Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC has been a significant outperformer versus Samsung Electronics.   How can TSMC continue this performance in the near future?   We take a look at their customer profiles as well what has been priced in and has not for the next few years.

TSMC has been a significant outperformer versus Samsung Electronics.   How can TSMC continue this performance in the near future?   We take a look at their customer profiles as well what has been priced in and has not for the next few years. 

TSMC Vs. Samsung.  Where's the Net Add Upside?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Spotify continues to generate mid-teens revenue growth, zero operating leverage, declining pricing power, and decent subscriber growth. We are still waiting for an explanation of why paying out $100s of millions of dollars for minimally profitable (assuming it was disclosed) podcasting content translated to a $25B increase in market cap since April.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Spotify continues to generate mid-teens revenue growth, zero operating leverage, declining pricing power, and decent subscriber growth. We are still waiting for an explanation of why paying out $100s of millions of dollars for minimally profitable (assuming it was disclosed) podcasting content translated to a $25B increase in market cap since April.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Strong APT FY 1Q21 Results: Afterpay released a strong quarterly update with momentum across the entire business with further integrations with large retailer contracts ahead of the holiday shopping season. GMV of AUD 4.1 bn during the quarter; active customers are 11.2 mn, up from 9.9m at end of June – ahead of our expectations; and Australia in-store sales are recovering, representing close to 20% of total sales;*Earning Their Stripe: Afterpay had also announced that it had entered into a strategic partnership with Stripe Payments,  a major global payments company with over 100,000 SMBs, to allow its users to offer Afterpay their customers which should allow it to expand its reach among online shoppers; and  *Sprinkling More Fairy Dust: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] stake. In addition to a superb return on investment of 358% over the past five months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology buy-now, pay later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*Strong APT FY 1Q21 Results: Afterpay released a strong quarterly update with momentum across the entire business with further integrations with large retailer contracts ahead of the holiday shopping season. GMV of AUD 4.1 bn during the quarter; active customers are 11.2 mn, up from 9.9m at end of June – ahead of our expectations; and Australia in-store sales are recovering, representing close to 20% of total sales;*Earning Their Stripe: Afterpay had also announced that it had entered into a strategic partnership with Stripe Payments,  a major global payments company with over 100,000 SMBs, to allow its users to offer Afterpay their customers which should allow it to expand its reach among online shoppers; and  *Sprinkling More Fairy Dust: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] stake. In addition to a superb return on investment of 358% over the past five months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology buy-now, pay later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

Tencent Holdings - It Keeps Getting Better

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> is currently trading at more than 2 standard deviations above its 5yr- and 10yr historical average PE range.  A premium makes sense given a significant improvement in their competitive positioning and being in the early stages of a cyclical upswing given the advent of 5G, which should also accelerate the adoption of Internet-of-Things applications. 
This raises the question as to what a fair valuation multiple for TSMC should be. In this insight I make a comparative valuation by looking at, arguably, the two most important companies in TSMC’s value chain, both dominant in their competitive environments, namely TSMC’s largest supplier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21097:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)</a> and their largest customer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a>. 
My analysis focuses on the companies’ competitive positioning, geographic exposure, customer concentration, growth profile and outlook, cash flow generation, balance sheets, capital allocation and returns on invested capital to assess what a fair relative valuation might look like.

TSMC (2330 TT) is currently trading at more than 2 standard deviations above its 5yr- and 10yr historical average PE range.  A premium makes sense given a significant improvement in their competitive positioning and being in the early stages of a cyclical upswing given the advent of 5G, which should also accelerate the adoption of Internet-of-Things applications. 
This raises the question as to what a fair valuation multiple for TSMC should be. In this insight I make a comparative valuation by looking at, arguably, the two most important companies in TSMC’s value chain, both dominant in their competitive environments, namely TSMC’s largest supplier ASML Holding NV (ASML NA) and their largest customer Apple Inc (AAPL US). 
My analysis focuses on the companies’ competitive positioning, geographic exposure, customer concentration, growth profile and outlook, cash flow generation, balance sheets, capital allocation and returns on invested capital to assess what a fair relative valuation might look like.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> takes the lead once again, becoming the market leader of the booming Indian smartphone industry. On an uptake, the third quarter appears to be a game changer for the industry - pushing it's performance to new heights, finally getting the sector back to normalcy.</li>
<li>Food aggregators <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN)</a> and Swiggy have seen the difficult pandemic times turn into a green shoot for them. With Tier 2 cities booming with demand, they now focus on a pan India approach adding more and more restaurant partners under their umbrella every month.</li>
<li>Burger King India Ltd. is all geared up to come out with an IPO in India to raise INR 5.42 billion through an issue of 60 million shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> owned Flipkart to  buy a 7.8% stake in Aditya Birla Fashion. The purchase will not only help the company cut down its debt, but also help it have a better grounding whilst competing with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> .</li>
</ul>

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.


Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) takes the lead once again, becoming the market leader of the booming Indian smartphone industry. On an uptake, the third quarter appears to be a game changer for the industry - pushing it's performance to new heights, finally getting the sector back to normalcy.
Food aggregators Zomato (ZOM IN) and Swiggy have seen the difficult pandemic times turn into a green shoot for them. With Tier 2 cities booming with demand, they now focus on a pan India approach adding more and more restaurant partners under their umbrella every month.
Burger King India Ltd. is all geared up to come out with an IPO in India to raise INR 5.42 billion through an issue of 60 million shares.

Walmart (WMT US) owned Flipkart to  buy a 7.8% stake in Aditya Birla Fashion. The purchase will not only help the company cut down its debt, but also help it have a better grounding whilst competing with Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Reliance Industries (RIL IN) .


India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Xiaomi, Zomato, Swiggy, BurgerKing and Flipkart

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

TSMC Vs. Samsung. Where's the Net Add Upside?

Why TSMC is still a buy as we look into 2022. Does Samsung have the scale to keep Qualcomm in their grasp and if not what is the next catalyst for...

Ken S. Kim

Spotify 3Q20: We Still Can't Hear You

Spotify gave us another quarter of declining pricing power, middle of the road revenue growth and no disclosures about how podcasting benefits the...

Aaron Gabin

Tencent Holdings - It Keeps Getting Better

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent Keeps hitting The Ball Out of The Park With Afterpay, Who Reported Solid FY 1Q21 Results and Another Partnership

Thomas J. Monaco

TSMC: A Comparative Valuation

In this insight, I make a comparative valuation by looking at two value-chain companies, both dominant in their own right, namely TSMC’s largest...

Wium Malan, CFA

India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Xiaomi, Zomato, Swiggy, BurgerKing and Flipkart

Our weekly monitor this week highlights Xiaomi's robust performance in India, Strategies deployed by food aggregators to gain market share. Burger...

Pranav Bhavsar

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