Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?</li>
<li>Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs</li>
<li>DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.</li>
</ul>


Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?
Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs
DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.


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<ul><li>Semiconductors- “Big Money” Rabid Buying Spree Continues NVIDIA’s (NVDA) and Marvell’s (MRVL) earnings calls and forward guidance delivered this week resulted in earthquake shock re-rating to all things semiconductors on Thursday and Friday.</li><li>On Thursday, NVIDIA’s $198B market cap gain was the largest market cap gain in market history.</li><li>In the first quarter of this year, Microsoft gave clues that artificial intelligence would emerge as the next great computing platform and then this quarter it appears that Wall St. has woken up to the degree of significant data center retooling and infrastructure spending which will be required to support emerging artificial intelligence computing demand.</li></ul>

Semiconductors- “Big Money” Rabid Buying Spree Continues NVIDIA’s (NVDA) and Marvell’s (MRVL) earnings calls and forward guidance delivered this week resulted in earthquake shock re-rating to all things semiconductors on Thursday and Friday.On Thursday, NVIDIA’s $198B market cap gain was the largest market cap gain in market history.In the first quarter of this year, Microsoft gave clues that artificial intelligence would emerge as the next great computing platform and then this quarter it appears that Wall St. has woken up to the degree of significant data center retooling and infrastructure spending which will be required to support emerging artificial intelligence computing demand.

<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


<ul>
<li>The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.</li>
<li>Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.</li>
<li>These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven't hit bottom yet.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.
Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.
These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven't hit bottom yet.


<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.</li>
<li>This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.</li>
<li>Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.
This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.
Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.


Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

United States

Broadcom Corporation provides integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission of voice, data, and video content to the home and within the business enterprise.  The Company designs, develops, and supplies integrated circuits for cable set-top boxes, cable modems, high-speed networking, direct satellite and digital broadcast, and digital subscriber line.

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Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)

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Semiconductors are 45% above their long-term revenue trend. This is poised to continue for the near term, but a big change will occur further out.

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