External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Infosys: Infosys (INFO IN) delivered strong growth in Q1, offset by steeper impact on margins (yet relative outperformance vs peers)</li><li>INFO increased its revenue guidance for FY23E to 14-16% (vs 13-15% earlier) and EBITM guidance was maintained at 21-23%, with a tilt to the lower end</li><li>We expect INFO’s margin recovery ahead, supported by sub-contractor optimisation (~100bps lever) and utilisation increase on trainee productivity (~50bps lever)</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Infosys: Infosys (INFO IN) delivered strong growth in Q1, offset by steeper impact on margins (yet relative outperformance vs peers)INFO increased its revenue guidance for FY23E to 14-16% (vs 13-15% earlier) and EBITM guidance was maintained at 21-23%, with a tilt to the lower endWe expect INFO’s margin recovery ahead, supported by sub-contractor optimisation (~100bps lever) and utilisation increase on trainee productivity (~50bps lever)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Infosys, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Crompton Consumer

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Top-down assessment: Despite the correlation to the macro, the demand for the sector is structural (double-digit CAGR over five years is high probability).</li><li>Enterprise trends–growth vectors: Enterprise tech spends are strong and there’s limited impact on overall growth due to any vertical-specific slowdown.</li><li>Cloud partnerships–the second order impact: Tech value migration towards cloud providers is underway and will drive the growth curve of SIs.</li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li><div><div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li> </li></ul></div></div></div></div></li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Top-down assessment: Despite the correlation to the macro, the demand for the sector is structural (double-digit CAGR over five years is high probability).Enterprise trends–growth vectors: Enterprise tech spends are strong and there’s limited impact on overall growth due to any vertical-specific slowdown.Cloud partnerships–the second order impact: Tech value migration towards cloud providers is underway and will drive the growth curve of SIs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

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<div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 key takeaways: While the revenues were broadly in line with expectations, supply-side challenges meant that margins disappointed.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>A massive margin regime change on the cards in FY24, but this will not mean much from a stock performance perspective in the next 12 months:</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Tier-2 could face significant risks in the new environment: We fear Indian Tier-2 IT would suffer more because of vendor consolidation under the pressured profit picture for customers, a less diversified revenue mix (client, service line, vertical), which could throw up negative growth surprises, and a larger exposure to non-Global 1000 clientele whose profits are more vulnerable in the current challenging macro environment. Indian Tier-2 IT is now at a PE premium of ~20% to Tier-1 from a discount of 14% on 1st January, 2020.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

4QFY22 key takeaways: While the revenues were broadly in line with expectations, supply-side challenges meant that margins disappointed.A massive margin regime change on the cards in FY24, but this will not mean much from a stock performance perspective in the next 12 months:Tier-2 could face significant risks in the new environment: We fear Indian Tier-2 IT would suffer more because of vendor consolidation under the pressured profit picture for customers, a less diversified revenue mix (client, service line, vertical), which could throw up negative growth surprises, and a larger exposure to non-Global 1000 clientele whose profits are more vulnerable in the current challenging macro environment. Indian Tier-2 IT is now at a PE premium of ~20% to Tier-1 from a discount of 14% on 1st January, 2020.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sector Update - Cut Target Prices yet Again; Customer Stress Shows up Earlier than Expected

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Need to see how 5G spending holds up in a stagflationary environment: 5G related demand is one of the reasons why we and the street have been bullish on TML.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>While we are at the beginning of the 5G spend cycle (which could play out over a longer time compared to the 4G cycle, according to industry), we think the spends may be a bit cyclically constrained in 2HFY23 and in FY24 before they recover eventually - quite similar to how we expect the digital spends to behave.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>However, unlike in Digital, we believe that TML has a better right to win in the this area because of its long-standing relationships has with &gt;150 Telcos, to which it has likely added a lot of value over the years.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Need to see how 5G spending holds up in a stagflationary environment: 5G related demand is one of the reasons why we and the street have been bullish on TML.While we are at the beginning of the 5G spend cycle (which could play out over a longer time compared to the 4G cycle, according to industry), we think the spends may be a bit cyclically constrained in 2HFY23 and in FY24 before they recover eventually - quite similar to how we expect the digital spends to behave.However, unlike in Digital, we believe that TML has a better right to win in the this area because of its long-standing relationships has with &gt;150 Telcos, to which it has likely added a lot of value over the years.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tech Mahindra - Margin Pressure Higher; Reduce Target Multiple on Vulnerability

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<li>Tech Mahindra: With in-line revenue growth of +5.3% QoQ CC (organic ~2.2%), healthy net new deal wins (FY22 +48% YoY) lending growth visibility, and valuation reverting to its historical average, we maintain ADD on Tech Mahindra (TECHM).</li>
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<li>Eicher Motors: Royal Enfield posted better-than-expected margin in Q4 (up 310bps QoQ), led by improved volumes and better mix.</li>
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<li>Emami: Emami posted a slight beat on revenue and in-line EBITDA growth.</li>
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<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>





Tech Mahindra: With in-line revenue growth of +5.3% QoQ CC (organic ~2.2%), healthy net new deal wins (FY22 +48% YoY) lending growth visibility, and valuation reverting to its historical average, we maintain ADD on Tech Mahindra (TECHM).





Eicher Motors: Royal Enfield posted better-than-expected margin in Q4 (up 310bps QoQ), led by improved volumes and better mix.





Emami: Emami posted a slight beat on revenue and in-line EBITDA growth.










Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Tech Mahindra, Eicher Motors, Emami, CreditAccess Grameen, Brigade Enterprises

India

Tech Mahindra Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company markets software for telecommunications equipment manufacturers, telecom service providers, software vendors, and systems integrators.

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Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Infosys, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Crompton Consumer

Infosys: Infosys (INFO IN) delivered strong growth in Q1, offset by steeper impact on margins (yet relative outperformance vs peers)

HDFC Securities

IT Sector - Decoding Signal from Noise

In this note, we decode the signal from noise and probe some key questions: (1) How structural is the demand and how correlated is it to the macros...

HDFC Securities

Sector Update - Cut Target Prices yet Again; Customer Stress Shows up Earlier than Expected

Just 40 days post our downgrade of the IT sector to ‘underweight’, we have reduced target prices yet again and have moved our entire coverage...

Nirmal Bang

Tech Mahindra - Margin Pressure Higher; Reduce Target Multiple on Vulnerability

Tech Mahindra’s (TML) 4QFY22 revenue grew by 5.4% QoQ in CC terms against our estimate of 6%, of which ~250bps was inorganic contribution. EBIT...

Nirmal Bang

HSIE Results Daily: Tech Mahindra, Eicher Motors, Emami, CreditAccess Grameen, Brigade Enterprises

Tech Mahindra: With in-line revenue growth of +5.3% QoQ CC (organic ~2.2%), healthy net new deal wins (FY22 +48% YoY) lending growth visibility

HDFC Securities

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