'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Equity Bottom-Up

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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/315/original/2019-02-09_12-04-43.png?1549681495" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78315"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
TUMBLING DICE - After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a> (-52%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27149" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1">Mercari (4385 JP)</a> (-50%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1">CyberAgent (4751 JP)</a> is the worst-performing large-cap Internet stock in Japan over the last seven months.  The company is the sector's leading foreigner-held stock with over 48% (60%+ of the float) held by institutional investors such as Baillie Gifford (11.9%), JP Morgan AM (6.9%), Tybourne Capital (5.1%) and Blackrock Japan (5.0%). Having outperformed the sector and the market annually over the last nine years by 38% and 25%, respectively, over the seven months since the stock peaked in terms of our Relative Price Score on 13th July, CyberAgent shares have declined by 56%, underperforming the market by 48% and the sector by 37%.
PASSIVE PERILS - We will discuss the 'perils ' of Passive TV in the DETAIL below. However, CyberAgent is yet another good example of the 'perils' of passive investing. On September 5th Nikkei Inc. announced that CyberAgent would replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19521" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19521:1">Furukawa (5715 JP)</a> in the Nikkei 225 index, with the inclusion occurring on October 1st. Since the ¥6050 intraday peak of the week before inclusion in the index, the shares have declined by 49% in 90 trading days.   
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/317/original/2019-02-09_12-52-50.png?1549684397" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78317"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: CyberAgent Way 2018</div>
SUMMARY - CyberAgent's business has three 'pillars', internet advertising, mobile gaming software, and media. The latter now includes the linear free-to-view AbemaTV business, which helped drive the share price to a post-listing high of ¥6930 in July 2018. Since then, business conditions for two of these 'pillars' have degraded significantly,  while the fledgeling TV business remains in 'up-front' investment mode. To cap what will be a turbulent year for CyberAgent, the company is moving into a new head office building in Shibuya called 'Abema Towers' in March. We shall refrain from making any analogies to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyscraper_Index" target="_blank">Skyscraper Index</a>. 
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This Insight will review: - 
<ul>
<li class="">CyberAgent's growth strategy</li>
<li class="">The company's track profitability track record from the perspective of Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT), Comprehensive Income and Operating Profit margins </li>
<li class="">The three main business segments - Internet Advertising, Game Software, and Media</li>
<li class="">Cash Flow and Valuation</li>
</ul>
We will also attempt to value AbemaTV and will reverse-engineer some target metrics that would justify the market's current implied ¥41b valuation for this business, a valuation that reached ¥543b only seven months ago. 
</div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/318/original/2019-02-09_13-06-39.png?1549685220" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78318"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: CyberAgent Way 2018</div>
VISION SHIFT? - In previous years, CyberAgent had a clear vision statement - 'To create the 21st century's leading company'. The company's recent performance has led to a change of tone, and CyberAgent is now rather more modestly just 'Aiming to be a company with medium to long-term supporters'.  In the vein of the lyrics from the best song on the best Rolling Stones album, Exile on Main Street, the business has recently been at 'all sixes and sevens and nines'. In the search for new 'supporters', we encourage CyberAgent to just 'keep on rolling', letting the dice fall where they may. 
<center><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6U8JlcB_BzA" width="963" height="722" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></center>
<div class="content-caption">Exile on Main Street/Tumbling Dice - Jagger/Richards 1972 </div>




Source: Japan Analytics

TUMBLING DICE - After ZOZO (3092 JP) (-52%) and Mercari (4385 JP) (-50%), CyberAgent (4751 JP) is the worst-performing large-cap Internet stock in Japan over the last seven months.  The company is the sector's leading foreigner-held stock with over 48% (60%+ of the float) held by institutional investors such as Baillie Gifford (11.9%), JP Morgan AM (6.9%), Tybourne Capital (5.1%) and Blackrock Japan (5.0%). Having outperformed the sector and the market annually over the last nine years by 38% and 25%, respectively, over the seven months since the stock peaked in terms of our Relative Price Score on 13th July, CyberAgent shares have declined by 56%, underperforming the market by 48% and the sector by 37%.
PASSIVE PERILS - We will discuss the 'perils ' of Passive TV in the DETAIL below. However, CyberAgent is yet another good example of the 'perils' of passive investing. On September 5th Nikkei Inc. announced that CyberAgent would replace Furukawa (5715 JP) in the Nikkei 225 index, with the inclusion occurring on October 1st. Since the ¥6050 intraday peak of the week before inclusion in the index, the shares have declined by 49% in 90 trading days.   

Source: CyberAgent Way 2018
SUMMARY - CyberAgent's business has three 'pillars', internet advertising, mobile gaming software, and media. The latter now includes the linear free-to-view AbemaTV business, which helped drive the share price to a post-listing high of ¥6930 in July 2018. Since then, business conditions for two of these 'pillars' have degraded significantly,  while the fledgeling TV business remains in 'up-front' investment mode. To cap what will be a turbulent year for CyberAgent, the company is moving into a new head office building in Shibuya called 'Abema Towers' in March. We shall refrain from making any analogies to the Skyscraper Index. 

This Insight will review: - 

CyberAgent's growth strategy
The company's track profitability track record from the perspective of Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT), Comprehensive Income and Operating Profit margins 
The three main business segments - Internet Advertising, Game Software, and Media
Cash Flow and Valuation

We will also attempt to value AbemaTV and will reverse-engineer some target metrics that would justify the market's current implied ¥41b valuation for this business, a valuation that reached ¥543b only seven months ago. 


Source: CyberAgent Way 2018
VISION SHIFT? - In previous years, CyberAgent had a clear vision statement - 'To create the 21st century's leading company'. The company's recent performance has led to a change of tone, and CyberAgent is now rather more modestly just 'Aiming to be a company with medium to long-term supporters'.  In the vein of the lyrics from the best song on the best Rolling Stones album, Exile on Main Street, the business has recently been at 'all sixes and sevens and nines'. In the search for new 'supporters', we encourage CyberAgent to just 'keep on rolling', letting the dice fall where they may. 

Exile on Main Street/Tumbling Dice - Jagger/Richards 1972 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and emerging market indexes. Our outlook remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation across global equity markets.  We offer technical insights on major markets, and highlight a number of actionable bottoms up ideas.

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and emerging market indexes. Our outlook remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation across global equity markets.  We offer technical insights on major markets, and highlight a number of actionable bottoms up ideas.

Global Equity Strategy: Still Cautious Despite Oversold Conditions

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1">Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported FY09/18 financial results last Thursday (25th October). CyberAgent reported revenue of JPY420bn (+13%YoY) and OP of JPY30bn (-2%YoY) for FY09/18. OP was in line with the company’s guidance but below our previous estimate (JPY40bn) and consensus (JPY34bn). This was mostly due to higher investments into its passive TV business, “AbemaTV”, and a delay in the release of its new game title, “Dragalia Lost”, than we had anticipated.CyberAgent’s share price closed at JPY4,520 on Monday (29th October), down 18% from last Wednesday’s close (JPY5,500). CyberAgent’s share price has been on a bearish trend for the last quarter, down 34% from an all-time high of JPY6,800 in July.Our SOTP valuation for CyberAgent gives a FY1 target price of JPY5,690 which implies a 26% upside to the current market price. Our longer-term target for CyberAgent is in the range of JPY7,500-8,000 driven by the prospects of its passive TV business (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/713" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713">Mio Kato</a>'s previous note on this <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cyberagent-aggressive-plans-for-passive-tv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:24455">Cyberagent: Aggressive Plans for Passive TV</a>).For details on Cyberagent's business model please see our previous notes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cyberagent-hot-internet-media-stock-up-50-ytd-part-1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21690">CyberAgent: Hot Internet Media Stock Up ~50% YTD (Part 1)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cyberagent-part-ii-medium-term-prospects-are-priced-in-positive-long-term-outlook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22016">CyberAgent (Part II): Medium-Term Prospects Are Priced In; Positive Long-Term Outlook</a> .

Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported FY09/18 financial results last Thursday (25th October). CyberAgent reported revenue of JPY420bn (+13%YoY) and OP of JPY30bn (-2%YoY) for FY09/18. OP was in line with the company’s guidance but below our previous estimate (JPY40bn) and consensus (JPY34bn). This was mostly due to higher investments into its passive TV business, “AbemaTV”, and a delay in the release of its new game title, “Dragalia Lost”, than we had anticipated.CyberAgent’s share price closed at JPY4,520 on Monday (29th October), down 18% from last Wednesday’s close (JPY5,500). CyberAgent’s share price has been on a bearish trend for the last quarter, down 34% from an all-time high of JPY6,800 in July.Our SOTP valuation for CyberAgent gives a FY1 target price of JPY5,690 which implies a 26% upside to the current market price. Our longer-term target for CyberAgent is in the range of JPY7,500-8,000 driven by the prospects of its passive TV business (see Mio Kato's previous note on this Cyberagent: Aggressive Plans for Passive TV).For details on Cyberagent's business model please see our previous notes CyberAgent: Hot Internet Media Stock Up ~50% YTD (Part 1) and CyberAgent (Part II): Medium-Term Prospects Are Priced In; Positive Long-Term Outlook .

CyberAgent Down 18% After FY09/18 Earnings; We Are Still Bullish

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

DA Consortium Holdings Inc / Event-Driven

Through its wholly-owned subsidiaries Hakuhodo DY Media Partners and Hakuhodo Incorporated, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8736" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a> owns 50.54% of listed subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27327" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27327:1">DA Consortium Holdings Inc (6534 JP)</a> (Hakuhodo DY Media Partners owns 42.85% and HI owns 7.69% of voting rights) which is a joint holding company specializing in internet advertising, SEO and advertisement services from the integration of DA Consortium (4281 JP) and IREP Co (2132 JP) announced in May 2016 and consummated in October 2016.At a…

Through its wholly-owned subsidiaries Hakuhodo DY Media Partners and Hakuhodo Incorporated, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) owns 50.54% of listed subsidiary DA Consortium Holdings Inc (6534 JP) (Hakuhodo DY Media Partners owns 42.85% and HI owns 7.69% of voting rights) which is a joint holding company specializing in internet advertising, SEO and advertisement services from the integration of DA Consortium (4281 JP) and IREP Co (2132 JP) announced in May 2016 and consummated in October 2016.At a…

Hakuhodo DY (2433 JP) Launches Tender Offer for DA Consortium (6534 JP)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

Japan

HAKUHODO DY HOLDINGS INCORPORATED is a holding company established through the merger of Hakuhodo Inc., Daiko Advertising Inc., and Yomiko Advertising Inc. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides comprehensive advertising services.

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Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)

CyberAgent: Tumbling Dice

TUMBLING DICE - After ZOZO (3092 JP) (-52%) and Mercari (4385 JP) (-50%), CyberAgent (4751 JP) is the worst-performing large-cap Internet stock in...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Still Cautious Despite Oversold Conditions

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and...

Vermilion Research

CyberAgent Down 18% After FY09/18 Earnings; We Are Still Bullish

Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported FY09/18 financial results last Thursday (25th October). CyberAgent reported revenue of JPY420bn (+13%YoY) and OP...

Supun Walpola

Hakuhodo DY (2433 JP) Launches Tender Offer for DA Consortium (6534 JP)

Through its wholly-owned subsidiaries Hakuhodo DY Media Partners and Hakuhodo Incorporated, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) owns 50.54% of listed...

Travis Lundy

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

DOMESTIC DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ - The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter...

Campbell Gunn

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