'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong> • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES •</strong></p></div><div>
<strong>RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months.</div><div></div><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/120/886/original/2020-03-02_09-36-07.png?1583109407" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="120886"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>OVERBOUGHT MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Examples of larger-cap companies that have reverted from being Overbought in the last quarter are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/systena-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20438:1" rel="noopener">Systena (2317 JP)</a> which was Very Overbought two quarters ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotobuki-spirits-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20062:1" rel="noopener">Kotobuki Spirits (2222 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15379:1" rel="noopener">Toei (9605 JP)</a>, and the amusement park operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-kyuko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1305:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Kyuko (9010 JP)</a>, which began to mean-revert well before the emergence of Covid-19. The average decline from their peak of these stocks is 34%, which compares with an 11% decline for the market overall.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/120/887/original/2020-03-02_09-42-41.png?1583109791" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="120887"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>OVERSOLD MEAN REVERSION</strong> - The four large caps that have reverted from being Oversold have outperformed by over 20% on average, led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari (4385 JP)</a> which we suggested was <em>'due for another bounce</em>' in our December Insight. Otherwise, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-electric-power-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16243:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku Electric Power (9504 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tv-asahi-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8830:1" rel="noopener">Tv Asahi (9409 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntory-beverage-food-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8218:1" rel="noopener">Suntory Beverage &amp; Food (2587 JP)</a> all saw substantial recoveries.</p>
</div><div></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Following on from our previous Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-march-sector-peer-group-relative-price-scores" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36972" rel="noopener">March Sector &amp; Peer Group Relative Price Scores -</a>  which covered Sectors and Peer Groups, in the<strong> DETAIL </strong>section below, we update our list of Overbought and Oversold large-cap companies (market capitalisation over ¥100b) with the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4.5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) companies, as well as the largest positive and negative 3-month Changes in RPS adding some stock-specific comments in each category.</p></div></div>

 • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES •
RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months.
Source • Japan Analytics
OVERBOUGHT MEAN REVERSION - Examples of larger-cap companies that have reverted from being Overbought in the last quarter are Systena (2317 JP) which was Very Overbought two quarters ago, Kotobuki Spirits (2222 JP), Toei (9605 JP), and the amusement park operator Fuji Kyuko (9010 JP), which began to mean-revert well before the emergence of Covid-19. The average decline from their peak of these stocks is 34%, which compares with an 11% decline for the market overall.
Source • Japan Analytics
OVERSOLD MEAN REVERSION - The four large caps that have reverted from being Oversold have outperformed by over 20% on average, led by Mercari (4385 JP) which we suggested was 'due for another bounce' in our December Insight. Otherwise, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), Chugoku Electric Power (9504 JP), Tv Asahi (9409 JP), and Suntory Beverage &amp; Food (2587 JP) all saw substantial recoveries.
Following on from our previous Insight March Sector &amp; Peer Group Relative Price Scores -  which covered Sectors and Peer Groups, in the DETAIL section below, we update our list of Overbought and Oversold large-cap companies (market capitalisation over ¥100b) with the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4.5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) companies, as well as the largest positive and negative 3-month Changes in RPS adding some stock-specific comments in each category.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • March Company Relative Price Scores - Playing the Extremes

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/923/original/2020-02-08_18-15-45.png?1581196263" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116923"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/924/original/2020-02-09_06-34-51.png?1581197706" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116924"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>OOOPS!</strong> - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of companies continue this trend, the current quarter will equal CQ2019-1 and CQ2018-2 in seeing a 200 basis point Results Score decline. 169 forecasts or revision announcements added  5bps to the Forecast/Revision Score, supported by slight upward revisions from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>.  The Results Score has dipped below the Forecast/Revision Score for the first time since July 2016 and is a necessary precursor of the bottoming of the cycle. Japan is now in a recession and could see a decline in GDP for the calendar year. The market's current optimism (aided by the Bank of Japan's buy-the-dips support programme) is more appropriate to the middle of the cycle and, with two further poor earnings quarters ahead, suggests limited further upside. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/925/original/2020-02-08_10-48-19.png?1581199859" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116925"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>18x EARNINGS</strong> - Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income for the composite of listed companies has declined to ¥57.4t, 10% below the peak of early 2019. TTM Net Income has declined by 20% over the same period, resulting in a 6.1 point increase in the market price-earnings ratio to 17.6 times.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/927/original/2020-02-08_10-55-21.png?1581200256" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116927"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>TTM RESULTS</strong> - TTM Operating Profits have been declining quarter-on-quarter for five straight quarters, and are 8.1% lower year-on-year. The Operating Margin has declined from 7.45% to 6.80%. TTM Revenues are now also falling and have only increased by 0.7% year-on-year.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/928/original/2020-02-08_10-59-00.png?1581200533" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116928"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - The year-on-year Operating Profit decline using current forecasts is 8.5%, while Revenues are flat. Revenue forecasts have been falling quarter-on-quarter for three quarters in a row. The 'uplift' from TTM to Forecast is just ¥3t for sales and ¥0.3t for OP. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsOOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of companies continue this trend, the current quarter will equal CQ2019-1 and CQ2018-2 in seeing a 200 basis point Results Score decline. 169 forecasts or revision announcements added  5bps to the Forecast/Revision Score, supported by slight upward revisions from Softbank Corp (9434 JP) and Honda Motor (7267 JP).  The Results Score has dipped below the Forecast/Revision Score for the first time since July 2016 and is a necessary precursor of the bottoming of the cycle. Japan is now in a recession and could see a decline in GDP for the calendar year. The market's current optimism (aided by the Bank of Japan's buy-the-dips support programme) is more appropriate to the middle of the cycle and, with two further poor earnings quarters ahead, suggests limited further upside. Source • Japan Analytics18x EARNINGS - Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income for the composite of listed companies has declined to ¥57.4t, 10% below the peak of early 2019. TTM Net Income has declined by 20% over the same period, resulting in a 6.1 point increase in the market price-earnings ratio to 17.6 times.Source • Japan AnalyticsTTM RESULTS - TTM Operating Profits have been declining quarter-on-quarter for five straight quarters, and are 8.1% lower year-on-year. The Operating Margin has declined from 7.45% to 6.80%. TTM Revenues are now also falling and have only increased by 0.7% year-on-year.Source • Japan AnalyticsFORECASTS - The year-on-year Operating Profit decline using current forecasts is 8.5%, while Revenues are flat. Revenue forecasts have been falling quarter-on-quarter for three quarters in a row. The 'uplift' from TTM to Forecast is just ¥3t for sales and ¥0.3t for OP. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 7th February ▲2121 7267 5713 ▼ 5401 9616 3407

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •</strong></p><p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS</strong> - The<strong> Relative Price Score (RPS)</strong> is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, <strong>'Overbought'</strong> and<strong> 'Oversold'</strong> outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities.</p><div>
<p>The data for all <strong>3,860</strong><strong>Companies</strong> is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our <strong>328</strong><strong>Peer Groups</strong> and <strong>30 Sectors</strong>. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of historical observations.</p>
<p>With a few exceptions, mean reversion from these extreme outlying states occurs typically in a matter of weeks or months. It often coincides with the peak of market interest in a theme or investment fashion.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/110/440/original/2019-12-15_05-25-54.png?1576355187" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="110440"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>OVERBOUGHT MEAN REVERSION</strong> -  Some examples of large-cap RPS mean reversion from being Overbought in the last three months include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/house-foods-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5964:1" rel="noopener">House Foods (2810 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandai-namco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1" rel="noopener">Bandai Namco (7832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-office-j-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7414:1" rel="noopener">Invesco Office JREIT (3298 JP)</a> - all five are domestically-orientated non-manufacturing companies.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/110/459/original/2019-12-15_05-51-43.png?1576356720" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="110459"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>OVERSOLD MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some examples of large-cap RPS mean reversion from being Oversold in the last three months include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura (5803 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nishi-nippon-financial-holdi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26192:1" rel="noopener">Nishi-Nippon Financial (7189 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tv-asahi-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8830:1" rel="noopener">TV Asahi (9409 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uacj-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5330:1" rel="noopener">UACJ (5741 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2167:1" rel="noopener">AGC (5201 JP)</a> - one bank and three deep cyclical manufacturers. </p>
</div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector and Peer Group trends, over the last three months and adds some stock-specific comments. <span>A separate Insight to follow in the next few days will cover the Relative Price Scores for individual companies.</span></p></div></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities.
The data for all 3,860Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of historical observations.
With a few exceptions, mean reversion from these extreme outlying states occurs typically in a matter of weeks or months. It often coincides with the peak of market interest in a theme or investment fashion.
Source: Japan Analytics
OVERBOUGHT MEAN REVERSION -  Some examples of large-cap RPS mean reversion from being Overbought in the last three months include House Foods (2810 JP), Oriental Land (4661 JP), Bandai Namco (7832 JP), Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP), and Invesco Office JREIT (3298 JP) - all five are domestically-orientated non-manufacturing companies.
Source: Japan Analytics
OVERSOLD MEAN REVERSION - Some examples of large-cap RPS mean reversion from being Oversold in the last three months include Fujikura (5803 JP), Nishi-Nippon Financial (7189 JP), TV Asahi (9409 JP), UACJ (5741 JP), AGC (5201 JP) - one bank and three deep cyclical manufacturers. 
In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector and Peer Group trends, over the last three months and adds some stock-specific comments. A separate Insight to follow in the next few days will cover the Relative Price Scores for individual companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • December Sector & Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals

<div class="content-caption"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/175/original/2019-09-29_05-54-31.png?1569704091" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100175"></figure></div><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TAKE PROFITS</strong> - The 'breakout' rally above the 50-day moving average over the last thirteen trading days has added 8% to total market value and has been driven by ample liquidity, stronger US$, a lack of developments in global trade talks and more dove-like utterances and stances from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, respectively. With the US Treasury about to restore its cash balance (through large T-bill offerings) by over US$250 billion, the US monetary base could contract by over 5% in the next quarter. Markets will face a stiff headwind and, with business conditions moving from bad to worse and central banks limited in the scope of further comment/action, the fourth quarter could be as perilous as the third quarter was benign.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/176/original/2019-09-29_07-49-09.png?1569710965" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100176"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/177/original/2019-09-29_08-01-13.png?1569711690" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100177"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/178/original/2019-09-29_08-09-38.png?1569712198" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100178"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>PEAK ACTION</strong> - Both the 5-day <strong>Relative Strength Index</strong> and the 25-day <strong>Toraku Index</strong> have pulled back from extreme levels from which further upside is typically limited. In a similar vein, the 52 Week New Highs - New Lows reached a 20-month high of 141 on Thursday suggesting a peak in this bear market rally.   </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/179/original/2019-09-29_08-29-33.png?1569713388" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100179"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>VOLUME SCORE TIMELINE</strong> - Volume peaked on 13th September at the highest level of any day this year and, as of Friday, is still above the fourth-month average. Favoured Sectors continue to be non-manufacturing, especially the Internet, IT, Commercial Services and REITs Sectors. Volume is weakest in the Metals, Machinery, Technology Hardware Sectors, but also now in the 'China-related' Other Consumer Products Sector. The Bank of Japan resumed ETF purchases on Friday after an eighteen-trading day hiatus.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/180/original/2019-09-29_12-35-13.png?1569728129" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100180"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION</strong> - Relief over the apparent conclusion of Japan/US trade talks without any tariffs on Japan's <strong>Auto</strong> sector resulted in a 22 bps return contribution from the Sector; we would take profits on the conclusion of the final deal as global sales trends remain dire.  The <strong>Telecommunications</strong> Sector's underperformance reflects the 16% decline in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> over the period for reasons well-documented on this platform.  The other outperforming Sectors are mostly in domestic non-manufacturing, but <strong>Technology Hardware</strong> continues to defy underlying current business conditions, as we shall discuss below.  <strong>Retail</strong> stocks are benefiting from positive sentiment to the short-term stimulus, although the early results from the Sector, many of whose leading companies will report second-quarter results over the next two weeks, suggest this optimism is, perhaps, misplaced. Lastly, the <strong>Banks</strong> Sector appears to have reached a short-term nadir and rose by 1.6% over the period.   </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/182/original/2019-09-29_12-57-32.png?1569729476" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100182"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR SCORE MATRIX - </strong>Our Sector Score matrix spreads all 30 Sectors by Relative Price Score and Results &amp; Revisions Score where the extreme outliers are denoted as <strong>Contrarian Sell</strong>, <strong>Contrarian Buy</strong>, <strong>Unrequited Growth</strong>, and <strong>Ex-Growth</strong>. The Information Technology Sector is the only 'Contrarian Sell', and we note that the Sector declined by 0.7% over the last three months. <strong>Consumer Services</strong> is the most Overbought Sector, mostly due to the continuing out-performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> - now the fifth-most Overbought mega-cap. <strong>Banks</strong> are no longer a 'Contrarian Buy', while, as noted in our last Update, <strong>Metals</strong> remain the value investor pick, and saw at least one broker upgrade <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel (5401 JP)</a> last week.    </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/201/original/2019-09-30_04-51-12.png?1569786797" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100201"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/202/original/2019-09-30_04-57-34.png?1569787075" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100202"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SCORE</strong> - As we head into the next results 'season' it is instructive to note that earnings momentum is still negative and our Results &amp; Revision Score is at its lowest point since April 2017. The Series correlates well with the Cabinet Office's Leading Indicator which as of July reached a new 'post-GFC' low. Japanese listed corporated have done well to preserve their earnings power in harsh global conditions. We are about to discover how much of this is due to spending brought forward ahead of next month's consumption tax increase. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous three months.</p></div>

Source: Japan AnalyticsTAKE PROFITS - The 'breakout' rally above the 50-day moving average over the last thirteen trading days has added 8% to total market value and has been driven by ample liquidity, stronger US$, a lack of developments in global trade talks and more dove-like utterances and stances from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, respectively. With the US Treasury about to restore its cash balance (through large T-bill offerings) by over US$250 billion, the US monetary base could contract by over 5% in the next quarter. Markets will face a stiff headwind and, with business conditions moving from bad to worse and central banks limited in the scope of further comment/action, the fourth quarter could be as perilous as the third quarter was benign.Source: Japan AnalyticsPEAK ACTION - Both the 5-day Relative Strength Index and the 25-day Toraku Index have pulled back from extreme levels from which further upside is typically limited. In a similar vein, the 52 Week New Highs - New Lows reached a 20-month high of 141 on Thursday suggesting a peak in this bear market rally.   Source: Japan AnalyticsVOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - Volume peaked on 13th September at the highest level of any day this year and, as of Friday, is still above the fourth-month average. Favoured Sectors continue to be non-manufacturing, especially the Internet, IT, Commercial Services and REITs Sectors. Volume is weakest in the Metals, Machinery, Technology Hardware Sectors, but also now in the 'China-related' Other Consumer Products Sector. The Bank of Japan resumed ETF purchases on Friday after an eighteen-trading day hiatus.Source: Japan Analytics3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION - Relief over the apparent conclusion of Japan/US trade talks without any tariffs on Japan's Auto sector resulted in a 22 bps return contribution from the Sector; we would take profits on the conclusion of the final deal as global sales trends remain dire.  The Telecommunications Sector's underperformance reflects the 16% decline in Softbank Group (9984 JP) over the period for reasons well-documented on this platform.  The other outperforming Sectors are mostly in domestic non-manufacturing, but Technology Hardware continues to defy underlying current business conditions, as we shall discuss below.  Retail stocks are benefiting from positive sentiment to the short-term stimulus, although the early results from the Sector, many of whose leading companies will report second-quarter results over the next two weeks, suggest this optimism is, perhaps, misplaced. Lastly, the Banks Sector appears to have reached a short-term nadir and rose by 1.6% over the period.   Source: Japan AnalyticsSECTOR SCORE MATRIX - Our Sector Score matrix spreads all 30 Sectors by Relative Price Score and Results &amp; Revisions Score where the extreme outliers are denoted as Contrarian Sell, Contrarian Buy, Unrequited Growth, and Ex-Growth. The Information Technology Sector is the only 'Contrarian Sell', and we note that the Sector declined by 0.7% over the last three months. Consumer Services is the most Overbought Sector, mostly due to the continuing out-performance of Oriental Land (4661 JP) - now the fifth-most Overbought mega-cap. Banks are no longer a 'Contrarian Buy', while, as noted in our last Update, Metals remain the value investor pick, and saw at least one broker upgrade Nippon Steel (5401 JP) last week.    Source: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SCORE - As we head into the next results 'season' it is instructive to note that earnings momentum is still negative and our Results &amp; Revision Score is at its lowest point since April 2017. The Series correlates well with the Cabinet Office's Leading Indicator which as of July reached a new 'post-GFC' low. Japanese listed corporated have done well to preserve their earnings power in harsh global conditions. We are about to discover how much of this is due to spending brought forward ahead of next month's consumption tax increase. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous three months.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Take Profits

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p style="text-align: left;">The short notional in the market for the week ended 6 September is US$25.47bn with the largest short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>,  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-gr" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP)</a> . Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Amazia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/extreme-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5311:1">Extreme Co Ltd (6033 JP)</a>, while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirait-holdings-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7034:1">Mirait Holdings (1417 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-trust-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20246:1">J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP)</a>. </p><p style="text-align: left;">The largest increases in short notional over the week were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1">Terumo Corp (4543 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pigeon-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1">Pigeon Corp (7956 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman Corp (2801 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-tec-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17697:1">Toshiba Tec (6588 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1"></a></p><p style="text-align: left;">Sectorally, new short positions were built in Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary, while shorts were covered in Information Technology and Materials.</p>

The short notional in the market for the week ended 6 September is US$25.47bn with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP),  and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP) . Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Amazia, Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) and Extreme Co Ltd (6033 JP), while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Katakura Industries (3001 JP), Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP), Mirait Holdings (1417 JP) and J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP). The largest increases in short notional over the week were Softbank Corp (9434 JP), Terumo Corp (4543 JP), Pigeon Corp (7956 JP), Kikkoman Corp (2801 JP) and Toshiba Tec (6588 JP) while shorts were covered in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP), Tokai Carbon (5301 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP).   Sectorally, new short positions were built in Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary, while shorts were covered in Information Technology and Materials.

Japan Short Interest - Feels like a Squeeze; Softbank Corp Most Shorted

Japan

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

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Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)

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Japan Short Interest - Feels like a Squeeze; Softbank Corp Most Shorted

The short notional in the market for the week ended 6 September is US$25.47bn with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Toyota...

Brian Freitas

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