ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This year's Jakarta Fair was a spectacle with large crowds, who were spending as well as enjoying all the discounted food on offer and viewing new products on show.</li>
<li>The highlights from the show were a plethora of 2W and 4W EVs, a notable presence from dairy players, and many financing options being offered by multi-finance and fintech players. </li>
<li>In the consumer sector, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy</a> (Cimory), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo</a> (ROTI), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a>, for auto exposure.</li>
</ul>


This year's Jakarta Fair was a spectacle with large crowds, who were spending as well as enjoying all the discounted food on offer and viewing new products on show.
The highlights from the show were a plethora of 2W and 4W EVs, a notable presence from dairy players, and many financing options being offered by multi-finance and fintech players. 
In the consumer sector, we like Mitra Adiperkasa, Ace Hardware Indonesia, Matahari Department Store, Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory), Ultrajaya Milk, PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI), and Astra International, for auto exposure.


Indonesia Consumer - Positive Impressions from the Jakarta Fair

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a></strong> / <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a></strong> circularity was too complex. Lots of people hated it. It was actually easier than most thought, but optically was difficult to reconcile. </li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a></strong> was a clear buy: there is no justification for assigning a similar discount for cash from the US Coke ops as you would to unlisted ops</li>
<li>A residual <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a></strong> individual small-holder shareholding tenure reward does not get split 25:1 when the stock gets split 25:1. It doesn't mean much, but it's an interesting artefact. </li>
</ul>


The Naspers (NPN SJ) / Prosus (PRX NA) circularity was too complex. Lots of people hated it. It was actually easier than most thought, but optically was difficult to reconcile. 

Swire Pacific (19 HK) was a clear buy: there is no justification for assigning a similar discount for cash from the US Coke ops as you would to unlisted ops
A residual NTT (9432 JP) individual small-holder shareholding tenure reward does not get split 25:1 when the stock gets split 25:1. It doesn't mean much, but it's an interesting artefact. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers/Prosus, Swire Pacific, NTT, Aussie Tax-Loss Selling

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> post the FreeFire ban in India plus high-quality tile producer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana (ARNA IJ)</a> and Industrial player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a>
</li>
<li>We also look at regional logistics player J&amp;T plus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> as it ramps up Anteraja as well as palm oil plays and why they have lagged.</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week saw insights on Sea Ltd (SE US) post the FreeFire ban in India plus high-quality tile producer Arwana (ARNA IJ) and Industrial player AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)

We also look at regional logistics player J&amp;T plus Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) as it ramps up Anteraja as well as palm oil plays and why they have lagged.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Sea Ltd & FreeFire, Arwana Citramulia, and CPO's Poor Show

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> outlining its online storefront strategy and on MSCI Index inclusions, which impacts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>. </li>
<li>We also look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a> post results plus OVO's multi-finance move, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a>'s move into warehousing with Logos.</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week saw insights on Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) outlining its online storefront strategy and on MSCI Index inclusions, which impacts Grab (GRAB US) and Sea Ltd (SE US). 
We also look at Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) post results plus OVO's multi-finance move, and Astra International's move into warehousing with Logos.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bukalapak's Storefront, Grab's MSCI Boost, and Unilever Indo

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has a unique combination of different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia from corporate car rental, to car auction, and online marketplace but it is its end-to-end logistics business, and especially Anteraja, that is plugged directly into Indonesia's booming digital economy, that makes this an exciting story.</p>
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<section class="figure">Anteraja has expanded its coverage area significantly and is now present in 600 service points in 34 provinces across the archipelago.  It accounted for 47% of total sales in 1H2021 and is likely to account for more than 50% of sales by 2H2021.</section>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> 1H2021 results saw the company's revenues grow by +50.4% YoY, with gross profit up +20% YoY, while operating profit grew +43.7%, and the company's net profit grew by +68.9% YoY</section>
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<p>In an interesting development, Anteraja, the last-mile delivery arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has announced partnerships with both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a>, to integrate both company's logistics services into its last-mile ecosystem.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> is a very interesting way to play the growth in the Indonesian digital economy through its exposure to logistics and the last-mile through Anteraja, which makes up close to 50% of sales, whilst its remaining business in car rental and car auction continue to produce stable growth.</p>
<p>The company trades on 42x FY22E PER and 31x FY223E PER but on 16.9x FY21EV/EBITDA and 13.4x FY23E EV/EBITDA, which is probably a better measure given that this is a growth company.</p>
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Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has a unique combination of different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia from corporate car rental, to car auction, and online marketplace but it is its end-to-end logistics business, and especially Anteraja, that is plugged directly into Indonesia's booming digital economy, that makes this an exciting story.



Anteraja has expanded its coverage area significantly and is now present in 600 service points in 34 provinces across the archipelago.  It accounted for 47% of total sales in 1H2021 and is likely to account for more than 50% of sales by 2H2021.



Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) 1H2021 results saw the company's revenues grow by +50.4% YoY, with gross profit up +20% YoY, while operating profit grew +43.7%, and the company's net profit grew by +68.9% YoY

In an interesting development, Anteraja, the last-mile delivery arm of Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has announced partnerships with both Grab and Gojek, to integrate both company's logistics services into its last-mile ecosystem.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is a very interesting way to play the growth in the Indonesian digital economy through its exposure to logistics and the last-mile through Anteraja, which makes up close to 50% of sales, whilst its remaining business in car rental and car auction continue to produce stable growth.
The company trades on 42x FY22E PER and 31x FY223E PER but on 16.9x FY21EV/EBITDA and 13.4x FY23E EV/EBITDA, which is probably a better measure given that this is a growth company.









Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - From the First to the Last Mile

Indonesia

PT Adira Dinamika Multi Finance Tbk provides consumer financing services.

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Adira Dinamika Multi Finance (ADMF IJ)

Indonesia Consumer - Positive Impressions from the Jakarta Fair

The highlights from the Jakarta Fair were a plethora of 2W and 4W EVs, a notable presence from dairy players, and many financing options being...

Angus Mackintosh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers/Prosus, Swire Pacific, NTT, Aussie Tax-Loss Selling

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Sea Ltd & FreeFire, Arwana Citramulia, and CPO's Poor Show

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bukalapak's Storefront, Grab's MSCI Boost, and Unilever Indo

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - From the First to the Last Mile

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is a unique combination from different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia, directly plugged into the booming...

Angus Mackintosh

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