Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Bharti Airtel is the second-largest telecom player in India, with a c. 30% market share. It also has significant operations in Africa, and to a smaller extent Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The largest shareholders are Bharti Enterprises (42%) and Singtel (14%). Bharti Enterprises was founded/owned by Sunil Bharti Mittal. It is one of India's first conglomerates, with interests in telecommunications, space, insurance, real estate, hospitality and food.
We view Bharti Airtel as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale, mainly given its strong market position as the second-largest player in India’s telecom industry. The company owns robust network infrastructure across the country, with a broad customer base. We also note positively the improving industry outlook, with rationalising competition and industry consolidation benefiting Bharti Airtel, along with improving regulatory conditions. The company is committed to prudent balance-sheet management and stable leverage. However, capex requirements will likely remain substantial given Bharti Airtel's 5G rollout, with a risk that capex will be higher than projected.

Bharti Airtel is the second-largest telecom player in India, with a c. 30% market share. It also has significant operations in Africa, and to a smaller extent Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The largest shareholders are Bharti Enterprises (42%) and Singtel (14%). Bharti Enterprises was founded/owned by Sunil Bharti Mittal. It is one of India's first conglomerates, with interests in telecommunications, space, insurance, real estate, hospitality and food.
We view Bharti Airtel as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale, mainly given its strong market position as the second-largest player in India’s telecom industry. The company owns robust network infrastructure across the country, with a broad customer base. We also note positively the improving industry outlook, with rationalising competition and industry consolidation benefiting Bharti Airtel, along with improving regulatory conditions. The company is committed to prudent balance-sheet management and stable leverage. However, capex requirements will likely remain substantial given Bharti Airtel's 5G rollout, with a risk that capex will be higher than projected.

Bharti Airtel - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Bharti reported consol EBITDA of Rs245.9bn (up 12.6%QoQ; PLe: Rs230.6bn, BBGe: Rs237.4bn).</li><li>Adj PAT came in at Rs72.3bn (up 62.7%QoQ; PLe: Rs48.6bn, BBGe: Rs50.2bn).</li><li>There was an exceptional gain of Rs75.5bn primarily due to consolidation of Indus Towers and lower tax rate due to recognition of deferred tax asset on unrecognized losses.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharti reported consol EBITDA of Rs245.9bn (up 12.6%QoQ; PLe: Rs230.6bn, BBGe: Rs237.4bn).Adj PAT came in at Rs72.3bn (up 62.7%QoQ; PLe: Rs48.6bn, BBGe: Rs50.2bn).There was an exceptional gain of Rs75.5bn primarily due to consolidation of Indus Towers and lower tax rate due to recognition of deferred tax asset on unrecognized losses.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharti Airtel - Tariff Hike Drives Earnings

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Bharti Airtel (Bharti) delivered another strong quarter with an improvement in its key focus criteria, mainly: 1) AGR market share win with Bharti continuing to narrow the gap vs. RJio.</li><li>2) Higher incremental EBITDA margin, and profits growing faster.</li><li>3) Disciplined capital allocation with tight control on capex. The company has been calibrated on capex into spectrum, SA- 5G, FWA, and allied service</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharti Airtel (Bharti) delivered another strong quarter with an improvement in its key focus criteria, mainly: 1) AGR market share win with Bharti continuing to narrow the gap vs. RJio.2) Higher incremental EBITDA margin, and profits growing faster.3) Disciplined capital allocation with tight control on capex. The company has been calibrated on capex into spectrum, SA- 5G, FWA, and allied serviceContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharti Airtel - Value Creation from AGR Market Share Win + Capital Allocation + FCF + Deleveraging

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The company's digital portfolio is gaining momentum along with market share gains</li><li>The company maintained a substantial share of 4G/5G net ads in the market, with the 4G customer base expanding by 6.5 Mn QoQ and 25.2 Mn YoY.</li><li>This now constitutes 77.8% of the overall customer base.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The company's digital portfolio is gaining momentum along with market share gainsThe company maintained a substantial share of 4G/5G net ads in the market, with the 4G customer base expanding by 6.5 Mn QoQ and 25.2 Mn YoY.This now constitutes 77.8% of the overall customer base.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharti Airtel Ltd - Strong Business Matrix; ARPU Gains Continue

India

Bharti Airtel Limited, a part of Bharti Enterprises, provides telecommunications services throughout India. The Company provides GSM Mobile Services, broadband, fixed line telephone services, long distance services (international & national) and enterprise services.

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Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Bharti Airtel - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Bharti Airtel is the second-largest telecom player in India, with a c. 30% market share. It also has significant operations in Africa, and to a...

Lucror Analytics

Bharti Airtel - Tariff Hike Drives Earnings

Bharti reported consol EBITDA of Rs245.9bn (up 12.6%QoQ; PLe: Rs230.6bn, BBGe: Rs237.4bn).Adj PAT came in at Rs72.3bn (up 62.7%QoQ; PLe: Rs48.6bn,...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Bharti Airtel Ltd - Strong Business Matrix; ARPU Gains Continue

The company's digital portfolio is gaining momentum along with market share gains. The company maintained a substantial share of 4G/5G net ads in...

Axis Direct

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Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Bharti Airtel - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Bharti Airtel is the second-largest telecom player in India, with a c. 30% market share. It also has significant operations in Africa, and to a...

Lucror Analytics

Bharti Airtel - Tariff Hike Drives Earnings

Bharti reported consol EBITDA of Rs245.9bn (up 12.6%QoQ; PLe: Rs230.6bn, BBGe: Rs237.4bn).Adj PAT came in at Rs72.3bn (up 62.7%QoQ; PLe: Rs48.6bn,...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Bharti Airtel - Value Creation from AGR Market Share Win + Capital Allocation + FCF + Deleveraging

Bharti Airtel (Bharti) delivered another strong quarter with an improvement in its key focus criteria, mainly: 1) AGR market share win with Bharti...

ICICI Securities Limited

Bharti Airtel Ltd - Strong Business Matrix; ARPU Gains Continue

The company's digital portfolio is gaining momentum along with market share gains. The company maintained a substantial share of 4G/5G net ads in...

Axis Direct