Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

On Thursday, April 22, Nidec announced FY Mar-21 results. On Friday, the shares dropped 5.1%. Why? Possible reasons include:<ul>
<li>Nidec founder Shigenobu Nagamori, age 76, will give up the role of  CEO to current president and COO Jun Seki in June. Nagamori will remain Chairman, but his era is drawing to a close and the "Nagamori Premium" may already be evaporating.</li>
<li>FY Mar-21 results were good, but not stellar, and management is guiding for modest growth in FY Mar-22.</li>
<li>Progress is being made with EV motors, robot components and other products, but there is no new growth story. </li>
<li>Management expects EV power trains to become cheaper than internal combustion engine power trains "after 2024." In the meantime, R&amp;D and investment in new capacity are likely to be a drag on margins.</li>
<li>Valuations remain high. Even on what we regard as a reasonably optimistic forecast, with sales exceeding management's ¥2 trillion target in FY Mar-24 and EPS rising by more than 50% by then, the shares are selling at more than 40x earnings.</li>
</ul>On January 27, following 3Q results, we wrote "Take profits." We maintain that view.

On Thursday, April 22, Nidec announced FY Mar-21 results. On Friday, the shares dropped 5.1%. Why? Possible reasons include:
Nidec founder Shigenobu Nagamori, age 76, will give up the role of  CEO to current president and COO Jun Seki in June. Nagamori will remain Chairman, but his era is drawing to a close and the "Nagamori Premium" may already be evaporating.
FY Mar-21 results were good, but not stellar, and management is guiding for modest growth in FY Mar-22.
Progress is being made with EV motors, robot components and other products, but there is no new growth story. 
Management expects EV power trains to become cheaper than internal combustion engine power trains "after 2024." In the meantime, R&amp;D and investment in new capacity are likely to be a drag on margins.
Valuations remain high. Even on what we regard as a reasonably optimistic forecast, with sales exceeding management's ¥2 trillion target in FY Mar-24 and EPS rising by more than 50% by then, the shares are selling at more than 40x earnings.
On January 27, following 3Q results, we wrote "Take profits." We maintain that view.

Nidec (6594 JP): Guidance Probably Conservative, but Still Overvalued

On January 10, we wrote that demand for semiconductor equipment could exceed SEMI's growth forecast for 2021, that Tokyo Electron's guidance for FY Mar-21 was probably conservative, and that Investors in Tokyo Electron (TEL)... should benefit, even if the shares appear to be overbought. (see<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tokyo-electron-8035-jp-semiconductor-shortage-points-to-stronger-year-ahead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46893" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Semiconductor Shortage Points to Stronger Year Ahead </a> ).  Since then, TEL has raised guidance, Intel and TSMC have announced big new capital spending plans, SEMI has raised its forecast of semiconductor equipment demand, and TEL's share price has risen by 24%. How much more upside is there?The shares are now selling at 34x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-21 and 31x our estimate for FY Mar-22. These multiples are not high compared with those of other first-rate Japanese  precision manufacturing companies, but they are double what they were two or three years ago. It is tempting to say that valuations are extended in what remains a cyclical industry, but the greater risk to earnings growth, in our estimation, is high and rising depreciation and R&amp;D expenses as the company expands capacity and develops technology for the 2 nanometer node and beyond (See <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/screen-holdings-7735-jp-aiming-at-2nm-process-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49767" rel="noopener">Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Aiming at 2nm Process Technology</a> ).

On January 10, we wrote that demand for semiconductor equipment could exceed SEMI's growth forecast for 2021, that Tokyo Electron's guidance for FY Mar-21 was probably conservative, and that Investors in Tokyo Electron (TEL)... should benefit, even if the shares appear to be overbought. (seeTokyo Electron (8035 JP): Semiconductor Shortage Points to Stronger Year Ahead  ).  Since then, TEL has raised guidance, Intel and TSMC have announced big new capital spending plans, SEMI has raised its forecast of semiconductor equipment demand, and TEL's share price has risen by 24%. How much more upside is there?The shares are now selling at 34x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-21 and 31x our estimate for FY Mar-22. These multiples are not high compared with those of other first-rate Japanese  precision manufacturing companies, but they are double what they were two or three years ago. It is tempting to say that valuations are extended in what remains a cyclical industry, but the greater risk to earnings growth, in our estimation, is high and rising depreciation and R&amp;D expenses as the company expands capacity and develops technology for the 2 nanometer node and beyond (See Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Aiming at 2nm Process Technology ).

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Getting Ahead of Itself

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Lexus announced its new LF-Z EV concept yesterday, laying out broad plans for its electrification strategy and future development outlook. The brand has seen less news flow than the main Toyota brand in terms of technological progress but this appears to now be changing. This has implications for a variety of suppliers.

Lexus announced its new LF-Z EV concept yesterday, laying out broad plans for its electrification strategy and future development outlook. The brand has seen less news flow than the main Toyota brand in terms of technological progress but this appears to now be changing. This has implications for a variety of suppliers.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• THE POST-COVID ROTATION •<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/288/original/2021-02-28_08-38-14.png?1614469105" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191288"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/290/original/2021-02-28_08-57-32.png?1614470265" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191290"></figure></section></section><section class="figure"><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section>THE 2021 ROTATION ACCELERATES - As we noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-the-post-covid-rotation-from-growth-to-value-begins-02-05-results-revisions-update" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47877" rel="noopener">The Post-COVID Rotation from Growth to Value Begins</a>, the Japanese equity market has been led by overvalued and overvalued for most of the last year overbought high-quality growth companies in the Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Internet, and Healthcare Sectors. These companies were deemed to be 'COVID-resistant' and were consistently well-bid regardless of price. The stocks leading this 'charge' were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO (3064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, while the only cyclical Sector that has seen a major recovery was Energy. Meanwhile, shares in domestically-orientated Sectors and companies heavily exposed to COVID-related delines in business activity languished despite valuations reaching ten or twenty-year lows. PEAKED? - Over the last twenty trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> breached 30,000, many of these market leaders have seen a significant correction, while the market has rotated into domestic, cyclical, and financial Sectors - as illustrated by our Sector Relative Price Score timelines in the chart above. In the DETAIL Section below, we will review the current market technicals after Friday's 4% N225 decline and look at the leading stocks on both 'sides' of this rotation trade.

• THE POST-COVID ROTATION • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsTHE 2021 ROTATION ACCELERATES - As we noted in The Post-COVID Rotation from Growth to Value Begins, the Japanese equity market has been led by overvalued and overvalued for most of the last year overbought high-quality growth companies in the Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Internet, and Healthcare Sectors. These companies were deemed to be 'COVID-resistant' and were consistently well-bid regardless of price. The stocks leading this 'charge' were M3 (2413 JP),Lasertec (6920 JP), MonotaRO (3064 JP), Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP), and Nidec (6594 JP), while the only cyclical Sector that has seen a major recovery was Energy. Meanwhile, shares in domestically-orientated Sectors and companies heavily exposed to COVID-related delines in business activity languished despite valuations reaching ten or twenty-year lows. PEAKED? - Over the last twenty trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99. The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) breached 30,000, many of these market leaders have seen a significant correction, while the market has rotated into domestic, cyclical, and financial Sectors - as illustrated by our Sector Relative Price Score timelines in the chart above. In the DETAIL Section below, we will review the current market technicals after Friday's 4% N225 decline and look at the leading stocks on both 'sides' of this rotation trade.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Post-COVID Rotation Accelerates

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

Nidec (6594 JP): Guidance Probably Conservative, but Still Overvalued

Sales and profits continue to grow, but not fast enough to justify current valuations. The build-out of the EV motor business is a drag on margins...

Scott Foster

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Getting Ahead of Itself

The shared are up 33% so far this year, discounting record semiconductor capital spending and an upward revision to guidance. Peak earnings...

Scott Foster

Toyota – Electrifying Lexus

Lexus has seen less EV related news flow than the main Toyota brand in terms of technological progress but this appears to now be changing and has...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Post-COVID Rotation Accelerates

Over the last 20 trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99, many market leaders have seen a significant correction, and there has been a...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

Major global indexes continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend...

Vermilion Research

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