Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Gains (barely) after a brutal week; Durable Goods Ex-Transport point to economic resilience;  Beta/Growth&gt; Value as Cyclicals rebound; JPM Quant Sees $50bn Selling if SPX breeches 3940</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 136.2; BOJ Gov Designate Ueda says no change to Easing for now; Japan Post Massive X-Share $9bn sale of Sub shares; Auto Upgrades</li>
<li>NUGGETS NUGGET. Nidec's E-Axle Future may rest with the Europeans, not the Chinese !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Gains (barely) after a brutal week; Durable Goods Ex-Transport point to economic resilience;  Beta/Growth&gt; Value as Cyclicals rebound; JPM Quant Sees $50bn Selling if SPX breeches 3940
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 136.2; BOJ Gov Designate Ueda says no change to Easing for now; Japan Post Massive X-Share $9bn sale of Sub shares; Auto Upgrades
NUGGETS NUGGET. Nidec's E-Axle Future may rest with the Europeans, not the Chinese !


Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds After Brutal Week; Solid Durable Goods; Japan Post $9bn X-Share Unwind

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Caps another winning week - now 4/5 for the year;  Blow out Jobs report but Wages slowing - Goldilocks ? Powell speaks this week as DIS, UBER report.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor;  Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel rates;  Earnings this week - Watch Softbank</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. NO ROCKING OF THE BOAT - BOJ Deputy Amamiya is set to take the mantle of leadership at the BOJ.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Caps another winning week - now 4/5 for the year;  Blow out Jobs report but Wages slowing - Goldilocks ? Powell speaks this week as DIS, UBER report.
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor;  Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel rates;  Earnings this week - Watch Softbank
DAILY NUGGETS. NO ROCKING OF THE BOAT - BOJ Deputy Amamiya is set to take the mantle of leadership at the BOJ.


Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ's Amamiya "THE ONE" ?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai's upcoming results date hasn't yet been publicly announced, but last year it was 16 March.</li>
<li>Gross margin could come in well below consensus, and net profit could be minimal for 4Q22E. Look for reiteration of its longer-term margin target from management.</li>
<li>We remain structurally bullish on Hon Hai and see it as positioned favorably relative to U.S. China semiconductor restrictions. Our TP for Hon Hai is $155, over 50% above today.</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai's upcoming results date hasn't yet been publicly announced, but last year it was 16 March.
Gross margin could come in well below consensus, and net profit could be minimal for 4Q22E. Look for reiteration of its longer-term margin target from management.
We remain structurally bullish on Hon Hai and see it as positioned favorably relative to U.S. China semiconductor restrictions. Our TP for Hon Hai is $155, over 50% above today.


Hon Hai 4Q22 Results Preview: Brace for a Weak Print, But EV Structural Driver Intact

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Rallies as Earnings take centre stage; Telsa rips as Musk see 2m in Sales; Auto Semis in Play as STMicro beats - lifts sector; Seagate at turning point</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY Steady at 130.22; Baton gets passed at Toyota; Double D/G of Shippers downgrade to Sell ; EARNINGS TODAY: All about Fanuc</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Toyota - End of an Era, and the start of another. We expect new CEO Sato to accelerate the EV shift !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Rallies as Earnings take centre stage; Telsa rips as Musk see 2m in Sales; Auto Semis in Play as STMicro beats - lifts sector; Seagate at turning point
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY Steady at 130.22; Baton gets passed at Toyota; Double D/G of Shippers downgrade to Sell ; EARNINGS TODAY: All about Fanuc
DAILY NUGGET. Toyota - End of an Era, and the start of another. We expect new CEO Sato to accelerate the EV shift !


Good Morning Japan |Earnings Bonanaza! ; Tesla Rips; AutoSemis in Play;Toyoda @Toyota Passes Baton

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Nidec is headed into the red due to market disruption in China, restructuring charges and stagflation.</li>
<li>The first two of these factors should be temporary, but the third points to longer term pressure on margins. Competition in EV motors is another problem that won't go away.</li>
<li>In a weak economy characterized by stagflation, it is too early to turn bullish.</li>
</ul>


Nidec is headed into the red due to market disruption in China, restructuring charges and stagflation.
The first two of these factors should be temporary, but the third points to longer term pressure on margins. Competition in EV motors is another problem that won't go away.
In a weak economy characterized by stagflation, it is too early to turn bullish.


Nidec (6594): A V-Shaped Recovery Cannot Be Taken for Granted

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ's Amamiya "THE ONE" ?

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor; Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel...

Mark Chadwick

Hon Hai 4Q22 Results Preview: Brace for a Weak Print, But EV Structural Driver Intact

We remain structurally bullish on Hon Hai and see it as positioned favorably relative to U.S. China semiconductor restrictions. Our TP for Hon Hai...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Good Morning Japan |Earnings Bonanaza! ; Tesla Rips; AutoSemis in Play;Toyoda @Toyota Passes Baton

JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; Baton gets passed at Toyota; Double D/G of Shippers downgrade to Sell ; EARNINGS TODAY: All about Fanuc.

Mark Chadwick

Nidec (6594): A V-Shaped Recovery Cannot Be Taken for Granted

It is too early to turn bullish on Nidec. The company will probably return to profit after restructuring, but stagflation and competition in EV...

Scott Foster

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Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds After Brutal Week; Solid Durable Goods; Japan Post $9bn X-Share Unwind

US stocks hold on to gains after last week's sell off; In Japan, BOJ Gov Designate Ueda says no change to Easing for now; Japan Post Massive X...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ's Amamiya "THE ONE" ?

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor; Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel...

Mark Chadwick

Hon Hai 4Q22 Results Preview: Brace for a Weak Print, But EV Structural Driver Intact

We remain structurally bullish on Hon Hai and see it as positioned favorably relative to U.S. China semiconductor restrictions. Our TP for Hon Hai...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Good Morning Japan |Earnings Bonanaza! ; Tesla Rips; AutoSemis in Play;Toyoda @Toyota Passes Baton

JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; Baton gets passed at Toyota; Double D/G of Shippers downgrade to Sell ; EARNINGS TODAY: All about Fanuc.

Mark Chadwick

Nidec (6594): A V-Shaped Recovery Cannot Be Taken for Granted

It is too early to turn bullish on Nidec. The company will probably return to profit after restructuring, but stagflation and competition in EV...

Scott Foster