>  the “chaos premium” was quick to subside as markets realized that an exit from Europe is not so rapidly orchestrated.  We also pointed out however that the circumstances underlying the event may be one contributor to a longer-term market risk premium to be imposed upon…

 The Market and Macro Volatility (Source: FRED) There are good surprises, and then there are the other kind, and the market of late has delivered quite a few of the latter.   Fortunately, as we pointed out in our post-Brexit review  the “chaos premium” was quick to subside as markets realized that an exit from Europe is not so rapidly orchestrated.  We also pointed out however that the circumstances underlying the event may be one contributor to a longer-term market risk premium to be imposed upon…

Macro Chart Focus: Surprises and Uncertainty Premia

China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services throughout China, Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.  The Company also provides other airline related services including aircraft maintenance and air catering.

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

Air China Limited provides passenger, cargo, and airline-related services in China.  The Company is primarily based in Beijing and a major hub for domestic and international air transportation.  Air China's airline-related services include aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul service, ground services, and in-flight catering services.

Hainan Airlines Co., Ltd. provides passenger and freight air transportation. The Company also provides charter flight services. 

Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. offers air transportation services. The Company provides domestic air transportation, international air transportation, cargo transportation, and other services. Spring Airlines also offers ticket home delivery, insurance transaction, and other services.

Juneyao Airlines Co. Ltd. supplies air transportation services. The Company provides domestic and international routes for passengers and cargoes. Juneyao Airlines also offers ticket home delivery and electronic ticketing services.

China Express Airlines Co., Ltd. provides air transportation services. The Company offers passenger and freight air transportation, aviation equipment maintenance and aircraft leasing, ticket and hotel booking, consulting, and other services. China Express Airlines serves customers worldwide.

China Express Airlines Co Ltd (002928 CH)

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. mainly provides coal transportation service in Northern China. It also operates passenger transportation business.

Singapore Airlines Limited provides air transportation, engineering, pilot training, air charter, and tour wholesaling services. The Company's airline operation covers Asia, Europe, the Americas, South West Pacific, and Africa.

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

United Airlines Holdings Inc is an airline holding company.  The Company owns and operates airlines that transports persons, property and mail throughout the United States and abroad.

Southwest Airlines Co. is a domestic airline that provides primarily short-haul, high-frequency, point-to-point service.  The Company offers flights throughout the United States.

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. provides transportation services. The Company offers international and domestic air passenger and cargo transportation services. International Consolidated Airlines Group serves customers worldwide.

International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG LN)

International Consolidated Airlines Group

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is an airline that provides both domestic and international flight services.  The Company provides passenger and cargo services to destinations in Chile, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, North America, and the Pacific.  LATAM Airlines operates passenger aircraft and cargo freighters.

InterGlobe Aviation Limited provides passenger airlines services. The Company offers ground management, air transportation, terminal maintenance, and other services. InterGlobe Aviation conducts its business globally.

Turk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi (THY), also known as Turkish Airlines, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The Company serves all domestic destinations as well as the Middle East, North America, Europe, Asia, North Africa and South Africa.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

Qantas Airways Limited provides transportation of passengers through two airlines including Qantas (full service carrier) and Jetstar (low cost carrier), operating international, domestic and regional services. The Company also includes Qantas Frequent Flyer and Qantas Freight which generates diverse revenue streams and adds value for customers and investors.

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Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)

Early Chinese July Data Shows Economic Activity Slowdown

July Pre PMI ReportAfter a hot start this year the Chinese economy has plateaued and appeared to enter a slow downward trend with no sign of...

Christopher Balding

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid,...

Robert Ciemniak

Air China: International Demand and Fuel Still Tailwinds, CX Challenges Well-Known; Reiterate Buy

In our initial note on Air China Ltd (H) in May, we recommended investors buy its shares based on several factors. First, two long-term "headwinds"...

Daniel Hellberg

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on ScrappingMore containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Macro Chart Focus: Surprises and Uncertainty Premia

There are good surprises, and then there are the other kind, and the market of late has delivered quite a few of the latter. Fortunately, as we...

Naomi Fink

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