Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>98 days since Russia invaded Ukraine and there is yet no end to the war in sight.</li>
<li>We concluded that the market remains on course for a global recession down the road.</li>
<li>India and Indonesia should be a better bond destination, in our view, for those who must keep their bond portfolio invested.</li>
</ul>


98 days since Russia invaded Ukraine and there is yet no end to the war in sight.
We concluded that the market remains on course for a global recession down the road.
India and Indonesia should be a better bond destination, in our view, for those who must keep their bond portfolio invested.


Bond Market Monitor: Not Out of the Woods

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>We view Bharti Airtel as "Low Risk" on our LARA scale, mainly driven by its strong market position as the second-largest player in India’s telco industry. It owns robust network infrastructure across India, with a broad customer base. We also like the improving industry outlook with rationalising competition, industry consolidation to Airtel’s advantage, and improving regulatory conditions. Airtel is also committed to prudent balance-sheet management and stable leverage. However, the company will likely face continued significant capex requirements with respect to its 5G rollout, with the associated risks being higher than expected capex.<br><br>Our Credit Bias is "Stable", given Airtel’s robust business risk profile and stable financial metrics.</p>

We view Bharti Airtel as "Low Risk" on our LARA scale, mainly driven by its strong market position as the second-largest player in India’s telco industry. It owns robust network infrastructure across India, with a broad customer base. We also like the improving industry outlook with rationalising competition, industry consolidation to Airtel’s advantage, and improving regulatory conditions. Airtel is also committed to prudent balance-sheet management and stable leverage. However, the company will likely face continued significant capex requirements with respect to its 5G rollout, with the associated risks being higher than expected capex.  Our Credit Bias is "Stable", given Airtel’s robust business risk profile and stable financial metrics.

Bharti Airtel - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The difference in Indian exposures between Value and Aggressive Growth managers hits record wides of +10.5%.</li>
<li>Value managers are increasing underweights, with today’s level of -5.52% below benchmark the lowest on record.  Key underweights are Reliance Industries, Infosys, HDFC Limited, Bajaj Finance and Bharti Airtel</li>
<li>For Aggressive Growth funds, Infosys was a key driver behind the recent spike in exposure, with 8.6% of funds buying in to the stock and average weights increasing by +0.42%.</li>
</ul>


The difference in Indian exposures between Value and Aggressive Growth managers hits record wides of +10.5%.
Value managers are increasing underweights, with today’s level of -5.52% below benchmark the lowest on record.  Key underweights are Reliance Industries, Infosys, HDFC Limited, Bajaj Finance and Bharti Airtel
For Aggressive Growth funds, Infosys was a key driver behind the recent spike in exposure, with 8.6% of funds buying in to the stock and average weights increasing by +0.42%.


India: Value/Growth Divide Hits New Peak Among GEM Funds.

<ul>
<li>The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.</li>
<li>It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.</li>
</ul>


The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.
Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.
It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.


Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

India

Bharti Airtel Limited, a part of Bharti Enterprises, provides telecommunications services throughout India. The Company provides GSM Mobile Services, broadband, fixed line telephone services, long distance services (international & national) and enterprise services.

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Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)

Bond Market Monitor: Not Out of the Woods

On-going maturity extensions and exchange offers will keep investors away from China. India and Indonesia should be a better bond destination for...

Bondcritic

Bharti Airtel - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Bharti Airtel as "Low Risk" on our LARA scale, mainly driven by its strong market position as the second-largest player in India’s telco...

Lucror Analytics

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

India: Value/Growth Divide Hits New Peak Among GEM Funds.

The difference in Indian exposures between Value and Aggressive Growth managers hits record wides of +10.5%. Value managers go max underweight,...

Steven Holden

Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Sticking With Cyclical Value & Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology. 2-3 week bounce has likely run its course with $TOPIX $Nikkei 225,...

Vermilion Research

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