Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.</li>
<li>Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.
Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>The latest aggregate and fund level stock holding metrics among active China A-Share investors.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longi-green-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12703:1" rel="noopener">LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)</a>  are the most widely owned stocks in the A-Share universe</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:654:1" rel="noopener">Agricultural Bank of China (601288 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24562:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications (601328 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-pudong-devel-bank-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:736:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH)</a> mostly avoided by active A-Share Funds.</li>
</ul>


The latest aggregate and fund level stock holding metrics among active China A-Share investors.  

CATL (A) (300750 CH) , Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) and LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)  are the most widely owned stocks in the A-Share universe

Agricultural Bank of China (601288 CH) , Bank Of Communications (601328 CH) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH) mostly avoided by active A-Share Funds.


China A-Shares: Stock Positioning Chart Pack

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 2nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank, and Cnooc.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 2nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank, and Cnooc.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 2nd): Meituan, China Construction Bank, Cnooc

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

China

Agricultural Bank of China Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services. The Banks services includes RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, bill discount, currency trading, bank guarantee, and treasury bill underwriting.

Price Gauge
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Agricultural Bank of China (601288 CH)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

China A-Shares: Stock Positioning Chart Pack

How are China A-Share managers positioned? In this chart pack we look at the most widely held stocks, unloved stocks, the largest fund level stock...

Steven Holden

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 2nd): Meituan, China Construction Bank, Cnooc

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank, Cnooc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)