Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The KRX announced the 100 constituents of the much-awaited Korea Value-Up Index on 24 September. There were hits and misses but broad consensus was that the index is a miss.</li>
<li>Following market feedback, the KRX could conduct a special rebalance of the index in December. But this could be after the launch of ETFs tracking the index.</li>
<li>With a big overlap and similar characteristics as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 Index</a>, there could be limited assets benchmarked to the Korea Value-Up Index in the short-term.</li>
</ul>


The KRX announced the 100 constituents of the much-awaited Korea Value-Up Index on 24 September. There were hits and misses but broad consensus was that the index is a miss.
Following market feedback, the KRX could conduct a special rebalance of the index in December. But this could be after the launch of ETFs tracking the index.
With a big overlap and similar characteristics as the KOSPI 200 Index, there could be limited assets benchmarked to the Korea Value-Up Index in the short-term.


Korea Value-Up Index: Estimated Passive Flows as ETF Launches Coming

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Shinhan Financial announced that it plans to increase shareholder return ratio to 50%, improve ROE to 10%, and reduce outstanding shares by 50 million+ by 2027.</li>
<li>Shinhan Financial Group's new, outstanding shareholder return policy has been one of the most impressive since the roll-out of the Corporate Value Up program in Korea a few weeks ago.</li>
<li>The improved corporate governance policy is likely to lead to Shinhan Financial Group outperforming other financial stocks in Korea and KOSPI overall in the next 6-12 months. </li>
</ul>


Shinhan Financial announced that it plans to increase shareholder return ratio to 50%, improve ROE to 10%, and reduce outstanding shares by 50 million+ by 2027.
Shinhan Financial Group's new, outstanding shareholder return policy has been one of the most impressive since the roll-out of the Corporate Value Up program in Korea a few weeks ago.
The improved corporate governance policy is likely to lead to Shinhan Financial Group outperforming other financial stocks in Korea and KOSPI overall in the next 6-12 months. 


Shinhan Financial: Shareholder Return Ratio of 50% to Boost Corporate Value

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 26 March, it was announced that BNP Paribas plans to sell its 3.6% stake in Shinhan Financial in a block deal sale 18.7 million shares). </li>
<li>The block deal sale is estimated to be about 900 billion won, which would represent one of the largest block deal sales in Korea in the past several years.</li>
<li>We have a Negative view on the Shinhan Financial Group block deal and we would not subscribe to it due to three major reasons. </li>
</ul>


After the market close on 26 March, it was announced that BNP Paribas plans to sell its 3.6% stake in Shinhan Financial in a block deal sale 18.7 million shares). 
The block deal sale is estimated to be about 900 billion won, which would represent one of the largest block deal sales in Korea in the past several years.
We have a Negative view on the Shinhan Financial Group block deal and we would not subscribe to it due to three major reasons. 


Block Deal Sale of 3.6% Stake in Shinhan Financial by BNP Paribas

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shinhan Financial / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bnp-paribas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:525:1" rel="noopener">BNP Paribas (BNP FP)</a> is looking to raise around US$680m via selling 3.5% of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinhan-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6978:1" rel="noopener">Shinhan Financial (055550 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>This will be the fourth selldown for the stock since the start of the year. It will also be the largest one of the lot, so far.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



BNP Paribas (BNP FP) is looking to raise around US$680m via selling 3.5% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).
This will be the fourth selldown for the stock since the start of the year. It will also be the largest one of the lot, so far.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Shinhan Financial Group Placement - Another Selldown, Momentum Is Strong but Deal Is Large

South Korea

Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd., a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services.  The company's main businesses include banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management to individuals, businesses, and other financial institutions.

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Shinhan Financial (055550 KS)

Korea Value-Up Index: Estimated Passive Flows as ETF Launches Coming

The Korea Value-Up Index is very similar to the KOSPI200 Index. That could mean not a lot of passive assets tracking the index. Stocks with the...

Brian Freitas

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea resumes on 31 March. Shorts have plummeted and will increase. Foreign investors have been sellers for the last 8 months....

Brian Freitas

Shinhan Financial: Shareholder Return Ratio of 50% to Boost Corporate Value

Shinhan Financial announced that it plans to increase shareholder return ratio to 50%, improve ROE to 10%, and reduce outstanding shares by 50...

Douglas Kim

Block Deal Sale of 3.6% Stake in Shinhan Financial by BNP Paribas

After the market close on 26 March, it was announced that BNP Paribas plans to sell its 3.6% stake in Shinhan Financial in a block deal sale 18.7...

Douglas Kim

Shinhan Financial Group Placement - Another Selldown, Momentum Is Strong but Deal Is Large

BNP Paribas (BNP FP) is looking to raise around US$680m via selling 3.5% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS). In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

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