Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area</li>
<li>From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm</li>
<li>The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized</li>
</ul>


It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area
From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm
The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized


China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 16th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 16th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for CCB.


<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 9th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 9th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The May data was weak, though the 12-month Y/Y metrics keep showing improvements, "less negative"; everyone expects more stimulus, a big question is its scope and the extent</li>
<li>The indicators for land sales/acquisitions improved, though, on most metrics in May</li>
<li>May was the third month in a row with a downward revision to some 2022 data</li>
</ul>


The May data was weak, though the 12-month Y/Y metrics keep showing improvements, "less negative"; everyone expects more stimulus, a big question is its scope and the extent
The indicators for land sales/acquisitions improved, though, on most metrics in May
May was the third month in a row with a downward revision to some 2022 data


China Property - Today's Macro Property Data (NBS) For May

<ul>
<li>The common narrative today is how the deteriorating demographics in China will have a negative impact on the housing demand</li>
<li>The official aggregate figures indicate the same with the population aging, birth, and marriage data</li>
<li>The twist to this narrative is that <strong>in the near term, the situation for the non-rural population growth looks quite different from the overall figures</strong>
</li>
</ul>


The common narrative today is how the deteriorating demographics in China will have a negative impact on the housing demand
The official aggregate figures indicate the same with the population aging, birth, and marriage data
The twist to this narrative is that in the near term, the situation for the non-rural population growth looks quite different from the overall figures



China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #2: The “Demographic Twist"

China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

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Longfor Properties (960 HK)

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

China Property: Why Is the Under-Construction GFA so high and the Sales-Completions gap so large? We dig into the data definitions and industry...

Robert Ciemniak

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 16th): CCB

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week. We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 9th and highlight short interest changes in Longfor, Yuexiu Property,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Property - Today's Macro Property Data (NBS) For May

China released the official macro-property data today. We dissect the key metrics and read out the data, addressing the key data caveats.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #2: The “Demographic Twist"

The common saying goes "China will get old before it gets rich", but for the market for new homes, there are some important twists to the...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)