Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. </li>
<li>On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.</li>
<li>There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.</li>
</ul>


There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. 
On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.
There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.


<ul>
<li>On Friday, a Bloomberg article suggested <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renault-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21536:1" rel="noopener">Renault SA (RNO FP)</a> is considering selling some of its 43% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> to help fund its efforts in EVs.</li>
<li>Sources were "people familiar with the matter." Since 2018, Bloomberg and Les Echos have been the outlets which do "scoops" on the Renault/Nissan relationship, but they are not always right.</li>
<li>However, it raises some interesting questions and possibilities. And given the prices, it makes the decision somewhat uncomfortable for both. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, a Bloomberg article suggested Renault SA (RNO FP) is considering selling some of its 43% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to help fund its efforts in EVs.
Sources were "people familiar with the matter." Since 2018, Bloomberg and Les Echos have been the outlets which do "scoops" on the Renault/Nissan relationship, but they are not always right.
However, it raises some interesting questions and possibilities. And given the prices, it makes the decision somewhat uncomfortable for both. 


Renault (RNO FP) To Sell Nissan (7201 JP) Shares? Not Yet, and Not Yet Positive Nissan.

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Honda’s Briefing on its Automobile Electrification Business yesterday laid out a reasonably aggressive EV rollout plan emphasising some existing partnerships. </li>
<li>It also highlighted that they would procure batteries domestically from Envision AESC. </li>
<li>That is another move that takes Honda a step closer to Nissan’s supply chain and has us pondering a potential merger/partnership once again.</li>
</ul>


Honda’s Briefing on its Automobile Electrification Business yesterday laid out a reasonably aggressive EV rollout plan emphasising some existing partnerships. 
It also highlighted that they would procure batteries domestically from Envision AESC. 
That is another move that takes Honda a step closer to Nissan’s supply chain and has us pondering a potential merger/partnership once again.


Honda – EV Briefing Raises Some Interesting Questions

<ul>
<li>Nissan generated total revenue of ¥2,207bn (+13.8% QoQ, -0.8% YoY) and OP of ¥52.2bn in 3QFY22. </li>
<li>The reported revenue was 0.9% lower than consensus estimates, while operating profit was ¥15bn higher. </li>
<li>The company revised revenue guidance to ¥8,710bn (-1.0%) while OP was increased by ¥30bn to ¥210bn (+16.7%) but our start of year estimate of ¥250bn OP is on the cards.</li>
</ul>


Nissan generated total revenue of ¥2,207bn (+13.8% QoQ, -0.8% YoY) and OP of ¥52.2bn in 3QFY22. 
The reported revenue was 0.9% lower than consensus estimates, while operating profit was ¥15bn higher. 
The company revised revenue guidance to ¥8,710bn (-1.0%) while OP was increased by ¥30bn to ¥210bn (+16.7%) but our start of year estimate of ¥250bn OP is on the cards.


Nissan – Limited Upside Till Next FY Starts to Be Priced In

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nippon Prologis Reit / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Nippon Prologis Reit (3283 JP) is looking to raise US$265m in its global follow-on offering to acquire three logistics properties</li>
<li>We have covered a number of past placement for the stock, most of which have done well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Nippon Prologis Reit (3283 JP) is looking to raise US$265m in its global follow-on offering to acquire three logistics properties
We have covered a number of past placement for the stock, most of which have done well.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Nippon Prologis REIT Placement - Small Deal, Marginal Accretion. Past Deals Have Done Well

Japan

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

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Nissan Motor (7201 JP)

TOPIX April Rebalance - Two Days To Go

The TOPIX April-June rebalance for FFW review and Liquidity Factor adjustment sees its first tranche of trades executed Wednesday at the close.

Travis Lundy

Renault (RNO FP) To Sell Nissan (7201 JP) Shares? Not Yet, and Not Yet Positive Nissan.

On Friday, the French state announced an arrest warrant for Carlos Ghosn, and the Q1 call was full of vague talk of Alliance changes not yet...

Travis Lundy

Honda – EV Briefing Raises Some Interesting Questions

Honda’s Briefing on its Automobile Electrification Business yesterday laid out an aggressive EV rollout plan emphasising some existing partnerships...

Mio Kato

Nissan – Limited Upside Till Next FY Starts to Be Priced In

Nissan revised revenue guidance to ¥8,710bn (-1.0%) while OP was increased by ¥30bn to ¥210bn (+16.7%) but our start of year estimate of ¥250bn OP...

Mio Kato

Nippon Prologis REIT Placement - Small Deal, Marginal Accretion. Past Deals Have Done Well

Nippon Prologis Reit (3283 JP) is looking to raise US$265m in its global follow-on offering to acquire three logistics properties.

Sumeet Singh

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