Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Valorant’s Masters 1 Tournament concluded today in Iceland with North America’s Optic Gaming defeating Brazil’s Loud, leaving Japan’s Zeta Division in third place. </li>
<li>These are three key regions for viewership and Japan’s surprising performance bodes well for the esports scene in the country. </li>
<li>Gameplay for Valorant Mobile has also leaked and early indications are that Krafton could be cannibalised here.</li>
</ul>


Valorant’s Masters 1 Tournament concluded today in Iceland with North America’s Optic Gaming defeating Brazil’s Loud, leaving Japan’s Zeta Division in third place. 
These are three key regions for viewership and Japan’s surprising performance bodes well for the esports scene in the country. 
Gameplay for Valorant Mobile has also leaked and early indications are that Krafton could be cannibalised here.


Valorant Is Good For Japanese Esports and Bad for Krafton

<ul>
<li>We have previously commented on Valorant’s relatively unique position in esports due to its high degree of regional parity and that is being further underscored during its ongoing Masters tournament. </li>
<li>In particular, Japan, a region not known for any particular prowess in FPS titles secured its first top eight position generating significant buzz on twitter in doing so. </li>
<li>The implications look positive here for both Valorant overall and for Japan’s esports ambitions where it is probably now time to truly familiarise yourself with the potential plays.</li>
</ul>


We have previously commented on Valorant’s relatively unique position in esports due to its high degree of regional parity and that is being further underscored during its ongoing Masters tournament. 
In particular, Japan, a region not known for any particular prowess in FPS titles secured its first top eight position generating significant buzz on twitter in doing so. 
The implications look positive here for both Valorant overall and for Japan’s esports ambitions where it is probably now time to truly familiarise yourself with the potential plays.


Valorant’s Regional Parity and Japan’s Emerging Esports Scene

<ul>
<li>Sony and LEGO’s investment in Epic comes shortly after the official release of Unreal Engine 5 which promises to significantly improve efficiency for game designers and visual effects artists. </li>
<li>We had predicted that Sony and Epic would continue to drift closer and would eventually dominate the metaverse and this does nothing to change that view.</li>
<li>We discuss below the impact on some popular metaverse plays which investors seem to fail to realise are only metaverse plays because they can be shorted.</li>
</ul>


Sony and LEGO’s investment in Epic comes shortly after the official release of Unreal Engine 5 which promises to significantly improve efficiency for game designers and visual effects artists. 
We had predicted that Sony and Epic would continue to drift closer and would eventually dominate the metaverse and this does nothing to change that view.
We discuss below the impact on some popular metaverse plays which investors seem to fail to realise are only metaverse plays because they can be shorted.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.</li>
<li>From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.</li>
<li>Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.</li>
</ul>


On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.
From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.
Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.


TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

<ul>
<li>Yesterday Sony officially announced the new structure for its popular PlayStation Plus service with three tiers including some streaming options. </li>
<li>The details had been mostly leaked already and there were no major surprises but pricing looked extremely reasonable. </li>
<li>Below we compare the plans against Xbox Game Pass and explain why this demonstrates a far better understanding of the industry on Sony’s part.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday Sony officially announced the new structure for its popular PlayStation Plus service with three tiers including some streaming options. 
The details had been mostly leaked already and there were no major surprises but pricing looked extremely reasonable. 
Below we compare the plans against Xbox Game Pass and explain why this demonstrates a far better understanding of the industry on Sony’s part.


Sony – New PlayStation Plus Plans Illustrate Overwhelming Superiority Vs. XBox

Japan

Sony Corporation manufactures audio, home video game consoles, communications, key device and information technology products for the consumer and professional markets.  The Company's other businesses include music, pictures, computer entertainment, and online businesses.

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Sony Corp (6758 JP)

Valorant Is Good For Japanese Esports and Bad for Krafton

Regional parity and strong performance by a Japanese team in Valorant could kick start Japan's esports drive while Valorant Mobile looks like a...

Mio Kato

Valorant’s Regional Parity and Japan’s Emerging Esports Scene

We outline our thoughts on esports in Japan and globally based on some interesting trends during the ongoing Valorant international tournament.

Mio Kato

Sony – An Epic Funding Round

Sony and LEGO’s investment in Epic comes shortly after the official release of Unreal Engine 5. We discuss below the impact on some popular...

Mio Kato

TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

Changes to the Topix FFW methodology will result in a turnover of 2.87% & trade of ¥2,285bn from April to June. There is a lot to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

Sony – New PlayStation Plus Plans Illustrate Overwhelming Superiority Vs. XBox

We compare the newly announced PlayStation Plus plans against Xbox Game Pass and explain why this demonstrates a far better understanding of the...

Mio Kato

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