Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.</p>
<p>Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.</p>
<p>Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.</p>
<p>The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:</p>
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.</p>

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

Equity Bottom-Up

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Department stores are under unprecedented pressure. Most stores in Tokyo were entirely closed for April with just a few food services available in some locations. The sector was already set to reduce store numbers and this gradual trend could now become a torrent. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings L (3099 JP)</a> looks worse off than some of its peers.</p>

Department stores are under unprecedented pressure. Most stores in Tokyo were entirely closed for April with just a few food services available in some locations. The sector was already set to reduce store numbers and this gradual trend could now become a torrent. Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings L (3099 JP) looks worse off than some of its peers.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/359/original/2020-06-30_04-46-42.png?1593460016" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143359"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/360/original/2020-06-30_04-47-13.png?1593460057" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143360"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>STAYIN' HOME</strong> - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">DCM (3050 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP),</a> both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16460:1" rel="noopener">Asahi (3333 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> being Monday's examples.</p>
<div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>13 Quarterly Results</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 2 Positive / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>:-6.2</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9ppt</li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><br>6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4</li>
</ul>
</div>



Source • Japan Analytics
STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM (3050 JP) and Keiyo (8168 JP), both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with Shimamura (8227 JP), Asahi (3333 JP), and J Front Retailing (3086 JP) being Monday's examples.


DAILY STATS


13 Quarterly Results




Results Score: 2 Positive / 11 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-6.2

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt




 6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions



Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STRESS TESTS</strong> - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.</p><p><strong>ALTMAN Z-SCORES</strong> - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  </p><p><strong>QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS</strong> - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries - <strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a></strong>,<strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a></strong>- have been excluded from this analysis. </p>

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

<p>With shoppers staying away in March and April, department stores are suddenly the most vulnerable sector of all.</p><p>Some department stores have improved in the past 20 years and, in the past five, the big players have poured investment into more modernisation. This has brought some success to the top firms, especially from wealthy consumers, but no one could have seen the virus crisis coming.</p><p>A major cull of stores was already expected, but those cuts are now likely to go much deeper. A sector that once had 313 stores and is now already down to 205 may only have capacity for 100.</p><p>A few chains will survive and thrive, however.</p>

With shoppers staying away in March and April, department stores are suddenly the most vulnerable sector of all.Some department stores have improved in the past 20 years and, in the past five, the big players have poured investment into more modernisation. This has brought some success to the top firms, especially from wealthy consumers, but no one could have seen the virus crisis coming.A major cull of stores was already expected, but those cuts are now likely to go much deeper. A sector that once had 313 stores and is now already down to 205 may only have capacity for 100.A few chains will survive and thrive, however.

Japan's Department Stores: The Most to Lose but Also the Hardest Hit

Japan

J. FRONT RETAILING CO., Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya.  J. FRONT RETAILING operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also manages subsidiaries which operate in wholesale businesses.

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J Front Retailing (3086 JP)

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Isetan-Mitsukoshi Losses Rising

Department stores are under unprecedented pressure. Most stores in Tokyo were entirely closed for April with just a few food services available in...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results & Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

Japan's Department Stores: The Most to Lose but Also the Hardest Hit

With shoppers staying away in March and April, department stores are suddenly the most vulnerable sector of all.Some department stores have...

Michael Causton

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