Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Trump names including banks, energy and tech rally hard, while renewables are sold heavily</li>
<li>Underperformance by semi-capex plays with high China sales may be reflected in Japan SPE today</li>
<li>Global defense rallied on the spectre of higher spend requirements for EU countries</li>
</ul>


Trump names including banks, energy and tech rally hard, while renewables are sold heavily
Underperformance by semi-capex plays with high China sales may be reflected in Japan SPE today
Global defense rallied on the spectre of higher spend requirements for EU countries


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

<ul>
<li>Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze</li>
<li>The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation</li>
<li>Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover</li>
</ul>


Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze
The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation
Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover


Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

<ul>
<li>Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.</li>
<li>Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.</li>
<li>Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.</li>
</ul>


Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.
Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.
Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Profit continues to expand at Mitsui E&amp;S after its transition to a holding company, now reporting over 400% profit growth for 9 months YTD. </li>
<li>The company is doing well to keep its operating costs down, with an improving funding structure and balance, as its revenue grows more than COGs.</li>
<li>We wonder if there will be more revisions upward to profit, with new initiatives and with a more proven recent track record.</li>
</ul>


Profit continues to expand at Mitsui E&amp;S after its transition to a holding company, now reporting over 400% profit growth for 9 months YTD. 
The company is doing well to keep its operating costs down, with an improving funding structure and balance, as its revenue grows more than COGs.
We wonder if there will be more revisions upward to profit, with new initiatives and with a more proven recent track record.


Mitsui E&S - Near Record ROE as Profit Continues to Expand From Multiple Drivers

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Chiyoda results were slightly weak driven by a poor gross margin in the fourth quarter but revenue guidance was punchy at ¥500bn vs. consensus at ¥354bn. </li>
<li>We had flagged previously that Chiyoda would be moving to the favourable portion of the construction s-curve shortly and that appears to be coming through. </li>
<li>That drove OP guidance of ¥20bn which is far above consensus at ¥14bn and could eventually help Chiyoda reduce potential dilution.</li>
</ul>


Chiyoda results were slightly weak driven by a poor gross margin in the fourth quarter but revenue guidance was punchy at ¥500bn vs. consensus at ¥354bn. 
We had flagged previously that Chiyoda would be moving to the favourable portion of the construction s-curve shortly and that appears to be coming through. 
That drove OP guidance of ¥20bn which is far above consensus at ¥14bn and could eventually help Chiyoda reduce potential dilution.


Japan

CHIYODA CORPORATION constructs, inspects, and maintains industrial plants around the world.  Those plants include oil refinery, petrochemical, food, and pharmaceutical plants.  The Company also provides comprehensive engineering services for such as energy saving, factory automation (FA), and environmental preservation for water treatment and soil purification.

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Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

Trump names rally while renewables sold heavily. Underperformance by semi-capex with high China sales may reflect in Japan SPE. Global defense...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

Mitsui E&S - Near Record ROE as Profit Continues to Expand From Multiple Drivers

Mitsui E&S is recording strong expansion in profit from multiple drivers which can continue and there is room for the company and the market to...

Daniel Tabbush

Chiyoda – Just Getting Started

Chiyoda guidance was extremely strong and well above consensus but could still prove conservative while valuations remain depressed even ignoring...

Mio Kato

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

Trump names rally while renewables sold heavily. Underperformance by semi-capex with high China sales may reflect in Japan SPE. Global defense...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

​Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

Mitsui E&S - Near Record ROE as Profit Continues to Expand From Multiple Drivers

Mitsui E&S is recording strong expansion in profit from multiple drivers which can continue and there is room for the company and the market to...

Daniel Tabbush

Chiyoda – Just Getting Started

Chiyoda guidance was extremely strong and well above consensus but could still prove conservative while valuations remain depressed even ignoring...

Mio Kato

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...