Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Maruti reported 1Q results yesterday missing consensus as the company narrowly avoided generating an operating loss. OP was just INR0.78bn and in addition to material cost inflation we pointed to, labour cost was also surprisingly high, illustrating Maruti’s negative sensitivity to inflationary pressures.</p>

Maruti reported 1Q results yesterday missing consensus as the company narrowly avoided generating an operating loss. OP was just INR0.78bn and in addition to material cost inflation we pointed to, labour cost was also surprisingly high, illustrating Maruti’s negative sensitivity to inflationary pressures.

Suzuki – Maruti Weakness Makes Our Predicted Miss Likely

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Capital Markets

Maruti Suzuki India / Equity Capital Markets

<p>In this Insight, we present commentary from our interactions with one of the largest dealers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> , Store Manager of Royal Enfield from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> , Dealership owners of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> and an Electric Vehicle (EV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greaves-cotton-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11664:1" rel="noopener">Greaves Cotton (GRV IN)</a>. We also share anecdotal commentary that we have gathered about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> .</p>
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<h3>About India Channel Insight </h3>
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<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets emerging out of these interactions and have been aiding us to generate interesting trade ideas and have often proven to be reliable sources of qualitative alpha.</p>
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In this Insight, we present commentary from our interactions with one of the largest dealers of Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) , Store Manager of Royal Enfield from Eicher Motors (EIM IN) , Dealership owners of Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) and an Electric Vehicle (EV) of Greaves Cotton (GRV IN). We also share anecdotal commentary that we have gathered about Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) .


About India Channel Insight 



Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets emerging out of these interactions and have been aiding us to generate interesting trade ideas and have often proven to be reliable sources of qualitative alpha.


India Channel Insight | Maruti, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Eicher, Ola Electric

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.</p></div><div><p>Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.</p></div><div></div><div>
<p>We have covered the deal background in our earlier notes:</p>
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<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sona-comstar-pre-ipo-inconsistent-growth-patchy-disclosures" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sona-comstar-has-its-positives-but-we-remain-unconvinced" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced</a></li>
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</div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</p></div>

Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.
We have covered the deal background in our earlier notes:

Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures 
Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced

In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Sona Comstar IPO Trading - Strong Anchors but Tepid Demand

<p>Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.</p><p>Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.</p><p>Sona delivered a steady performance in 2019 with revenue up 16.6% and PAT up 24.1%. However, its revenue fell by 14.5% in FY20, although it still managed to grow its PAT by 4%. It registered a strong bounce bank in FY21 with 28.4% revenue growth but PAT was flat.</p><p>While the company enjoys a long customer relationship, its largest customers haven’t consistently grown their contribution to revenue over the past few years.</p><p>We have covered the deal background in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sona-comstar-pre-ipo-inconsistent-growth-patchy-disclosures" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures. </a></p><p>In this note, we will talk about the recent updates and run the deal through our ECM framework.</p>

Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.Sona delivered a steady performance in 2019 with revenue up 16.6% and PAT up 24.1%. However, its revenue fell by 14.5% in FY20, although it still managed to grow its PAT by 4%. It registered a strong bounce bank in FY21 with 28.4% revenue growth but PAT was flat.While the company enjoys a long customer relationship, its largest customers haven’t consistently grown their contribution to revenue over the past few years.We have covered the deal background in our earlier note, Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures. In this note, we will talk about the recent updates and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced

<h3>In this Insight </h3>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>: Although very early considering the current uncertainty, based on initiation channel feedback, we take a shot at estimating possible trends in wholesale and retail for FY22.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inox-leisure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1999:1" rel="noopener">Inox Leisure (INOL IN)</a>: We expect a ~10% reduction in the number of screens due to this pandemic, however, we do not see any material impact of the same on ATPs (expecting them to remain lower). </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/computer-age-management-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28843:1" rel="noopener">Computer Age Management Services (CAMS IN)</a>: Flows mixed, but digitization tailwind could aid revenue growth. Currently, our channels indicate no material stress in terms of SIP flows. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>: Our channels reiterate the strong growth prospects for edible oil. Tailwinds remain and players like MRCO are likely to benefit with volumes expected to remain buoyant. </p>
<h3>About India Channel Insight</h3>
<div>
<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  </p>
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In this Insight 
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN): Although very early considering the current uncertainty, based on initiation channel feedback, we take a shot at estimating possible trends in wholesale and retail for FY22.
PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) &amp; Inox Leisure (INOL IN): We expect a ~10% reduction in the number of screens due to this pandemic, however, we do not see any material impact of the same on ATPs (expecting them to remain lower). 
Computer Age Management Services (CAMS IN): Flows mixed, but digitization tailwind could aid revenue growth. Currently, our channels indicate no material stress in terms of SIP flows. 
Marico Ltd (MRCO IN): Our channels reiterate the strong growth prospects for edible oil. Tailwinds remain and players like MRCO are likely to benefit with volumes expected to remain buoyant. 
About India Channel Insight

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  


India Channel Insight | Maruti, PVR, Inox, CAMS, Marico

India

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

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Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

Suzuki – Maruti Weakness Makes Our Predicted Miss Likely

Maruti results showed that in addition to the material cost inflation we pointed to, labour cost was also surprisingly high, illustrating the...

Mio Kato

India Channel Insight | Maruti, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Eicher, Ola Electric

In this Insight, we present commentary from our interactions with dealers of Maruti, Hyundai, Royal Enfield. We also present anecdotal commentary...

Pranav Bhavsar

Sona Comstar IPO Trading - Strong Anchors but Tepid Demand

Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.

Sumeet Singh

Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced

Sona Comstar aims to raise around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.

Sumeet Singh

India Channel Insight | Maruti, PVR, Inox, CAMS, Marico

Channel interactions are an integral part of our research process. For this insight, we interact with channels and share our views on the likely...

Pranav Bhavsar

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