Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: Equity Rally Continues SPX +1.5% with all Sectors Up; Tech Surges -&gt;NDX100 +2.2%;  China Banks Cuts Mortgage rates to shore up economy;  BitCoin lease on life w/US Court Ruling</li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen's buying power at 53 year low; Japan's jobless rate ticks up-risk for higher wages; SDF Head says Military Capabilities Inadequate</li>
<li>JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Aims to Dominate India with Manufacturing Expansion. With more locally manufactured products, Fasty will be better able to grow share in India. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: Equity Rally Continues SPX +1.5% with all Sectors Up; Tech Surges -&gt;NDX100 +2.2%;  China Banks Cuts Mortgage rates to shore up economy;  BitCoin lease on life w/US Court Ruling
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen's buying power at 53 year low; Japan's jobless rate ticks up-risk for higher wages; SDF Head says Military Capabilities Inadequate
JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Aims to Dominate India with Manufacturing Expansion. With more locally manufactured products, Fasty will be better able to grow share in India. 


Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX +0.7% with all sectors in the green ahead of expected soft CPI print on Wed; Oil strong with weaker USD; MSFT wins as Activision purchase progresses</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.3; Markets start coalesing around BOJ policy shift; TSE kicks out 48 companies from Prime listing; Big Earnings Beat from Lawson(2651)</li>
<li>NUGGET. Building a global semi-supply chain is a central tenet of Japan's industrial policy. We think focusing on short term cyclical semi-weakness risks missing out on the home runs</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX +0.7% with all sectors in the green ahead of expected soft CPI print on Wed; Oil strong with weaker USD; MSFT wins as Activision purchase progresses
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.3; Markets start coalesing around BOJ policy shift; TSE kicks out 48 companies from Prime listing; Big Earnings Beat from Lawson(2651)
NUGGET. Building a global semi-supply chain is a central tenet of Japan's industrial policy. We think focusing on short term cyclical semi-weakness risks missing out on the home runs


Ohayo Japan|Equities Bid Ahead of CPI Print; NUGGET:China Semi Derisking - The Winner Is…Yes, Japan!

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Closed for Memorial Day; SPX Futs rise on Debt Deal prospects; Republican Right Wing opposition emerging; NVIDIA annc partnerships/new chip release that CEO says is "A Big Deal"</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Likely further follow through to the Upside for Japan stocks on weak yen/debt deal prospects; Softbank share px +8% on ARM new chip rollout</li>
<li>NUGGET.  [Another] Wake-Up Call for Japanese OEMs.  The impact of rapid EV transition is starting with Toyota at the forefront. If this is happening to Toyota NOW, then the rest...</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Closed for Memorial Day; SPX Futs rise on Debt Deal prospects; Republican Right Wing opposition emerging; NVIDIA annc partnerships/new chip release that CEO says is "A Big Deal"
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Likely further follow through to the Upside for Japan stocks on weak yen/debt deal prospects; Softbank share px +8% on ARM new chip rollout
NUGGET.  [Another] Wake-Up Call for Japanese OEMs.  The impact of rapid EV transition is starting with Toyota at the forefront. If this is happening to Toyota NOW, then the rest...


Ohayo Japan |SPX Futs Gain on Memorial Day-Debt Optimism; NUGGET: Disruption Gets Real for JP Autos

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After reviewing Suzuki's EV Strategy we turn Bearish on the outlook and see downside for the share price. </li>
<li>We believe that Street has missed the rising costs associated with the electrification strategy. We see a period of weaker margins. </li>
<li>Suzuki only targets 20% of sales to come from EVs in India, its largest market. It could be viewed as a laggard. </li>
</ul>


After reviewing Suzuki's EV Strategy we turn Bearish on the outlook and see downside for the share price. 
We believe that Street has missed the rising costs associated with the electrification strategy. We see a period of weaker margins. 
Suzuki only targets 20% of sales to come from EVs in India, its largest market. It could be viewed as a laggard. 


Suzuki (7269) | EV Strategy – A Dead End?

Japan

Suzuki Motor Corporation manufactures automobiles, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company has production facilities in USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Hungary.

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Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India

US stocks rally; Tech surges. NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen's buying power at 53 year low; Japan's jobless rate ticks up; SDF Head...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan|Equities Bid Ahead of CPI Print; NUGGET:China Semi Derisking - The Winner Is…Yes, Japan!

SPX bid ahead of CPI as soft landing narrarive dominates; NKY Futures +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.3; Markets start coalesing around BOJ policy shift;...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan |SPX Futs Gain on Memorial Day-Debt Optimism; NUGGET: Disruption Gets Real for JP Autos

US Memorial Holidays. NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Likely further follow through to the Upside for Japan stocks on weak yen/debt deal prospects;...

Mark Chadwick

Suzuki (7269) | EV Strategy – A Dead End?

After reviewing Suzuki's EV Strategy we turn Bearish on the outlook and see downside for the share price. We believe the street has underestimated...

Mark Chadwick

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