Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

TVS Supply Chain Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-supply-chain-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36778:1" rel="noopener">TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$110m in its India IPO, after downsizing from an earlier float of up to US$500m.</li>
<li>TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics solution provider which also has global capabilities and network across the value chain with cross deployment abilities, according to RedSeer. </li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and provide our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN) is looking to raise up to US$110m in its India IPO, after downsizing from an earlier float of up to US$500m.
TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics solution provider which also has global capabilities and network across the value chain with cross deployment abilities, according to RedSeer. 
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and provide our thoughts on valuation.


TVS Supply Chain Solutions IPO - RHP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger could complete earlier than previously expected, triggering <em>intra-review</em> index replacements.</li>
<li>Separately, I have presented some interesting new trading ideas involving some of the index change candidates, and I discuss the status of pre-existing trade ideas.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
The HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) - HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger could complete earlier than previously expected, triggering intra-review index replacements.
Separately, I have presented some interesting new trading ideas involving some of the index change candidates, and I discuss the status of pre-existing trade ideas.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Some Interesting Long-Short Trades

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>A couple of these names could become intra-review additions if the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> Merger closes prior to the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Apart from that, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 100 index which by definition will also be added/deleted from the NIFTY Next 50 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
A couple of these names could become intra-review additions if the HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) - HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Merger closes prior to the September 2023 Rebalance.
Apart from that, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 100 index which by definition will also be added/deleted from the NIFTY Next 50 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: LTIMINDTREE Could Be an Intra-Review NIFTY 50 ADD

India

Tech Mahindra Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company markets software for telecommunications equipment manufacturers, telecom service providers, software vendors, and systems integrators.

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Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

TVS Supply Chain Solutions IPO - RHP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN) is looking to raise up to US$110m in its India IPO, after downsizing from an earlier float of up to US$500m.

Ethan Aw

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Some Interesting Long-Short Trades

Apart from the HDFC merger-related intra-review change, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 100 index (and the NIFTY Next 50 index) but I...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: LTIMINDTREE Could Be an Intra-Review NIFTY 50 ADD

LTIMindtree is currently the highest-ranked NIFTY 50 Potential ADD and is likely to be the favourite to replace HDFC in the NIFTY 50 index if the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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