Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toyota announced record overseas production in February putting up a data point to suggest supply chain issues are genuinely easing. </li>
<li>March is likely to prove more challenging due to some production stoppages but the trend looks clear. </li>
<li>That it comes at a time when the yen is weak and oil prices encourage hybrid demand is an additional boon for Toyota.</li>
</ul>


Toyota announced record overseas production in February putting up a data point to suggest supply chain issues are genuinely easing. 
March is likely to prove more challenging due to some production stoppages but the trend looks clear. 
That it comes at a time when the yen is weak and oil prices encourage hybrid demand is an additional boon for Toyota.


Toyota – Feb Production Numbers Suggest The Corner Has Been Turned

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research.</li>
<li>This is not the first sale by Nomura and hence, might not come as a complete surprise.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>


Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research.
This is not the first sale by Nomura and hence, might not come as a complete surprise.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Nomura Research Placement - Has Sold Before, Deal Might Be More Reflective on the Parent's Results

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei is now down 9.57% vs. when we first recommended our skew trade (now up 0.40%). </li>
<li>Despite some frustrating idiosyncratic moves which have prevented the skew trade from outperforming more it has mostly held up. </li>
<li>Looking forward, we believe it is worthwhile assessing upside and downside macro risks for the components of the trade.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei is now down 9.57% vs. when we first recommended our skew trade (now up 0.40%). 
Despite some frustrating idiosyncratic moves which have prevented the skew trade from outperforming more it has mostly held up. 
Looking forward, we believe it is worthwhile assessing upside and downside macro risks for the components of the trade.


TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade – Updates Factoring in Ukraine

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li><strong>One of the interesting capital flow changes that is occurring amid the on-going war between Russia and Ukraine is the increasing capital flow to the major global cybersecurity stocks.</strong></li>
<li>The 20 largest IT security stocks listed in the US are up on average 5.5% in February, significantly outperforming S&amp;P500 which was down 3.1% in the same period.</li>
<li>
<strong>Palo Alto Networks (PANW US),</strong> Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US), Fortinet Inc (FTNT US), and Check Point Software Tech (CHKP US) have been clear winners in this period.</li>
</ul>


One of the interesting capital flow changes that is occurring amid the on-going war between Russia and Ukraine is the increasing capital flow to the major global cybersecurity stocks.
The 20 largest IT security stocks listed in the US are up on average 5.5% in February, significantly outperforming S&amp;P500 which was down 3.1% in the same period.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW US), Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US), Fortinet Inc (FTNT US), and Check Point Software Tech (CHKP US) have been clear winners in this period.


The Russia & Ukraine War Forcing Capital to Shift into Cybersecurity Stocks

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Toyota-agrees-to-boost-pay-on-union-s-terms-in-rare-speed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported</a> today that Toyota had already agreed to accept its unions wage hike demands and in full. </li>
<li>This is unusual given typically fair but tough negotiations and Toyota’s penchant for very strict cost control. </li>
<li>Although the news does not appear to be attracting any great attention we believe it is actually quite significant.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported today that Toyota had already agreed to accept its unions wage hike demands and in full. 
This is unusual given typically fair but tough negotiations and Toyota’s penchant for very strict cost control. 
Although the news does not appear to be attracting any great attention we believe it is actually quite significant.


Toyota – Quick Wage Negotiation Agreement Means Something

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Toyota – Feb Production Numbers Suggest The Corner Has Been Turned

Toyota announced record overseas production in February and this comes at a time when the yen is weak and oil prices encourage hybrid demand...

Mio Kato

Nomura Research Placement - Has Sold Before, Deal Might Be More Reflective on the Parent's Results

Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research. This won't be the first selldown by the parent.

Sumeet Singh

TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade – Updates Factoring in Ukraine

The Nikkei is down 9.57% vs. when we initiated our skew trade (now up 0.40%). Despite some frustrating idiosyncratic moves the trade has mostly...

Mio Kato

The Russia & Ukraine War Forcing Capital to Shift into Cybersecurity Stocks

One of the interesting capital flow changes that is occurring amid the on-going war between Russia and Ukraine is the increasing capital flow to...

Douglas Kim

Toyota – Quick Wage Negotiation Agreement Means Something

Toyota accepting its unions wage hike demands in full is unusual and is significant in our view, not just for the auto sector outlook but also for...

Mio Kato

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