IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Sunshine Insurance Group  Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunshine-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36464:1" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK)</a>, a Chinese life and P&amp;C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunshine-insurance-group-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85205" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  </li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on Sunshine Life’s VNB margin decline and agent channel pressure; Sunshine P&amp;C’s regulatory pressure on premiums and the group's declining investment yield.</li>
</ul>



Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK), a Chinese life and P&amp;C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
In Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
The key elements of the bear case rest on Sunshine Life’s VNB margin decline and agent channel pressure; Sunshine P&amp;C’s regulatory pressure on premiums and the group's declining investment yield.


Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-mixc-lifestyle-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29285:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tingyi-cayman-islands-holding-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14016:1" rel="noopener">Tingyi Holding</a>.</li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC</a>.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Alibaba Group, Haier Smart Home, Kuaishou Technology, Li Auto, PetroChina, Tencent, JD.com, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services and Tingyi Holding.
The largest outflows will be on SMIC, NetEase, AIA Group, HSBC Holdings, China Construction Bank, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Innovent Biologics, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance and ICBC.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2022)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&amp;C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO.</li>
<li>SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&amp;H) and property and casualty (P&amp;C) insurance in China.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>


Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&amp;C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO.
SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&amp;H) and property and casualty (P&amp;C) insurance in China.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunshine-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36464:1" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK)</a>, a Chinese life and P&amp;C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In 2020, Sunshine P&amp;C ranked seventh and Sunshine Life ranked 12th as measured by original premiums income market share, according to the CBIRC and the Insurance Association of China.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on Sunshine Life’s robust premium growth and high persistency ratio; Sunshine P&amp;C’s underwriting profits in 9M22 and its high group solvency ratio.</li>
</ul>



Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK), a Chinese life and P&amp;C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
In 2020, Sunshine P&amp;C ranked seventh and Sunshine Life ranked 12th as measured by original premiums income market share, according to the CBIRC and the Insurance Association of China.
The key elements of the bull case rest on Sunshine Life’s robust premium growth and high persistency ratio; Sunshine P&amp;C’s underwriting profits in 9M22 and its high group solvency ratio.


Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 25th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 25th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 25th): Tencent, AIA, Great Wall Motor

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on Sunshine Life’s VNB margin decline and agent channel pressure; Sunshine P&C’s regulatory pressure on...

Arun George

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2022)

The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH indices will use today's close prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across the...

Brian Freitas

Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other

Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO. In this note, we undertake a...

Sumeet Singh

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on Sunshine Life’s robust premium growth and high persistency ratio; Sunshine P&C’s underwriting profits in...

Arun George

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 25th): Tencent, AIA, Great Wall Motor

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)