Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.</li>
<li>Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.</li>
<li>Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.</li>
</ul>


In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.
Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.
Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.


Quiddity Jun23 HSTECH Flow Expectations Update: SHORT AAC Vs LONG Lenovo Might Be Interesting

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

AAC Technologies' FY 2022 results were in line with our expectations. Total full-year revenue rose 17% y-o-y to CNY 20.6 bn, driven by increased sales of haptic and optic products on the back of strong demand from overseas customers. That said, the overall gross margin declined further to 18.3%, due to: [1] ongoing price pressure and inventory impairment for optic lens products; [2] decreased shipments of Android acoustics products, which led to greater contribution from lower-margin businesses; and [3] rising raw-material costs. AAC managed to maintain a healthy financial position, with reduced back borrowings, adequate cash balance and improved liquidity in FY 2022. The company aims to cut capex by another 10-15% in FY 2023. We view AAC's credit profile as sound.

  AAC Technologies' FY 2022 results were in line with our expectations. Total full-year revenue rose 17% y-o-y to CNY 20.6 bn, driven by increased sales of haptic and optic products on the back of strong demand from overseas customers. That said, the overall gross margin declined further to 18.3%, due to: [1] ongoing price pressure and inventory impairment for optic lens products; [2] decreased shipments of Android acoustics products, which led to greater contribution from lower-margin businesses; and [3] rising raw-material costs.   AAC managed to maintain a healthy financial position, with reduced back borrowings, adequate cash balance and improved liquidity in FY 2022. The company aims to cut capex by another 10-15% in FY 2023. We view AAC's credit profile as sound. 

AAC Technologies - Earnings Flash - FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.</li>
<li>According to our estimation, there could be one ADD/DEL for the HSTECH in June 2023 triggering total one-way index flows of US$238mn.</li>
<li>The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights will be published in Mid/Late-May 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.
According to our estimation, there could be one ADD/DEL for the HSTECH in June 2023 triggering total one-way index flows of US$238mn.
The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights will be published in Mid/Late-May 2023.


Quiddity Flow Expectations HSTECH Jun 23: New Oriental Education IN; AAC Technologies OUT

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (9898 HK)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ming-yuan-cloud-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29268:1" rel="noopener">Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the close on 10 March.</li>
<li>Using prices from the close on 24 February, estimated one-way turnover is 8.92% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$7,078m at the close on 10 March.</li>
<li>There will be big buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> due to a change in the index handling methodology for Dual Primary listings.</li>
</ul>



Weibo Corp (9898 HK) replaces Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK) in the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 10 March.
Using prices from the close on 24 February, estimated one-way turnover is 8.92% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$7,078m at the close on 10 March.
There will be big buying on Li Auto (2015 HK) and XPeng (9868 HK) due to a change in the index handling methodology for Dual Primary listings.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Weibo Replaces Ming Yuan Cloud; Big Inflows on Li Auto & XPeng

China

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc designs, develops and manufactures a broad range of miniaturized components that include speakers, receivers and microphones in the acoustic segment and others such as haptics vibrators, RF and antennas, and optical lenses. AAC's products are found in mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets, wearables, ultrabooks, notebooks and electronic book-readers.

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AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)

Quiddity Jun23 HSTECH Flow Expectations Update: SHORT AAC Vs LONG Lenovo Might Be Interesting

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Brian Freitas

AAC Technologies - Earnings Flash - FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

AAC Technologies' FY 2022 results were in line with our expectations. Total full-year revenue rose 17% y-o-y to CNY 20.6 bn, driven by increased...

Lucror Analytics

Quiddity Flow Expectations HSTECH Jun 23: New Oriental Education IN; AAC Technologies OUT

According to my estimates, New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK) could be added and AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) could be...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Weibo Replaces Ming Yuan Cloud; Big Inflows on Li Auto & XPeng

Weibo replaces Ming Yuan Cloud in March. There will be big inflows on Li Auto & XPeng due to index handling changes for dual primary listings....

Brian Freitas

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