Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <em>Nikkei Leak Article</em> of the Hitachi Transport takeover price is out. That suggests board meetings and deal announcement are imminent</li>
<li>The price suggested in the article comes out to be just under ¥8,000. </li>
<li>Past deals between KKR and Hitachi for Hitachi subs (and the language of the article on deal structure) suggest the minority Tender Offer Price could be different.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Leak Article of the Hitachi Transport takeover price is out. That suggests board meetings and deal announcement are imminent
The price suggested in the article comes out to be just under ¥8,000. 
Past deals between KKR and Hitachi for Hitachi subs (and the language of the article on deal structure) suggest the minority Tender Offer Price could be different.


Hitachi Transport (9086) Takeover Deal Imminent

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.</li>
<li>From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.</li>
<li>Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.</li>
</ul>


On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.
From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.
Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.


TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hitachi is evacuating more than 7,000 GlobalLogic employees from Ukraine to other countries, but IT workers are mobile and these may have more work due to cyber attacks.</li>
<li>Hitachi Construction Machinery and other Hitachi Group divisions do some business in Ukraine, but we expect the impact of the crisis to be manageable and temporary.</li>
<li>Hitachi Ltd shares are down 25% since November and the P/E ratio is near the bottom of its historical range. </li>
</ul>


Hitachi is evacuating more than 7,000 GlobalLogic employees from Ukraine to other countries, but IT workers are mobile and these may have more work due to cyber attacks.
Hitachi Construction Machinery and other Hitachi Group divisions do some business in Ukraine, but we expect the impact of the crisis to be manageable and temporary.
Hitachi Ltd shares are down 25% since November and the P/E ratio is near the bottom of its historical range. 


Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Assessing Exposure to Ukraine - Buy into the Sell-Off

<ul>
<li>Hitachi is, as the media fuss suggests, in the last stages of its re-formation after ridding itself of nearly two-dozen listed subs over the last decade-plus.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086)</a> is the last major sub/affiliate without a new home. Hitachi owns just under 40%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26070:1" rel="noopener">SG Holdings (9143 JP)</a> owns just under 10%. Both want to sell.</li>
<li>It is not clear HTS wants to be taken private, but there could be an interesting financial engineering solution to suit the sellers. </li>
</ul>


Hitachi is, as the media fuss suggests, in the last stages of its re-formation after ridding itself of nearly two-dozen listed subs over the last decade-plus.

Hitachi Transport System (9086) is the last major sub/affiliate without a new home. Hitachi owns just under 40%. SG Holdings (9143 JP) owns just under 10%. Both want to sell.
It is not clear HTS wants to be taken private, but there could be an interesting financial engineering solution to suit the sellers. 


Hitachi Transport System (9086) - Not a Clear Outcome But Interesting Possibilities

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Thursday we saw news of a Hitachi sale of half its stake in HCM. Friday the stock traded down hard. Friday night saw news that underwhelmed further. </li>
<li>The deal is big, but it is basically a deal to get Hitachi out as parent. There is no Capital Alliance and there is no Strategic Alliance yet. </li>
<li>There simply is not much there, there yet. And the stock is less liquid than it looks, and that won't get better any time soon.</li>
</ul>


On Thursday we saw news of a Hitachi sale of half its stake in HCM. Friday the stock traded down hard. Friday night saw news that underwhelmed further. 
The deal is big, but it is basically a deal to get Hitachi out as parent. There is no Capital Alliance and there is no Strategic Alliance yet. 
There simply is not much there, there yet. And the stock is less liquid than it looks, and that won't get better any time soon.


Hitachi Construction Machinery Deal To Change "Parent" - There's Not Much There There

Japan

Hitachi, Ltd. manufactures communications and electronic equipment, heavy electrical and industrial machinery, and consumer electronics.  The Company's diverse product line ranges from nuclear power systems to kitchen appliances. Hitachi also operates subsidiaries in the wire and cable, metal, and chemical industries.

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Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)

Hitachi Transport (9086) Takeover Deal Imminent

The traditional Nikkei Leak Article is out, suggesting Hitachi will sell 30% for ¥200bn. Historically, Nikkei M&A arithmetic is sometimes off. But...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

Changes to the Topix FFW methodology will result in a turnover of 2.87% & trade of ¥2,285bn from April to June. There is a lot to trade on some...

Brian Freitas