Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.</li><li>Vulnerability to fiscal shortfalls and external financing is rising.</li><li>Policy rates are likely to remain under downward pressure as also the overvalued rupee</li></ul>

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.Vulnerability to fiscal shortfalls and external financing is rising.Policy rates are likely to remain under downward pressure as also the overvalued rupee

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In China bad loan coverage ratios are falling fast, and there is talk that regulators will even lower minimum requirements. No good can come of this.</li><li>OCBC’s recent disclosure is interesting in two respects, where we believe there has been little focus.</li><li>While headline profit growth at HDFC Bank may be wonderful, we are doubtful that the market is aware underlying bad loan growth.</li></ul>

In China bad loan coverage ratios are falling fast, and there is talk that regulators will even lower minimum requirements. No good can come of this.OCBC’s recent disclosure is interesting in two respects, where we believe there has been little focus.While headline profit growth at HDFC Bank may be wonderful, we are doubtful that the market is aware underlying bad loan growth. 

Award-winning Financial Journalist

Ashish Saxena

India's economics will never be like before if a recent stunning disclosure by the country's tax department is to be believed.<div style="text-align: justify;" class="content-highlight">In response to a Right to Information (RTI) appeal filed by an Indian Revenue Service veteran <a href="http://www.thequint.com/india/2016/03/19/even-as-farmers-die-trillions-laundered-as-agricultural-income" target="_blank">Vijay Sharma</a> in May last year, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has revealed that a relatively small group of Indians declared 'Agriculture Income' of almost USD 44.5 trillion between 2010 and 2012.</div>That's right, USD 44.5 trillion! That's more than the combined nominal GDP…

India's economics will never be like before if a recent stunning disclosure by the country's tax department is to be believed.In response to a Right to Information (RTI) appeal filed by an Indian Revenue Service veteran Vijay Sharma in May last year, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has revealed that a relatively small group of Indians declared 'Agriculture Income' of almost USD 44.5 trillion between 2010 and 2012.That's right, USD 44.5 trillion! That's more than the combined nominal GDP…

India's USD 44.5 Trillion 'Agriculture Income' Puzzle: What It Means For The Economy

The trouble for India bank credit is not done. We are not believers in the pristine figures at HDFC Bank. Much of it is due to extravagant write-offs, and perhaps lenient loan classifications. After the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) started its review of loan quality, banks are showing significant bad loans.YES Bank may be more private, more savvy and least government-like than others (and ICICI). But the data coming out is not soothing. Its write-offs rose by 87x in the quarter. Its write-offs in…

The trouble for India bank credit is not done. We are not believers in the pristine figures at HDFC Bank. Much of it is due to extravagant write-offs, and perhaps lenient loan classifications. After the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) started its review of loan quality, banks are showing significant bad loans.YES Bank may be more private, more savvy and least government-like than others (and ICICI). But the data coming out is not soothing. Its write-offs rose by 87x in the quarter. Its write-offs in…

India's YES Bank Increases Write-Offs by 87x

Equity Bottom-Up

We are sure that most people have seen Novak Djokovic play tennis.If so, we all know that even he can not place the ball in the far corner of the court, at the baseline, all the time. There are too many variables, and he is not a robot. All the practice in the world will not change this; sometimes he will miss; sometimes other factors will overshadow his competency.But can a bank hit the shot all the time?

We are sure that most people have seen Novak Djokovic play tennis.If so, we all know that even he can not place the ball in the far corner of the court, at the baseline, all the time. There are too many variables, and he is not a robot. All the practice in the world will not change this; sometimes he will miss; sometimes other factors will overshadow his competency.But can a bank hit the shot all the time?

HDFC Bank's Profit Growth Seems Crafted To A Degree

India

YES BANK Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, trade finance, corporate, and business banking services. YES BANK serves the food and agribusiness, life sciences, healthcare, biotechnology, telecommunications, media, information technology, and infrastructure development industries in India.

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Yes Bank (YES IN)

Marketnomix Country Insights - INDIA

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Vulnerability to fiscal shortfalls and external financing is rising. Policy rates are likely to...

Rajan Govil

Asian Banks – Ruminations

In China bad loan coverage ratios are falling fast, and there is talk that regulators will even lower minimum requirements. No good can come of...

Daniel Tabbush

India's USD 44.5 Trillion 'Agriculture Income' Puzzle: What It Means For The Economy

India's economics will never be like before if a recent stunning disclosure by the country's tax department is to be believed.In response to a...

Ashish Saxena

India's YES Bank Increases Write-Offs by 87x

The trouble for India bank credit is not done. We are not believers in the pristine figures at HDFC Bank. Much of it is due to extravagant...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Bank's Profit Growth Seems Crafted To A Degree

We are sure that most people have seen Novak Djokovic play tennis.If so, we all know that even he can not place the ball in the far corner of the...

Daniel Tabbush

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