Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. NDIVIA scores leading Tech to drive SPX +0.9% into the green; Closer to a Debt Limit Deal;  Marvell Tech reports - Bullish On AI</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs 0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 140 on dovish Ueda comments; NVIDIA drives Japan AI supply chain gains; Foreigners continue to pour into Japan for 8th week.</li>
<li>NUGGET. Calbee, worth a 2nd look after the recent share price sell-off given their very credible medium term business plan.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. NDIVIA scores leading Tech to drive SPX +0.9% into the green; Closer to a Debt Limit Deal;  Marvell Tech reports - Bullish On AI
JAPAN.  NKY Futs 0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 140 on dovish Ueda comments; NVIDIA drives Japan AI supply chain gains; Foreigners continue to pour into Japan for 8th week.
NUGGET. Calbee, worth a 2nd look after the recent share price sell-off given their very credible medium term business plan.


Ohayo Japan |Tech..no, NVIDIA All the Way; NUGGET: Calbee - Time for a 2nd Look ?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX -0.7%, down again on inability to get a debt deal; Yellen's warnings keep coming; Fed Minutes - Officials mixed on hikes/pause; NVIDIA-BLOW OUT AI DRIVEN GUIDANCE</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.3% Discount to Cash; US debt limit weighs on Japans;  Fujitsu MTP - to return ¥600bn to shareholders over 3 yrs; Watch Advantest today on NVIDIA's guidance</li>
<li>NUGGET. Next Gen drinks development takes off as Sapporo Holdings(2501 JP) seeks competitive edge in drinks development by using AI</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX -0.7%, down again on inability to get a debt deal; Yellen's warnings keep coming; Fed Minutes - Officials mixed on hikes/pause; NVIDIA-BLOW OUT AI DRIVEN GUIDANCE
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.3% Discount to Cash; US debt limit weighs on Japans;  Fujitsu MTP - to return ¥600bn to shareholders over 3 yrs; Watch Advantest today on NVIDIA's guidance
NUGGET. Next Gen drinks development takes off as Sapporo Holdings(2501 JP) seeks competitive edge in drinks development by using AI


Ohayo Japan | US Stocks/Bond Sell Off (Again) On Debt Impass;NUGGET: Sapporo HD-Using AI to Get Edge

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.1% fails to make it 3 in a row; Talks paused, now resumed but deal distant; Powell set to pause hikes in June; More worries in US Regionals</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; Kishida hosts a successful G7 summit; April Core Inflation hits 4.1% - Gov Ueda says no early exit; More Japanese are job hopping=&gt;+ve Wages</li>
<li>NUGGET. Panasonic - Found Battery Religion (Finally!) - A more aggressive stance</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.1% fails to make it 3 in a row; Talks paused, now resumed but deal distant; Powell set to pause hikes in June; More worries in US Regionals
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; Kishida hosts a successful G7 summit; April Core Inflation hits 4.1% - Gov Ueda says no early exit; More Japanese are job hopping=&gt;+ve Wages
NUGGET. Panasonic - Found Battery Religion (Finally!) - A more aggressive stance


Ohayo Japan |Stall in Debt Talks = Stall in SPX; NUGGET: Panasonic - Found Religion (Finally !)

<ul>
<li>Consumption is on the rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. Inflation has been higher than the 2% goal, but still not entrenched according to the BoJ. </li>
<li>JGB yields drifted lower despite higher consumer inflation. Lower producer prices may hint that supply issues are normalizing. Stocks are on fire</li>
<li>Bulls adding to Japanese semiconductor equipment names. Global backdrop of AI but Japan also benefits as a "safe haven" destination for new capital investments</li>
</ul>


Consumption is on the rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. Inflation has been higher than the 2% goal, but still not entrenched according to the BoJ. 
JGB yields drifted lower despite higher consumer inflation. Lower producer prices may hint that supply issues are normalizing. Stocks are on fire
Bulls adding to Japanese semiconductor equipment names. Global backdrop of AI but Japan also benefits as a "safe haven" destination for new capital investments


Japan Weekly | Nikkei +4.8% to 31 Year High, Advantest, Recruit, Makita

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY Mar-24 guidance - sales down 14%, operating profit down 37% - is not extreme compared with previous cycles. </li>
<li>History shows that downturns at Advantest can last for two or even three years, not just one. Weak economic conditions add to this possibility.</li>
<li>The share price has rebounded from the recent sell-off, but optimism is unwarranted. Historical valuation ranges suggest potential downside of 20% or more.</li>
</ul>


FY Mar-24 guidance - sales down 14%, operating profit down 37% - is not extreme compared with previous cycles. 
History shows that downturns at Advantest can last for two or even three years, not just one. Weak economic conditions add to this possibility.
The share price has rebounded from the recent sell-off, but optimism is unwarranted. Historical valuation ranges suggest potential downside of 20% or more.


Advantest (6857 JP): 20% Potential Downside

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Ohayo Japan |Tech..no, NVIDIA All the Way; NUGGET: Calbee - Time for a 2nd Look ?

NVIDIA +24%. This says in All; NKY Futs 0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 140 on dovish Ueda comments; NVIDIA drives Japan AI supply chain gains;...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks/Bond Sell Off (Again) On Debt Impass;NUGGET: Sapporo HD-Using AI to Get Edge

Stocks and Bonds sell off in the US on ongoing debt limit impass; NKY Futs -0.3% Discount to Cash; Aggressive shareholder returns in Fujitsu's...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan |Stall in Debt Talks = Stall in SPX; NUGGET: Panasonic - Found Religion (Finally !)

Republican walkout stall SPX -0.1%. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; Kishida hosts a successful G7 summit; April Core Inflation hits 4.1% - Gov Ueda says no...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Nikkei +4.8% to 31 Year High, Advantest, Recruit, Makita

The Nikkei 225 rose 4.8% and the Topix gained 3.1% on the week on signs of progress with the US debt ceiling, corporate updates, and foreign...

Mark Chadwick

Advantest (6857 JP): 20% Potential Downside

FY Mar-24 guidance might look conservative, but it is not extreme by historical standards. Downturns at Advantest usually last for more than one...

Scott Foster

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)