US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.

AppLovin (APP US) and Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Illumina delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.</li><li>Despite lower revenue, non-GAAP net income surpassed expectations at $52 million or $0.33 per diluted share.</li><li>While Core Illumina sequencing consumables revenue dropped 4% year-over-year, clinical sequencing consumables experienced a 10% growth, mitigating the decline.</li></ul>

Illumina delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.Despite lower revenue, non-GAAP net income surpassed expectations at $52 million or $0.33 per diluted share.While Core Illumina sequencing consumables revenue dropped 4% year-over-year, clinical sequencing consumables experienced a 10% growth, mitigating the decline.

Illumina Inc: The Inside Story of Steady Revenues and Strategic Expansions! - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/williams-sonoma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11383:1" rel="noopener">Williams Sonoma (WSM US)</a> is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-airlines-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3663:1" rel="noopener">American Airlines Group (AAL US)</a> is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.</li>
</ul>



Dell Technologies (DELL US) is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.

Williams Sonoma (WSM US) is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.

American Airlines Group (AAL US) is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.


S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On Friday, the S&amp;P index committee announced the June 2024 changes to the three major indices in the S&amp;P1500 universe. </li>
<li>KKR, Crowdstrike (CRWD), and GoDaddy (GDDY) replace Robert Half (RHI), Comerica (CMA), and Illumina (ILMN) in the S&amp;P500. There are 6 ADDs to S&amp;PMidCap400, 13 DELETEs from Sm600. </li>
<li>There are some BIG and impactful flows here. Some are very big. Netted 2-way flow on 21 June is ~US$66-80bn. But as always, details matter. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, the S&amp;P index committee announced the June 2024 changes to the three major indices in the S&amp;P1500 universe. 
KKR, Crowdstrike (CRWD), and GoDaddy (GDDY) replace Robert Half (RHI), Comerica (CMA), and Illumina (ILMN) in the S&amp;P500. There are 6 ADDs to S&amp;PMidCap400, 13 DELETEs from Sm600. 
There are some BIG and impactful flows here. Some are very big. Netted 2-way flow on 21 June is ~US$66-80bn. But as always, details matter. 


Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management (APO US)</a> are the main candidates for addition by transition as they are passing the estimated transition threshold and have strong eligibility metrics.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)</a> is the main candidate for addition by migration - despite failing eligibility - due to its significant distance above the minimum S&amp;P500 mcap threshold. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emcor-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20703:1" rel="noopener">Emcor Group (EME US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lennox-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16420:1" rel="noopener">Lennox International (LII US)</a> are the next candidates for addition by migration with both passing eligibility and adequate distance above the mcap threshold. </li>
</ul>



AppLovin (APP US) and Apollo Global Management (APO US) are the main candidates for addition by transition as they are passing the estimated transition threshold and have strong eligibility metrics.  

Texas Pacific Land (TPL US) is the main candidate for addition by migration - despite failing eligibility - due to its significant distance above the minimum S&amp;P500 mcap threshold. 

Emcor Group (EME US) and Lennox International (LII US) are the next candidates for addition by migration with both passing eligibility and adequate distance above the mcap threshold. 


S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

United States

Illumina, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets integrated systems for the large scale analysis of genetic variation and biological function. The Company provides a comprehensive line of products and services that currently serve the sequencing, genotyping and gene expression markets for genomic research centers, pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions and biotechnology companies.

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Illumina Inc (ILMN US)

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Fast-Exit has been announced and will be implemented for DLTR at the close of 15 November 2024 where the stock will be deleted from Nasdaq100 and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Illumina Inc: The Inside Story of Steady Revenues and Strategic Expansions! - Major Drivers

Illumina delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus. Despite lower revenue, non-GAAP net income...

Baptista Research

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

The S&P500/400/600 rebalance is interesting. As usual, some names will get overbought early, and others will not get bought enough. For a bunch of...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) - the top migration candidate - has been announced as an addition to S&P500 prior to the quarterly review as it is...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Fast-Exit has been announced and will be implemented for DLTR at the close of 15 November 2024 where the stock will be deleted from Nasdaq100 and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Illumina Inc: The Inside Story of Steady Revenues and Strategic Expansions! - Major Drivers

Illumina delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus. Despite lower revenue, non-GAAP net income...

Baptista Research

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

​Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

The S&P500/400/600 rebalance is interesting. As usual, some names will get overbought early, and others will not get bought enough. For a bunch of...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) - the top migration candidate - has been announced as an addition to S&P500 prior to the quarterly review as it is...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...