Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in late-2024/early-2025.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in late-2024/early-2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: APP, APO, and TPL May Be ADDs, Watch SP600 DELs

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monolithic-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2088:1" rel="noopener">Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US)</a> is a direct addition followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> which is a conditional addition but close to be direct. Demand is ~$1.8bn and ~3.5 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is a direct deletion with the highest exclusion probability as it is  ranked above the exit rank of 125. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna (MRNA US)</a> are amongst the prioritized constituents preventing eligible candidates from entering the index. </li>
</ul>



Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US) is a direct addition followed by AppLovin (APP US) which is a conditional addition but close to be direct. Demand is ~$1.8bn and ~3.5 ADV.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is a direct deletion with the highest exclusion probability as it is  ranked above the exit rank of 125. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) , ARM Holdings (ARM US) and Moderna (MRNA US) are amongst the prioritized constituents preventing eligible candidates from entering the index. 


Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

Erie Indemnity Company Cl A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is the main addition by transition candidate with a <em>reduced</em> probability due to no longer passing the S&amp;P 500 transition threshold.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erie-indemnity-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4804:1" rel="noopener">Erie Indemnity (ERIE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lennox-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16420:1" rel="noopener">Lennox International (LII US)</a> are the main addition by migration candidates with an <em>increased</em> probability due to weak transition candidates.</li>
<li>Addition by migration candidates have more inconsistent selection patterns. Other addition candidates include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlisle-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7929:1" rel="noopener">Carlisle Cos (CSL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dick-s-sporting-goods-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1675:1" rel="noopener">Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS US)</a> .</li>
</ul>



Dell Technologies (DELL US) is the main addition by transition candidate with a reduced probability due to no longer passing the S&amp;P 500 transition threshold.

Erie Indemnity (ERIE US) and Lennox International (LII US) are the main addition by migration candidates with an increased probability due to weak transition candidates.
Addition by migration candidates have more inconsistent selection patterns. Other addition candidates include Texas Pacific Land (TPL US), Carlisle Cos (CSL US) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS US) .


S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GRAIL, a commercial-stage healthcare company and maker of MCED blood test called Galleri, reported its quarterly results for the first time as independent publicly traded company.</li>
<li>The 2Q print was solid, with +43% y/y revenue growth, ~35,200 Galleri tests sold and ~$32M total revenue all better than expected.</li>
<li>Finally, management expects moderate revenue growth rates in 2025 and subsequent years due to cost reductions and decreasing investment in other programs beyond Galleri.</li>
</ul>


GRAIL, a commercial-stage healthcare company and maker of MCED blood test called Galleri, reported its quarterly results for the first time as independent publicly traded company.
The 2Q print was solid, with +43% y/y revenue growth, ~35,200 Galleri tests sold and ~$32M total revenue all better than expected.
Finally, management expects moderate revenue growth rates in 2025 and subsequent years due to cost reductions and decreasing investment in other programs beyond Galleri.


GRAIL: Focus on MCED Tests, New Restructuring Plan and Solid 2Q Print With +43% Y/Y Revenue Growth

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In June of 2024, GRAIL, a market leader in early cancer detection, spun off from Illumina into an independent publicly traded company.</li>
<li>Following the spin-off, Illumina retains up to ~15% ownership interest in GRAIL and continues to fund GRAIL’s operations and R&amp;D with disposal funding of ~$974M.</li>
<li>I view GRAIL as a market leader in the MCED testing market and uniquely positioned to be very effective in detecting some of the most aggressive early-stage cancers.</li>
</ul>


In June of 2024, GRAIL, a market leader in early cancer detection, spun off from Illumina into an independent publicly traded company.
Following the spin-off, Illumina retains up to ~15% ownership interest in GRAIL and continues to fund GRAIL’s operations and R&amp;D with disposal funding of ~$974M.
I view GRAIL as a market leader in the MCED testing market and uniquely positioned to be very effective in detecting some of the most aggressive early-stage cancers.


GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

United States

Illumina, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets integrated systems for the large scale analysis of genetic variation and biological function. The Company provides a comprehensive line of products and services that currently serve the sequencing, genotyping and gene expression markets for genomic research centers, pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions and biotechnology companies.

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Illumina Inc (ILMN US)

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: APP, APO, and TPL May Be ADDs, Watch SP600 DELs

The S&P500/400/600 Dec24 review will be announced in just over 10 days. There is an intra-review change in SP600 first, and perhaps a few more in...

Travis Lundy

Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...

Dimitris Ioannidis

S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

ERIE, DELL and PLTR were the announced additions and the top migration and transition candidates. To improve convictions, transitions and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

GRAIL: Focus on MCED Tests, New Restructuring Plan and Solid 2Q Print With +43% Y/Y Revenue Growth

GRAIL reported solid 2Q results as a public company. Revenue growth accelerated and the company ended 2Q’FY24 with ~$959M of cash and cash...

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

GRAIL, a fast-growing Galleri test maker, spun off from Illumina in June. The population-scale MCED screening test identifies 50+ types of cancer...

Andrei Zakharov

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Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: APP, APO, and TPL May Be ADDs, Watch SP600 DELs

The S&P500/400/600 Dec24 review will be announced in just over 10 days. There is an intra-review change in SP600 first, and perhaps a few more in...

Travis Lundy

Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

​MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...

Dimitris Ioannidis

S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

ERIE, DELL and PLTR were the announced additions and the top migration and transition candidates. To improve convictions, transitions and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

GRAIL: Focus on MCED Tests, New Restructuring Plan and Solid 2Q Print With +43% Y/Y Revenue Growth

GRAIL reported solid 2Q results as a public company. Revenue growth accelerated and the company ended 2Q’FY24 with ~$959M of cash and cash...

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

GRAIL, a fast-growing Galleri test maker, spun off from Illumina in June. The population-scale MCED screening test identifies 50+ types of cancer...

Andrei Zakharov

MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...