Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/179/678/original/BANNER-TTOtherDec20_GreyOrange.png?1608575984" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="179678"></figure></section>We launched this product about a month ago, promising to revisit our suggested pair trades every month or so. Returns on our three pair trade ideas since December 4? Not good, not good at all!If we consider only four of the six names that make up our three suggested pair trades, the portfolio returned a measly +0.2% between December 4 and January 6 (not including costs of trading). However, the two positions that moved hard against us -- which in reality we probably would have been forced to exit due to stop-loss orders -- resulted in a big loss for the portfolio. What happened? Unfortunately, we stepped in front of a surge in momentum in two small-cap names, one on the Long side and one one the Short side. We still believe longer-term trends favor these positions, but in the near-term,  price action simply overwhelmed our investment theses. Despite the substantial paper losses, we're sticking to our guns and keeping the portfolio as-is. We'll be back in a month or so with another update, hopefully with better returns to report.

We launched this product about a month ago, promising to revisit our suggested pair trades every month or so. Returns on our three pair trade ideas since December 4? Not good, not good at all!If we consider only four of the six names that make up our three suggested pair trades, the portfolio returned a measly +0.2% between December 4 and January 6 (not including costs of trading). However, the two positions that moved hard against us -- which in reality we probably would have been forced to exit due to stop-loss orders -- resulted in a big loss for the portfolio. What happened? Unfortunately, we stepped in front of a surge in momentum in two small-cap names, one on the Long side and one one the Short side. We still believe longer-term trends favor these positions, but in the near-term,  price action simply overwhelmed our investment theses. Despite the substantial paper losses, we're sticking to our guns and keeping the portfolio as-is. We'll be back in a month or so with another update, hopefully with better returns to report.

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Pair Trades Update: 'Want to See a Dead Body?' (January 7 2021)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-baiyun-international-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10819:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH)</a> achieved the least YoY decline in aircraft movement and cargo throughput in Dec, ending a rough year on a sweet note. In particular, domestic aircraft movement soared 21.8% and international cargo traffic rose 4.8% in last month, which are both very encouraging paces. GBIA's heavy domestic exposure - 87.7% of total aircraft movement and 94.1% of total passenger throughput - should provide a favourable traffic comparison base for 1Q21 given the domestic market was the hardest hit in 1Q20. The relatively fewer scattered local cases in southern China, for example, only 1 in Guangdong since Jun 2020, will likely mean the region is a better travel option in the upcoming month-long Winter Break, and this should be positive to GBIA.

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004 CH) achieved the least YoY decline in aircraft movement and cargo throughput in Dec, ending a rough year on a sweet note. In particular, domestic aircraft movement soared 21.8% and international cargo traffic rose 4.8% in last month, which are both very encouraging paces. GBIA's heavy domestic exposure - 87.7% of total aircraft movement and 94.1% of total passenger throughput - should provide a favourable traffic comparison base for 1Q21 given the domestic market was the hardest hit in 1Q20. The relatively fewer scattered local cases in southern China, for example, only 1 in Guangdong since Jun 2020, will likely mean the region is a better travel option in the upcoming month-long Winter Break, and this should be positive to GBIA. 

Guangzhou Baiyun Intl Airport (600004 CH): Concluding 2020 with a Sweet Note

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/179/973/original/BANNER-TourDec20.png?1608779882" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="179973"></figure></section>Outbound Chinese tourism activity remained dormant in November. Macau's recovery slowed, and the appearance of a new variant of the Covid19 virus suggests a potential recovery in Chinese outbound travel may be pushed back until at least the middle of 2021, maybe later. To our surprise, the recovery in domestic Chinese tourism also appears to have lost steam in November. Passenger counts at the three major national airlines fell YoY, and overall activity was well below that of October. Chinese consumers remain cautious towards discretionary travel. We believe Chinese travel demand will recover gradually in 2021, and that the recovery could gain momentum in the second half of the year. Still, the emergence of a new strain of the virus will likely cap outbound travel in the near-term, and it also appears the rebound in domestic demand is moderating. For now, we would avoid pricey travel-related stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a>.

Outbound Chinese tourism activity remained dormant in November. Macau's recovery slowed, and the appearance of a new variant of the Covid19 virus suggests a potential recovery in Chinese outbound travel may be pushed back until at least the middle of 2021, maybe later. To our surprise, the recovery in domestic Chinese tourism also appears to have lost steam in November. Passenger counts at the three major national airlines fell YoY, and overall activity was well below that of October. Chinese consumers remain cautious towards discretionary travel. We believe Chinese travel demand will recover gradually in 2021, and that the recovery could gain momentum in the second half of the year. Still, the emergence of a new strain of the virus will likely cap outbound travel in the near-term, and it also appears the rebound in domestic demand is moderating. For now, we would avoid pricey travel-related stocks like Trip.com (TCOM US).

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Domestic Recovery Lost Steam in November

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On December 26th, Beijing’s municipal government responded to a fresh outbreak of Covid19 by ordering residents to stay at home during the upcoming Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday. LNY falls on February 12th next year, barely six weeks from now.  
The bad news out of Beijing highlights an important risk to Chinese travel-related companies: that yet another important holiday period could effectively be lost to Covid19. If the restrictions put in place by local authorities in Beijing extend to other large cities or provinces, it could push back a recovery in Chinese travel demand until Summer 2021 or even Golden Week, in October 2021.
In this note we explain why LNY travel matters, and why we now believe normal levels of LNY travel may again be lost in 2021. We also point to the example of Macau, which continues to see sub-par tourism demand five months after it eased travel restrictions for some Chinese visitors.




On December 26th, Beijing’s municipal government responded to a fresh outbreak of Covid19 by ordering residents to stay at home during the upcoming Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday. LNY falls on February 12th next year, barely six weeks from now.  
The bad news out of Beijing highlights an important risk to Chinese travel-related companies: that yet another important holiday period could effectively be lost to Covid19. If the restrictions put in place by local authorities in Beijing extend to other large cities or provinces, it could push back a recovery in Chinese travel demand until Summer 2021 or even Golden Week, in October 2021.
In this note we explain why LNY travel matters, and why we now believe normal levels of LNY travel may again be lost in 2021. We also point to the example of Macau, which continues to see sub-par tourism demand five months after it eased travel restrictions for some Chinese visitors.

Dreams Deferred: Looks Like Lunar New Year Travel Demand May Be Lost

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Travelsky Technology Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> remains the de-facto SaaS play in the Chinese domestic airlines' industry that is proven by the higher ROE and lower debt level compared to the airlines in general. Volumes have recovered post the worse COVID-19 period thanks to the decisive government policy and as of October 2020, the YoY variance has narrowed to -1.3% compared to -46.7% in May 2020, further reinforcing the investment thesis that domestic travel that makes up to 85% of the group's business is recovering on the right direction. 
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Investors should treat <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> as an ETF to get exposure to the air travel recovery in China without the hassle of picking which airlines to buy.
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Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) remains the de-facto SaaS play in the Chinese domestic airlines' industry that is proven by the higher ROE and lower debt level compared to the airlines in general. Volumes have recovered post the worse COVID-19 period thanks to the decisive government policy and as of October 2020, the YoY variance has narrowed to -1.3% compared to -46.7% in May 2020, further reinforcing the investment thesis that domestic travel that makes up to 85% of the group's business is recovering on the right direction. 

Investors should treat Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) as an ETF to get exposure to the air travel recovery in China without the hassle of picking which airlines to buy.


Travelsky (696): Muted Impact from New Virus

China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services throughout China, Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.  The Company also provides other airline related services including aircraft maintenance and air catering.

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

Air China Limited provides passenger, cargo, and airline-related services in China.  The Company is primarily based in Beijing and a major hub for domestic and international air transportation.  Air China's airline-related services include aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul service, ground services, and in-flight catering services.

Hainan Airlines Co., Ltd. provides passenger and freight air transportation. The Company also provides charter flight services. 

Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. offers air transportation services. The Company provides domestic air transportation, international air transportation, cargo transportation, and other services. Spring Airlines also offers ticket home delivery, insurance transaction, and other services.

Juneyao Airlines Co. Ltd. supplies air transportation services. The Company provides domestic and international routes for passengers and cargoes. Juneyao Airlines also offers ticket home delivery and electronic ticketing services.

China Express Airlines Co., Ltd. provides air transportation services. The Company offers passenger and freight air transportation, aviation equipment maintenance and aircraft leasing, ticket and hotel booking, consulting, and other services. China Express Airlines serves customers worldwide.

China Express Airlines Co Ltd (002928 CH)

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. mainly provides coal transportation service in Northern China. It also operates passenger transportation business.

Singapore Airlines Limited provides air transportation, engineering, pilot training, air charter, and tour wholesaling services. The Company's airline operation covers Asia, Europe, the Americas, South West Pacific, and Africa.

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

United Airlines Holdings Inc is an airline holding company.  The Company owns and operates airlines that transports persons, property and mail throughout the United States and abroad.

Southwest Airlines Co. is a domestic airline that provides primarily short-haul, high-frequency, point-to-point service.  The Company offers flights throughout the United States.

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. provides transportation services. The Company offers international and domestic air passenger and cargo transportation services. International Consolidated Airlines Group serves customers worldwide.

International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG LN)

International Consolidated Airlines Group

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is an airline that provides both domestic and international flight services.  The Company provides passenger and cargo services to destinations in Chile, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, North America, and the Pacific.  LATAM Airlines operates passenger aircraft and cargo freighters.

InterGlobe Aviation Limited provides passenger airlines services. The Company offers ground management, air transportation, terminal maintenance, and other services. InterGlobe Aviation conducts its business globally.

Turk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi (THY), also known as Turkish Airlines, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The Company serves all domestic destinations as well as the Middle East, North America, Europe, Asia, North Africa and South Africa.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

Qantas Airways Limited provides transportation of passengers through two airlines including Qantas (full service carrier) and Jetstar (low cost carrier), operating international, domestic and regional services. The Company also includes Qantas Frequent Flyer and Qantas Freight which generates diverse revenue streams and adds value for customers and investors.

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Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Pair Trades Update: 'Want to See a Dead Body?' (January 7 2021)

One month in, our three suggested pair trades have generated returns ranging from "meh" to "You're fired!" In this note we take a look at what went...

Tracking Traffic

Guangzhou Baiyun Intl Airport (600004 CH): Concluding 2020 with a Sweet Note

Ending 2020 with good traffic in Dec, we expect a favourable traffic comparison base in 1Q21 than its peers. Its location also means that it will...

Osbert Tang, CFA

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Domestic Recovery Lost Steam in November

It appears the nascent recovery in Chinese domestic tourism activity began to stall in November. Outbound travel activity remains dormant, and even...

Tracking Traffic

Dreams Deferred: Looks Like Lunar New Year Travel Demand May Be Lost

We now believe there is a better than even chance that much of the Chinese travel demand normally associated with LNY will be lost in 2021.

Tracking Traffic

Travelsky (696): Muted Impact from New Virus

Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) is comparable to an ETF for investors who want to get exposure to the air travel recovery in China without...

Henry Soediarko

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