FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with his commanding the sea to retreat and ending up with wet feet. The tide, it turned out, would obey none, not even a successful King and empire builder. The story is often represented as one of human folly and hubris. The power- mad ruler who thought he could command nature. In fact the reverse is true. Cnut was specifically setting out to teach his…

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with his commanding the sea to retreat and ending up with wet feet. The tide, it turned out, would obey none, not even a successful King and empire builder. The story is often represented as one of human folly and hubris. The power- mad ruler who thought he could command nature. In fact the reverse is true. Cnut was specifically setting out to teach his…

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely peak in January / February but will likely not moderate much until May/June.  CPI rose from 7% YoY to 8.53% YoY in December but perhaps most alarmingly core CPI rose from 6.99% to 7.48%. In consequence bond yields have started to widen again in Turkey and given the heavy reliance on foreign bond purchases to fund the stock of debt, the currency has come…

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely peak in January / February but will likely not moderate much until May/June.  CPI rose from 7% YoY to 8.53% YoY in December but perhaps most alarmingly core CPI rose from 6.99% to 7.48%. In consequence bond yields have started to widen again in Turkey and given the heavy reliance on foreign bond purchases to fund the stock of debt, the currency has come…

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

In the recently uncovered money laundering scam at a Delhi branch of Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB), the management appears to have taken swift action, suspending only the branch manager, who was subsequently arrested. While the bank’s media release assured the public of its zero tolerance policy for employees violating its Code of Conduct, no action seems to have been taken regarding an earlier far more wide-ranging possibly systemic scam involving the bank and its investment banking subsidiary. Worse, both the capital market and banking regulators do not seem concerned about these violations and about investigating the business model of the group, giving credence to the saying, ““It is good to have cronies in high places.”

In the recently uncovered money laundering scam at a Delhi branch of Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB), the management appears to have taken swift action, suspending only the branch manager, who was subsequently arrested. While the bank’s media release assured the public of its zero tolerance policy for employees violating its Code of Conduct, no action seems to have been taken regarding an earlier far more wide-ranging possibly systemic scam involving the bank and its investment banking subsidiary. Worse, both the capital market and banking regulators do not seem concerned about these violations and about investigating the business model of the group, giving credence to the saying, ““It is good to have cronies in high places.”

Kotak Mahindra Bank - Strain Out a Gnat But Swallow a Camel

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

<ul><li>Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.</li><li> Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.</li><li>Room for further rate cuts on easing inflation and as demonetization hurts growth; downside risk to overvalued rupee with slow growth and rise in US yields.</li></ul>

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.Room for further rate cuts on easing inflation and as demonetization hurts growth; downside risk to overvalued rupee with slow growth and rise in US yields.

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets. It is evident that a significant...

Greg Gibbs

Money Matters: King Cnut and the PBOC.

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely...

Stewart Paterson

Kotak Mahindra Bank - Strain Out a Gnat But Swallow a Camel

In the recently uncovered money laundering scam at a Delhi branch of Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB), the management appears to have taken swift action,...

Hemindra Hazari

Marketnomix Insights : India Outlook

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural...

Rajan Govil

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