Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.
Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.


TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20774:1" rel="noopener">CELSYS (3663 JP)</a> (formerly known as "Artspark") is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.</li>
<li>In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

CELSYS (3663 JP) (formerly known as "Artspark") is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.
In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Crisis Over !Bailouts from US to Europe, Stocks rally as Contagion fears wane; Major Banks rescue First Republic Bank; Swiss Central Bank protects Credit Suisse; ECB raises by 50bps</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 133.8; Expect Japan Equities to start the road to recovery with macro fears subsiding;  Japan-Korea move fwd on trade/security. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Orix - one of the Biggest Renewables Plays in Japan. Riding the Decarbonization MegaTrend</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Crisis Over !Bailouts from US to Europe, Stocks rally as Contagion fears wane; Major Banks rescue First Republic Bank; Swiss Central Bank protects Credit Suisse; ECB raises by 50bps
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 133.8; Expect Japan Equities to start the road to recovery with macro fears subsiding;  Japan-Korea move fwd on trade/security. 
NUGGET. Orix - one of the Biggest Renewables Plays in Japan. Riding the Decarbonization MegaTrend


Good Morning Japan |VICTORY Declared as Bailouts Rule; NUGGET: ORIX-Riding the Zero-Carbon MegaTrend

Japan

ORIX Corporation provides comprehensive financial services throughout the world. The Company's business lines include leasing, real estate loans, life insurance, banking, and consumer finance.  The Company also operates Environment related business and Private equity investment business. ORIX has a professional baseball team, the ORIX Buffalos.

Mitsubishi HC Capital Inc. provides customer finance services. The Company leases machinery and equipment, aircraft and ships, office buildings, and more. Mitsubishi HC Capital serves clients across worldwide.

Tokyo Century Corporation provides businesses with lease financing for their equipment needs, such as information/communication equipment and machinery.

Fuyo General Lease Co Ltd leases machinery and equipment.  The Company also provides other financial services such as installment sale and lending.

Zenkoku Hosho Co. Ltd. is a credit guarantee company mainly for real estate or education loans. The company also provides insurance agency and credit check services.

Mizuho Leasing Company, Limited operates as a leasing company. The Company provides finance leasing, operating leasing, automobile leasing, real estate leasing, and other services.  Mizuho Leasing also offers payment outsourcing, installment sales, and other services.

Financial Products Group Co Ltd provides integrated financial services and Japanese Operating Lease (JOL) arrangements, which includes the structuring, sale and management of large transportation assets such as shipping vessels, marine containers and aircraft.

RICOH LEASING COMPANY, LTD. offers credit sales and leasing of office automation equipment such as copiers mainly manufactured by its parent, Ricoh.  The Company leases industrial machinery such as construction machinery, transportation equipment, and medical device.

Japan Securities Finance Co., Ltd. provides loans and security lending services for collateral.  The Company mainly offers its services to securities firms who are the member of the Tokyo, Sapporo, and Fukuoka Stock Exchanges. Japan Securities Finance also provides trust banking, real estate brokerage, information processing, transfer agent, and securities maintenance.

eGuarantee, Inc. offers guarantee services for accounts and note receivables arising from business and financial service transactions. The Company analyzes the credit risk of receivables and loans. eGuarantee also provides consulting services for credit risk and credit management.

Rural Electrification Corporation Limited engages in the financing and promotion of transmission, distribution and generation projects in India. The Company provides funding to clients to assist them in formulating and implementing various types of power project-related schemes.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd. is currently engaged in life insurance; general insurance and consumer finance businesses and has plans to expand its business by offering a wide array of financial products and services in India. The Company is also active in wind-energy generation.

Fubon Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a financial holding company, formed through the merger of Fubon Insurance, Fubon Securities, Fubon Commercial Bank, and Fubon Life Assurance.

Power Finance Corporation funds power projects in India.  The Company serves state power utilities, central power sector utilities, power departments, private power sector utilities, joint sector power utilities, power equipment manufacturers, and municipal power utilities.

EXOR N.V. is a diversified holding company. The Company brings in finance for the development of its companies, to improve their competitive position and profitability, and maintains a constant dialogue with the top management of the companies in which it invests, while fully respecting their operating autonomy.

FirstRand Limited is a portfolio of separately branded, integrated financial services businesses offering a universal set of transactional, lending, investment and insurance products and services in South Africa, certain markets in sub-Saharan Africa and the UK.

Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC) provides financial services. The Company raises money from the market through bonds and off-shores borrowings to finance the plan outlay of railways and other various developmental programs. IRFC serves customers in India. 

Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC IN)

Bajaj Holdings and Investment Ltd. is an investment company. The Company investments include strategic investments and investments in government securities, bonds, debentures and mutual funds.

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

L E Lundbergforetagen AB is a real estate and investment company.  The Company owns,  develops, rents out, and manages commercial and residential properties located in central Sweden.  Lundbergs is also a long term investor in mostly publicly traded Swedish companies.  The Company takes an active ownership role in the companies.  Moreover Lundbergs is engaged in securities trading.

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Orix Corp (8591 JP)

TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

There are FFW changes for 700+ stocks and changes to the Phased Weight Reduction list. Round trip trade is around US$20bn and there is over 8 days...

Brian Freitas

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

CELSYS has been working for a move to the Prime Market since August 2022 and with the recent rise in share price they could be able to satisfy all...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Good Morning Japan |VICTORY Declared as Bailouts Rule; NUGGET: ORIX-Riding the Zero-Carbon MegaTrend

Expect Japan Equities to start the road to recovery with macro fears subsiding; Japan-Korea move fwd on trade/security. NUGGET: Orix - as a...

Mark Chadwick

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