Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13644" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13644:1">Coach Inc (COH US)</a> fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16 earnings results on the morning of August 9th. We remain bearish on the stock; in our view, the Street's sales and earnings estimates for FY17 and FY18 remain far too optimistic given weaker spending by Asian tourists in the US and overly aggressive Street assumptions for Japanese and Chinese consumer spending. We also believe that COH will struggle to…

Coach Inc (COH US) fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16 earnings results on the morning of August 9th. We remain bearish on the stock; in our view, the Street's sales and earnings estimates for FY17 and FY18 remain far too optimistic given weaker spending by Asian tourists in the US and overly aggressive Street assumptions for Japanese and Chinese consumer spending. We also believe that COH will struggle to…

July Tourism & Macro Data Suggest Coach Q1 FY17 Will Disappoint

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li class="p1">During the past month, authorities have raided pawn shops&nbsp;in Macau that use illegal terminals, economic data in China&nbsp;has shown signs of weakening and Macau gaming revenue&nbsp;in August showed a decline of 35.5% year over year.</li><li class="p1">We&nbsp;plan to adjust our 2015 industry gaming revenue decline&nbsp;from mid-20% to low-30%, partially offset by higher growth&nbsp;in 2017-18 due to the expected completion of the Hong&nbsp;Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge in 2017.</li><li class="p1">With a lower revenue base, we have implemented cuts to&nbsp;our fair value estimates: down 15% for MGM China to HKD17.00 per share; down 10% for Galaxy Entertainment to HKD&nbsp;37.00 per share; down 8% for SJM Holdings to HKD 11.00&nbsp;per share; and down 8% for Sands China to HKD 33.00 per&nbsp;share.</li><li class="p1">Our fair value estimate declined by less than 5% for&nbsp;Wynn Macau; thus, we maintain our fair value estimate of&nbsp;HKD 15.00 per share unchanged</li></ul>Analysts: Brian Han and Chelsey TamFull report below the fold...

During the past month, authorities have raided pawn shops&nbsp;in Macau that use illegal terminals, economic data in China&nbsp;has shown signs of weakening and Macau gaming revenue&nbsp;in August showed a decline of 35.5% year over year.We&nbsp;plan to adjust our 2015 industry gaming revenue decline&nbsp;from mid-20% to low-30%, partially offset by higher growth&nbsp;in 2017-18 due to the expected completion of the Hong&nbsp;Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge in 2017.With a lower revenue base, we have implemented cuts to&nbsp;our fair value estimates: down 15% for MGM China to HKD17.00 per share; down 10% for Galaxy Entertainment to HKD&nbsp;37.00 per share; down 8% for SJM Holdings to HKD 11.00&nbsp;per share; and down 8% for Sands China to HKD 33.00 per&nbsp;share.Our fair value estimate declined by less than 5% for&nbsp;Wynn Macau; thus, we maintain our fair value estimate of&nbsp;HKD 15.00 per share unchangedAnalysts: Brian Han and Chelsey TamFull report below the fold...

Downgrading FVEs of Macau Gaming Coverage; China Economy and Policies Extend Near-Term Uncertainty

Hong Kong

SJM Holdings Limited offers amusement and recreation services.  The Company operates casinos, hotels, and other tourism-related facilities in Macau.

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SJM Holdings (880 HK)

July Tourism & Macro Data Suggest Coach Q1 FY17 Will Disappoint

Coach Inc (COH US) fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16...

Daniel Hellberg

Downgrading FVEs of Macau Gaming Coverage; China Economy and Policies Extend Near-Term Uncertainty

During the past month, authorities have raided pawn shops in Macau that use illegal terminals, economic data in China has shown signs of weakening...

Morningstar, Inc.

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