Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Yongcheng Coal Default: According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and*Watch Your Banks: The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.

*Yongcheng Coal Default: According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and*Watch Your Banks: The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Risk markets rallied on expectations that a meaningful economic restart will be brought forward following news of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer's (PFE US)</a> preliminary success rate of 90% in its Coronavirus vaccine trials. Combined with a Goldilocks election outcome whereby President Trump loses the election, but Joe Biden does not win a mandate, Caa rated corporates continued to tighten by more than the Asia High Yield (HY) index and other components of the US HY complex.Following two days of initial euphoria, markets consolidated on news of increased Coronavirus contagion. The growing footprint of Coronavirus related, pre-Christmas, restrictions across Europe and the US may be a headwind for economic growth over the near term.In the rate markets, a sharp jump in US yields early in the week retraced as the week progressed and attracted end-user buying, particularly in Asia. Japanese investors were reported to have been strong buyers of 7- to 10-year Treasuries. One of the developing risks at this point is that the reflation trade does not resurface while federal stimulus is constrained, and near-term economic prospects reduce. A tepid increase in yields could limit the effectiveness of any fresh Fed action. Against this background, almost all Asia-headquartered bonds tightened relative to their benchmark spreads as vaccine progress and US Treasury curve steepening increased prospects for higher net interest margins. Amongst Additional Tier 1 bonds, Thai-headquartered banks led advances as the Bank of Thailand lifted a dividend ban and stated that the financial institutions have sufficient capital and loan-loss provisions to withstand the impact of COVID-19. This sounds like cheer-leading and we are tempted to fade this rally. Concurrently, Turkish HY Senior Unsecured bank bonds materially outperformed their global peers in anticipation of more orthodox monetary and economic policies. Given the starting point for a potential Turkish bank bond rally, we may see higher returns from Turkish- as opposed to Thai-bank bonds.In the debt capital markets, over US$30 billion was raised by financial institutions in USD, Euros and Sterling across the credit continuum. When we noted last week that issuers were likely to bring 2021 issuance needs forward, we did not anticipate a flood like this. In what may have been the busiest bank bond issuance week of the year, the amount issued was almost one-half the amount brought in the prior eight weeks.Market Outlook: Over the near term, positive vaccine news combined with a goldilocks US election outcome lowers the likelihood of excessive US federal stimulus. This should cap additional upward pressure on US Treasury yields until vision increases on likely H2 ’21 US economic growth, post-vaccine distribution. Reflation remains on hold. This could limit US dollar weakness and limit positive impacts on reflationary beneficiaries such as bank valuations and Emerging Markets (EM) assets. Over the medium term, a less expansionary US fiscal policy should reduce upward pressure on U.S. rates and is likely to support yield-seeking, including EM fixed income securities over time.

Risk markets rallied on expectations that a meaningful economic restart will be brought forward following news of Pfizer's (PFE US) preliminary success rate of 90% in its Coronavirus vaccine trials. Combined with a Goldilocks election outcome whereby President Trump loses the election, but Joe Biden does not win a mandate, Caa rated corporates continued to tighten by more than the Asia High Yield (HY) index and other components of the US HY complex.Following two days of initial euphoria, markets consolidated on news of increased Coronavirus contagion. The growing footprint of Coronavirus related, pre-Christmas, restrictions across Europe and the US may be a headwind for economic growth over the near term.In the rate markets, a sharp jump in US yields early in the week retraced as the week progressed and attracted end-user buying, particularly in Asia. Japanese investors were reported to have been strong buyers of 7- to 10-year Treasuries. One of the developing risks at this point is that the reflation trade does not resurface while federal stimulus is constrained, and near-term economic prospects reduce. A tepid increase in yields could limit the effectiveness of any fresh Fed action. Against this background, almost all Asia-headquartered bonds tightened relative to their benchmark spreads as vaccine progress and US Treasury curve steepening increased prospects for higher net interest margins. Amongst Additional Tier 1 bonds, Thai-headquartered banks led advances as the Bank of Thailand lifted a dividend ban and stated that the financial institutions have sufficient capital and loan-loss provisions to withstand the impact of COVID-19. This sounds like cheer-leading and we are tempted to fade this rally. Concurrently, Turkish HY Senior Unsecured bank bonds materially outperformed their global peers in anticipation of more orthodox monetary and economic policies. Given the starting point for a potential Turkish bank bond rally, we may see higher returns from Turkish- as opposed to Thai-bank bonds.In the debt capital markets, over US$30 billion was raised by financial institutions in USD, Euros and Sterling across the credit continuum. When we noted last week that issuers were likely to bring 2021 issuance needs forward, we did not anticipate a flood like this. In what may have been the busiest bank bond issuance week of the year, the amount issued was almost one-half the amount brought in the prior eight weeks.Market Outlook: Over the near term, positive vaccine news combined with a goldilocks US election outcome lowers the likelihood of excessive US federal stimulus. This should cap additional upward pressure on US Treasury yields until vision increases on likely H2 ’21 US economic growth, post-vaccine distribution. Reflation remains on hold. This could limit US dollar weakness and limit positive impacts on reflationary beneficiaries such as bank valuations and Emerging Markets (EM) assets. Over the medium term, a less expansionary US fiscal policy should reduce upward pressure on U.S. rates and is likely to support yield-seeking, including EM fixed income securities over time.

Bank Credit Weekly: Vaccine Rally, Then Consolidation, Drives Outperformance & Turkey Vs Thai Banks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> almost raised US$35bn in the largest IPO in history. While the IPO may eventually proceed, we are unsure of the valuations the company could demand the next time around.Following the suspension of listing on the STAR Market by the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a 'major event', <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> announced the suspension of the H-share listing too. The company also said that the refund of the application monies will be made as soon as possible to Hong Kong retail investors.This 'major event' will have knock-on implications for a host of other trades/strategies as well. In this Insight, we take a look at some of them.

Ant Group (6688 HK) almost raised US$35bn in the largest IPO in history. While the IPO may eventually proceed, we are unsure of the valuations the company could demand the next time around.Following the suspension of listing on the STAR Market by the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a 'major event', Ant Group (6688 HK) announced the suspension of the H-share listing too. The company also said that the refund of the application monies will be made as soon as possible to Hong Kong retail investors.This 'major event' will have knock-on implications for a host of other trades/strategies as well. In this Insight, we take a look at some of them.

Equity Bottom-Up

*Don’t Be Misled By Better Numbers: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) [ICBC] reported stronger 3Q20 results than 2Q20, coming in at CNY 80.3 bn - increasing CNY 15.6 bn (24.1%) linked quarter. The linked quarter Improvement is largely attributed to three factors: a) net interest income improvement of CNY 4.0 bn (2.6%) on both a 1 bp NIM improvement to 1.92%, and 2.6% loan growth; b) a CNY 11.7 bn (17.7%) decline in loss provisioning despite marked credit weakness; and c) a 700 bp decline in ICBC’s tax rate to 15.2%; and *Credit Risk Rising: As ICBC is the benchmark name to which all mainland Chinese banks are measured, an increase of such magnitude is more than alarming – and intimates mainland Chinese bank credit risk is moving in oppositive directions to their counterparts in India. When one considers the current break in credit quality reserves would appear to be incredibly light – in the neighborhood of CNY 419 bn which amounts to over a year of pre-tax results at ICBC.

*Don’t Be Misled By Better Numbers: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) [ICBC] reported stronger 3Q20 results than 2Q20, coming in at CNY 80.3 bn - increasing CNY 15.6 bn (24.1%) linked quarter. The linked quarter Improvement is largely attributed to three factors: a) net interest income improvement of CNY 4.0 bn (2.6%) on both a 1 bp NIM improvement to 1.92%, and 2.6% loan growth; b) a CNY 11.7 bn (17.7%) decline in loss provisioning despite marked credit weakness; and c) a 700 bp decline in ICBC’s tax rate to 15.2%; and *Credit Risk Rising: As ICBC is the benchmark name to which all mainland Chinese banks are measured, an increase of such magnitude is more than alarming – and intimates mainland Chinese bank credit risk is moving in oppositive directions to their counterparts in India. When one considers the current break in credit quality reserves would appear to be incredibly light – in the neighborhood of CNY 419 bn which amounts to over a year of pre-tax results at ICBC.      

ICBC – Be Very Wary Of Worsening Credit

Asia’s Additional Tier 1 bonds underperformed as investors shifted into High Yield and X-over rated Senior Unsecured notes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">China Evergrande Group's (3333 HK)</a> attempts to restore investor confidence disappointed and negatively impacted risk sentiment. China’s US$6 billion in issuance also likely absorbed excess US$ liquidity, despite the low yields on offer.   US high yield markets continued to outperform Asia’s, and the relative outperformance of the US versus Asia resulted in continued high yield index spread decompression. Asia’s recent index widening appears to be Evergrande driven and a reduction in this company’s financial distress could have a materially positive impact on Asia’s HY index.In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening paused as investors digested negative stimulus, vaccine, and Covid-19 news in Europe. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin affirmed market sentiment that a stimulus package was unlikely to be agreed before the November 3 election. The reaction was limited by expectations that a stimulus agreement will be agreed at some point before the end of the winter. Nonetheless, short-term interest rate futures fell slightly as expectations of increased near-term monetary accommodation combined with limited near-term stimulus growth to lower rising rate expectations.In US equity markets, November futures on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) were unchanged week-on-week as election result outcomes continued to point to a less contentious result than anticipated a few weeks ago. Meanwhile the spot VIX Index rose 2 index points on slightly higher perceived downside risks from rising Coronavirus cases in Europe as well as setbacks in stimulus and vaccine developments.Emerging market capital inflows were essentially unchanged during the week as US dollar safe-haven strength returned to the market on weaker economic expectations in Europe and as Brexit negotiations continued to disappoint. Over the near term, the more certain the market is of an uncontested election outcome, the greater the potential for US dollar weakness on concerns that more fiscal spending will widen U.S. trade and budget deficits. More immediately, the Evergrande situation, Brexit negotiation uncertainty and Coronavirus resurgence may offset dollar weakness in safe-haven dollar flight. This may limit EM inflows.Financial institutions issued over US$16 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (BNKEA)</a> issued an Additional Tier 1 bond while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1120:1" rel="noopener">Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Bank (1988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unionbank-of-the-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23192:1" rel="noopener">UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM)</a> brought Senior Unsecured bonds of various maturities. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-of-east-asia-s-new-at1-likely-coupon-and-curve-impact" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44112" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia’s New AT1 – Likely Coupon and Curve Impact</a> for our pre-issuance valuation thoughts on BNKEA's new AT1 bond.  Concurrently, China saw interest of over US$27 billion for its bonds. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a> was left off the list of banks arranging China’s sovereign dollar debt sale for the first time since the nation returned with big annual deals in 2017, according to Bloomberg.Market Outlook Time to separate the signals from the noise for bank investors. A sweep of the Senate, House and Presidency by the Democratic Party may be met with higher long-term interest rates on spending concerns. Although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be emerging market friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations. Eventual reflation is bank credit and equity positive, getting to reflation is not.

Asia’s Additional Tier 1 bonds underperformed as investors shifted into High Yield and X-over rated Senior Unsecured notes. China Evergrande Group's (3333 HK) attempts to restore investor confidence disappointed and negatively impacted risk sentiment. China’s US$6 billion in issuance also likely absorbed excess US$ liquidity, despite the low yields on offer.   US high yield markets continued to outperform Asia’s, and the relative outperformance of the US versus Asia resulted in continued high yield index spread decompression. Asia’s recent index widening appears to be Evergrande driven and a reduction in this company’s financial distress could have a materially positive impact on Asia’s HY index.In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening paused as investors digested negative stimulus, vaccine, and Covid-19 news in Europe. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin affirmed market sentiment that a stimulus package was unlikely to be agreed before the November 3 election. The reaction was limited by expectations that a stimulus agreement will be agreed at some point before the end of the winter. Nonetheless, short-term interest rate futures fell slightly as expectations of increased near-term monetary accommodation combined with limited near-term stimulus growth to lower rising rate expectations.In US equity markets, November futures on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) were unchanged week-on-week as election result outcomes continued to point to a less contentious result than anticipated a few weeks ago. Meanwhile the spot VIX Index rose 2 index points on slightly higher perceived downside risks from rising Coronavirus cases in Europe as well as setbacks in stimulus and vaccine developments.Emerging market capital inflows were essentially unchanged during the week as US dollar safe-haven strength returned to the market on weaker economic expectations in Europe and as Brexit negotiations continued to disappoint. Over the near term, the more certain the market is of an uncontested election outcome, the greater the potential for US dollar weakness on concerns that more fiscal spending will widen U.S. trade and budget deficits. More immediately, the Evergrande situation, Brexit negotiation uncertainty and Coronavirus resurgence may offset dollar weakness in safe-haven dollar flight. This may limit EM inflows.Financial institutions issued over US$16 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, Bank of East Asia (BNKEA) issued an Additional Tier 1 bond while the Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK), Bank of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK), China Minsheng Bank (1988 HK), and UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM) brought Senior Unsecured bonds of various maturities. Please see Bank of East Asia’s New AT1 – Likely Coupon and Curve Impact for our pre-issuance valuation thoughts on BNKEA's new AT1 bond.  Concurrently, China saw interest of over US$27 billion for its bonds. HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN) was left off the list of banks arranging China’s sovereign dollar debt sale for the first time since the nation returned with big annual deals in 2017, according to Bloomberg.Market Outlook Time to separate the signals from the noise for bank investors. A sweep of the Senate, House and Presidency by the Democratic Party may be met with higher long-term interest rates on spending concerns. Although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be emerging market friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations. Eventual reflation is bank credit and equity positive, getting to reflation is not.

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Pause as China Evergrande Impacts Asia Sentiment

China

Bank of China Ltd provides a complete range of banking and other financial services to individual and corporation customers worldwide.  The bank's services include retail banking, Great Wall credit card and debit card services, consumer credit, foreign currency transaction, corporate banking, settlement and clearing,investment banking, and fund management businesses.

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Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)

Another Day, Another Default

MAINLAND CHINA DEFAULT: Yongcheng Coal Defaulted On Its Debt, Leading To Concerns About The Credibility Of AAA Rated Corporates In Mainland China...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Credit Weekly: Vaccine Rally, Then Consolidation, Drives Outperformance & Turkey Vs Thai Banks

Positive vaccine news and the US election result lowers the likelihood of excessive US stimulus. This should cap pressure on Treasury yields and...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Ant Group: IPO Suspension Implications

With Ant Group suspending the H-share listing following SSE's suspension of the A-share listing, there will be multiple implications for trades and...

Brian Freitas

ICBC – Be Very Wary Of Worsening Credit

INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BANK OF CHINA: Don't Believe The Hype. Numbers Manufactured, and Credit Risk Suggests Long Winter For ICBC and Mainland...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Pause as China Evergrande Impacts Asia Sentiment

A must-read on US$-risk sentiment derived from high yield and equity markets, interest rates, dollar levels, capital flows and issuance to frame...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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