European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applus-services-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21249:1" rel="noopener">Applus Services SA (APPS SM)</a> share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.</li>
<li>There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.</li>
<li>At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.</li>
</ul>


According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per Applus Services SA (APPS SM) share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.
There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.
At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay.</li>
<li>
It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40% from (25,0000 won -29,000 won) to (15,000 won - 18,000 won).</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Daemyung Energy is target price of 28,784 won per share, which is 60% upside from the high end of the IPO price range,</li>
</ul>


Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay.

It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40% from (25,0000 won -29,000 won) to (15,000 won - 18,000 won).
Our base case valuation of Daemyung Energy is target price of 28,784 won per share, which is 60% upside from the high end of the IPO price range,


Daemyung Energy: Lowers IPO Price Range by 40%

On 17 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acciona-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21248:1" rel="noopener">Acciona SA (ANA SM)</a> set the price range for the initial public offering of Acciona Energía.
<ul>
<li>
The price range for the IPO will be €26.73 - € 29.76/share.
</li>
<li>
For an equity value of €8.8 bn - €9.8 bn, and an EV €11.9 bn - €12.9 bn.
</li>
<li>
Acciona told market regulator the CNMC in a filing that it has authorized the placement of a minimum 15% and maximum 25% of the subsidiary's share capital. Greenshoe will represent between 10% and 15% of the initial offer.
</li>
<li>The final price will be set on 29 June, and shares will start trading on 1 July.</li>
</ul>
Acciona Energía has committed c. €8 bn worth of investments to reach 30,000 MW installed in 2030. Q1 net income for Acciona Energía was €121 mn.
With the operation, Acciona will significantly reduce corporate debt after the capitalization of intra-group loans and will prepare the subsidiary to triple its current size.
The IPO range is in the lower band of previous valuation expectations, initially an upper band up to €12 bn was considered.
I believe that this valuation range for Acciona Energía allows for potential upside. My new DCF based TP for Acciona is €159/share (7% down from my previous TP), for an implied 11.5x EV/21e EBITDA.
Recommendation is long ANA SM, TP €159.

On 17 June, Acciona SA (ANA SM) set the price range for the initial public offering of Acciona Energía.


The price range for the IPO will be €26.73 - € 29.76/share.


For an equity value of €8.8 bn - €9.8 bn, and an EV €11.9 bn - €12.9 bn.


Acciona told market regulator the CNMC in a filing that it has authorized the placement of a minimum 15% and maximum 25% of the subsidiary's share capital. Greenshoe will represent between 10% and 15% of the initial offer.

The final price will be set on 29 June, and shares will start trading on 1 July.

Acciona Energía has committed c. €8 bn worth of investments to reach 30,000 MW installed in 2030. Q1 net income for Acciona Energía was €121 mn.
With the operation, Acciona will significantly reduce corporate debt after the capitalization of intra-group loans and will prepare the subsidiary to triple its current size.
The IPO range is in the lower band of previous valuation expectations, initially an upper band up to €12 bn was considered.
I believe that this valuation range for Acciona Energía allows for potential upside. My new DCF based TP for Acciona is €159/share (7% down from my previous TP), for an implied 11.5x EV/21e EBITDA.
Recommendation is long ANA SM, TP €159.

Price Range Set for Acciona Renewables Spin-Off

On 18 February <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acciona-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21248:1" rel="noopener">Acciona SA (ANA SM)</a> announced it would list 25% of its renewables subsidiary, Acciona Energías Renovables, and would retain control.
On 7 June, the Spanish Securities and Markets Commission (CNMV) approved the registration document for the IPO, exclusively aimed at institutional investors.
<ul>
<li>
The IPO consists of a secondary offering by parent company Acciona SA and will serve as a preliminary step for Acciona Energias Renovables' admission to trading on the Spanish Continuous Market.
</li>
<li>
Press sources point to a value between €10 bn and €12 bn, the largest IPO in the Spanish market since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aena-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21244:1" rel="noopener">Aena SA (AENA SM)</a> in 2015. Acciona plans to place around 25% of the capital (30% if the green shoe is added), for which it could raise between €2.5 and €3 bn.
</li>
<li>
The objective is to have the shares listed on the last week of June.
</li>
</ul>
According to Acciona, the rationale of the spin-off is:
<ul>
<li>
financing its ambitious growth plans in renewables: the IPO will allow to accelerate growth goals. The pre-IPO target was to reach 15,000MW in 2024 from 10,700MW in 2020. Now this target is improved to 20,000MW in 2025. Acciona Energías Renovables, as a pure renewables operator, will seek to maximize its growth potential, with an unrestricted balance sheet with access to a more efficient cost of capital. 
</li>
<li>
Acciona will crystallize the value in the group's fastest growing subsidiary. This subsidiary represents 75% of the group's EBITDA, but Acciona receives little recognition for its renewables business and the high proportion of profits these assets now generate.
</li>
</ul>
I calculate Acciona's fair value by using a DCF (Capital IQ consensus, WACC 5.5%, g 1.5%). I add the value of subsidiaries and apply a 15% holding discount.
Fair value is €172.4/share, 25% upside, although planned growth acceleration for Acciona Energías Renovables, should allow further upward revisions in the parent company target prices.
<ul>
<li>
Acciona's shares trade at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x at which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orsted-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24765:1" rel="noopener">Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC)</a> trades.
</li>
<li>
The valuation of Acciona Energías Renovables includes some €4 bn of financial debt, over 4x EBITDA. Assuming a cautious 20% discount on Orsted, or 13.0x EBITDA, Acciona Energías Renovables would be valued at €12,000 mn euros, 87% of the current market of the entire group.
</li>
<li>
Assuming Acciona nets €3 bn, half of the IPO proceeds, €1.5 bn, together with another €1.5 bn from the syndicated loan (see background section), will significantly lower the net debt (and the WACC) of Acciona parent, thus triggering a re-rating of the shares.
</li>
</ul>
Recommendation long ANA SM, TP €172.4, with possibility of further upside.

On 18 February Acciona SA (ANA SM) announced it would list 25% of its renewables subsidiary, Acciona Energías Renovables, and would retain control.
On 7 June, the Spanish Securities and Markets Commission (CNMV) approved the registration document for the IPO, exclusively aimed at institutional investors.


The IPO consists of a secondary offering by parent company Acciona SA and will serve as a preliminary step for Acciona Energias Renovables' admission to trading on the Spanish Continuous Market.


Press sources point to a value between €10 bn and €12 bn, the largest IPO in the Spanish market since Aena SA (AENA SM) in 2015. Acciona plans to place around 25% of the capital (30% if the green shoe is added), for which it could raise between €2.5 and €3 bn.


The objective is to have the shares listed on the last week of June.


According to Acciona, the rationale of the spin-off is:


financing its ambitious growth plans in renewables: the IPO will allow to accelerate growth goals. The pre-IPO target was to reach 15,000MW in 2024 from 10,700MW in 2020. Now this target is improved to 20,000MW in 2025. Acciona Energías Renovables, as a pure renewables operator, will seek to maximize its growth potential, with an unrestricted balance sheet with access to a more efficient cost of capital. 


Acciona will crystallize the value in the group's fastest growing subsidiary. This subsidiary represents 75% of the group's EBITDA, but Acciona receives little recognition for its renewables business and the high proportion of profits these assets now generate.


I calculate Acciona's fair value by using a DCF (Capital IQ consensus, WACC 5.5%, g 1.5%). I add the value of subsidiaries and apply a 15% holding discount.
Fair value is €172.4/share, 25% upside, although planned growth acceleration for Acciona Energías Renovables, should allow further upward revisions in the parent company target prices.


Acciona's shares trade at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x at which Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC) trades.


The valuation of Acciona Energías Renovables includes some €4 bn of financial debt, over 4x EBITDA. Assuming a cautious 20% discount on Orsted, or 13.0x EBITDA, Acciona Energías Renovables would be valued at €12,000 mn euros, 87% of the current market of the entire group.


Assuming Acciona nets €3 bn, half of the IPO proceeds, €1.5 bn, together with another €1.5 bn from the syndicated loan (see background section), will significantly lower the net debt (and the WACC) of Acciona parent, thus triggering a re-rating of the shares.


Recommendation long ANA SM, TP €172.4, with possibility of further upside.

Spain

Acciona S.A. is a global developer and service provider of solutions in renewable energy, large civil infrastructures and water treatment and reverse osmosis desalination.  The Company has sustainable development at the heart of its strategy.

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Acciona SA (ANA SM)

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

Daemyung Energy: Lowers IPO Price Range by 40%

Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay. It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40%.

Douglas Kim

Price Range Set for Acciona Renewables Spin-Off

Valuation adjustment of Acciona Energía vs initial expectations allows the IPO to go ahead and allows for potential upside. New DCF based TP for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spin-Off of Acciona Renewables

Acciona trades at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x for ORSTED DC. IPO should allow value to crystallize and financial debt to be repaid, thus...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

​Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

Daemyung Energy: Lowers IPO Price Range by 40%

Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay. It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40%.

Douglas Kim

Price Range Set for Acciona Renewables Spin-Off

Valuation adjustment of Acciona Energía vs initial expectations allows the IPO to go ahead and allows for potential upside. New DCF based TP for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spin-Off of Acciona Renewables

Acciona trades at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x for ORSTED DC. IPO should allow value to crystallize and financial debt to be repaid, thus...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...