Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Japanese people are renowned for their thrift.  Even when deposit interest rates are zero they continue to save.  Cash continues to pour into the banks at near-record levels, both from corporates and from individuals.  But that is not good news: there is little the banks can do with all those savings when loan rates are also zero (and less than zero in some circumstances!).  Unsurprisingly, Japanese banks are not looking forward to a particularly Merry Christmas this year.</p><p>Deposit growth at the 112 banks that are members of the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) touched +9.4% YoY in November 2020: the 2<sup>nd</sup>-highest YoY growth level ever recorded and just short of the record +9.5% YoY growth rate set back in August.  Most of the additional ¥8.251 trillion (US$79.34 billion) in funds deposited with the banks in November ended up with the major banks, pushing their loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs) down to record lows of inefficiency as deposit inflows were over four times greater than new loan outflows.  Only the secondary regional banks registered a small decline in deposit balances: a curious development, as their loan balances grew by a record +7.0% YoY.</p><p>As the world gets ready to celebrate the end of what has been a terrible year globally and to welcome in the start of 2021 in the fervent hope that it will prove to be better than 2020, there is seemingly no end to the financial pain for Japan’s embattled banks… or for their long-suffering shareholders.</p><p>“<em>Caveat Emptor!”</em> (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/179/761/original/TPNBNK+vs+TPX+in+CY2020.jpg?1608608493" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="179761"></figure></section>

Japanese people are renowned for their thrift.  Even when deposit interest rates are zero they continue to save.  Cash continues to pour into the banks at near-record levels, both from corporates and from individuals.  But that is not good news: there is little the banks can do with all those savings when loan rates are also zero (and less than zero in some circumstances!).  Unsurprisingly, Japanese banks are not looking forward to a particularly Merry Christmas this year.Deposit growth at the 112 banks that are members of the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) touched +9.4% YoY in November 2020: the 2nd-highest YoY growth level ever recorded and just short of the record +9.5% YoY growth rate set back in August.  Most of the additional ¥8.251 trillion (US$79.34 billion) in funds deposited with the banks in November ended up with the major banks, pushing their loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs) down to record lows of inefficiency as deposit inflows were over four times greater than new loan outflows.  Only the secondary regional banks registered a small decline in deposit balances: a curious development, as their loan balances grew by a record +7.0% YoY.As the world gets ready to celebrate the end of what has been a terrible year globally and to welcome in the start of 2021 in the fervent hope that it will prove to be better than 2020, there is seemingly no end to the financial pain for Japan’s embattled banks… or for their long-suffering shareholders.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Banks:  Remember, Remember, the Thrift of November

Equity Bottom-Up

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Interim results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concordia-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22704:1" rel="noopener">Concordia Financial Group, Ltd (7186 JP)</a>, or CFG, were coloured by significantly lower net interest and fee income from domestic business reported by Bank of Yokohama, and a reduced consolidated net loss of just ¥125 million reported by Higashi-Nippon Bank (HNPB) as a result of much lower credit costs than 1H FY3/2020. HNPB remains the drag on group profitability.</p><p>Aggregate foreign ownership in CFG remains high at around 31.5% as investors view CFG as a liquid alternative to the ‘crowded trade’ of simply buying megabanks for exposure to the Japanese financial sector.  Moreover, CFG offers a cash dividend payment policy of 33% of net profits, a total shareholder return policy target of 50%, conducts frequent share buybacks, and regularly cancels part of its Treasury Stock to boost overall shareholder returns.  However, lingering investor memories of past management scandals have caused CFG to significantly underperform the Topix Banks Index since 2018, with its share price still down 16% YoY even after a 21% recovery in the last six months.</p><p>The Topix Banks Index has notably underperformed Topix all year, but may be in for its perennial ‘run’ between now and mid-February next year, buoyed by the outcome of the US election and with global market hopes high for a successful COVID-19 vaccine. Even so, within the regional banking sector, we much prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chiba-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1048:1" rel="noopener">Chiba Bank (8331 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iyo-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6869:1" rel="noopener">Iyo Bank (8385 JP)</a> on fundamentals, or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> as a strong thematic play on the rising fortunes of its largest stock investment, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a>.</p>

Interim results for Concordia Financial Group, Ltd (7186 JP), or CFG, were coloured by significantly lower net interest and fee income from domestic business reported by Bank of Yokohama, and a reduced consolidated net loss of just ¥125 million reported by Higashi-Nippon Bank (HNPB) as a result of much lower credit costs than 1H FY3/2020. HNPB remains the drag on group profitability.Aggregate foreign ownership in CFG remains high at around 31.5% as investors view CFG as a liquid alternative to the ‘crowded trade’ of simply buying megabanks for exposure to the Japanese financial sector.  Moreover, CFG offers a cash dividend payment policy of 33% of net profits, a total shareholder return policy target of 50%, conducts frequent share buybacks, and regularly cancels part of its Treasury Stock to boost overall shareholder returns.  However, lingering investor memories of past management scandals have caused CFG to significantly underperform the Topix Banks Index since 2018, with its share price still down 16% YoY even after a 21% recovery in the last six months.The Topix Banks Index has notably underperformed Topix all year, but may be in for its perennial ‘run’ between now and mid-February next year, buoyed by the outcome of the US election and with global market hopes high for a successful COVID-19 vaccine. Even so, within the regional banking sector, we much prefer Chiba Bank (8331 JP) and Iyo Bank (8385 JP) on fundamentals, or Bank Of Kyoto (8369 JP) as a strong thematic play on the rising fortunes of its largest stock investment, namely Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP).

Concordia Financial Group (7186 JP):  Unequal Partners

<p>Interim results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gunma-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15777:1" rel="noopener">Gunma Bank (8334 JP)</a><em>, </em>the dominant bank in Gunma Prefecture northwest of the Japanese capital Tokyo, comfortably beat the bank’s own guidance despite hefty COVID-19-related loan loss provisioning taken in 1Q.  The bank has left its full-year guidance unchanged, expecting consolidated net profits of ¥20.5 billion, or ¥49/share, with dividends for the year of ¥13/share, suggesting a dividend payout ratio of around 27%.  On a prospective PER (using the bank’s revised guidance) of 7.0x and a low PBR of 0.30x, the stock remains inexpensive against peers despite having risen some 30% since touching a 2020 low in mid-March.  Surprisingly, foreign investors own in aggregate less than 18% of this undervalued Japanese regional bank.  Worth considering.</p>

Interim results for Gunma Bank (8334 JP), the dominant bank in Gunma Prefecture northwest of the Japanese capital Tokyo, comfortably beat the bank’s own guidance despite hefty COVID-19-related loan loss provisioning taken in 1Q.  The bank has left its full-year guidance unchanged, expecting consolidated net profits of ¥20.5 billion, or ¥49/share, with dividends for the year of ¥13/share, suggesting a dividend payout ratio of around 27%.  On a prospective PER (using the bank’s revised guidance) of 7.0x and a low PBR of 0.30x, the stock remains inexpensive against peers despite having risen some 30% since touching a 2020 low in mid-March.  Surprisingly, foreign investors own in aggregate less than 18% of this undervalued Japanese regional bank.  Worth considering.

Gunma Bank (8334 JP):  Hiding in Plain Sight

<p>After hitting a peak of ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion) in June, overall loan outstandings have started to edge down over the last three months to ¥534.206 trillion (US$5.08 trillion) as of the end of September, albeit by a mere 0.1% month-on-month (MoM).  The major banks have registered the biggest declines of around 0.5% MoM, but they still represent 40% of total bank lending in Japan.  By contrast, both the Japanese Bankers Association and the Bank of Japan reported that lending by the regional and secondary regional banks continues to increase, with YoY growth rates of +5.6% and +7.1%, respectively.  Aggregate lending by the 64 regional banks now represents 42% of total bank lending in Japan, while aggregate lending by the 38 secondary regional banks is around 9.6% of total bank lending.</p>

After hitting a peak of ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion) in June, overall loan outstandings have started to edge down over the last three months to ¥534.206 trillion (US$5.08 trillion) as of the end of September, albeit by a mere 0.1% month-on-month (MoM).  The major banks have registered the biggest declines of around 0.5% MoM, but they still represent 40% of total bank lending in Japan.  By contrast, both the Japanese Bankers Association and the Bank of Japan reported that lending by the regional and secondary regional banks continues to increase, with YoY growth rates of +5.6% and +7.1%, respectively.  Aggregate lending by the 64 regional banks now represents 42% of total bank lending in Japan, while aggregate lending by the 38 secondary regional banks is around 9.6% of total bank lending.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/068/original/2020-07-09_13-43-33.png?1594269841" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145068"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>WHAT CURRENCY RISK?</strong> - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed companies. Compared to the thirty-five years to 2015, the last five years have been a period of benign calm in the USD/JPY exchange rate, aided and abetted by the action of central banks to eliminate interest rates and the functioning of the bond markets. Most observers expect this currency stability regime to continue and COVID-19 has so far only seen one short 'blip' to ¥102.36 on 9th March.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/095/original/2020-07-09_15-04-02.png?1594274675" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145095"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>¥ BELOW 100</strong> -  If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when Yen has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975. The three Yen 'peaks' we have highlighted above in 1995, 2011, and 2016 proved excellent entry points. The subsequent trough-to-peak performance was 43%, 139%, and 60%, respectively. The COVID-19-induced trough-to-peak is, so far, just 31%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/101/original/2020-07-09_15-13-11.png?1594275216" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145101"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>KEY DRIVER </strong>- Nevertheless, for an increasingly-global Japan, the USDJPY exchange rate remains a key driver of earnings. With a lag of six months, the peaks and troughs of the USDJPY exchange rate have coincided with turning points in the earnings cycle as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score. The six-month lag suggests that ignoring the impact of COVID-19, the exchange rate is mildly supportive of earnings momentum for the balance of 2020.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• CORRELATION ANALYSIS •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/499/original/2020-07-12_12-55-49.png?1594526165" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145499"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/500/original/2020-07-12_13-13-53.png?1594527254" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145500"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>CORRELATIONS</strong> - Our analysis of the currency risk of specific companies will be in two parts. The first and simplest is to examine the long-term positive and negative correlations of each listed larger-capitalisation company against the US dollar and Euro for the split-adjusted share price. This analysis will yield some surprising results, including the positive US Dollar correlation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express (9062 JP)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7117:1" rel="noopener">Nikon (7731 JP)</a> is negatively correlated. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/502/original/2020-07-12_13-22-12.png?1594527750" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145502"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>FCTA </strong>- The second part is perhaps more abstruse, however but is a more accurate estimation of the actual currency risk embedded in the business model.  The Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment (FCTA) is part of Other Comprehensive Income and has been disclosed in Japanese GAAP-based balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored. For example, the decline in the US dollar from ¥123 to ¥101 in 2016 resulted in a six-quarter ¥53 trillion negative FCTA adjustment, 65% of the gap between Net Income and CITC over that period.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/273/original/2020-07-10_16-08-25.png?1594364929" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145273"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>CITC &amp; NET INCOME</strong> - Comprehensive Income adds a series of adjustments to Net Income to reflect as-yet-unrealised changes from currency translations, securities valuation differences, pensions, and deferred hedges. These adjustments are subsequently 'recycled' as and when realisations occur. In aggregate over the last seven years, Comprehensive Income has exceeded Net Income by a cumulative ¥56 trillion or 7%. However, as Comprehensive Income is inherently a more volatile data series, it is eschewed or overlooked by most analysts despite the direct impact on Shareholders' Equity. Nevertheless, Comprehensive Income illustrates that, as a result of increased globalisation and investments in marketable securities, the underlying earnings of Japanese corporates have become riskier than is implied by Net Income. In 2017, the FCTA resulted in an aggregate loss for Comprehensive Income to Common (CITC) and a corresponding decline in Shareholders' Equity for non-financial Japanese companies.  In the last two reported quarters, the 'gap' between Net Income and CITC has begun to widen again as both Valuation Differences and the FCTA have turned negative.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/447/original/2020-07-12_10-58-45.png?1594519146" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145447"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FCTA BY SECTOR</strong> - Two-thirds of the total absolute FCTA over the last seven years comes from seven Sectors - <strong>Autos</strong>, <strong>Wholesale</strong>, <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong>,<strong> Technology Hardware</strong>, <strong>Machinery</strong>, <strong>Other Consumer Products</strong> and <strong>Telecommunications </strong>(Softbank Group). The least-exposed Sectors are<strong> Services</strong>, <strong>IT</strong> &amp;<strong> Internet</strong>,<strong> Multi-Industry</strong> and<strong> Restaurants</strong>.</p><hr><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall look at the Accumulated Balance Sheet Foreign Currency Adjustments where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> have the most significant amounts of positive and negative Accumulated FCTA's relative to Equity, respectively.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/448/original/2020-07-12_11-12-20.png?1594519955" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145448"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/617/original/2020-07-13_15-35-04.png?1594622118" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145617"></figure><p>Source • Japan Analytics</p>
</div><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>This Part 6 concludes our Stress Test series. However, forthcoming Insights will look at the Valuation Differences component of Other Comprehensive Income and those companies with the most substantial CITC/Net Income 'gaps'.</strong></p></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsWHAT CURRENCY RISK? - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed companies. Compared to the thirty-five years to 2015, the last five years have been a period of benign calm in the USD/JPY exchange rate, aided and abetted by the action of central banks to eliminate interest rates and the functioning of the bond markets. Most observers expect this currency stability regime to continue and COVID-19 has so far only seen one short 'blip' to ¥102.36 on 9th March.Source • Japan Analytics¥ BELOW 100 -  If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when Yen has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975. The three Yen 'peaks' we have highlighted above in 1995, 2011, and 2016 proved excellent entry points. The subsequent trough-to-peak performance was 43%, 139%, and 60%, respectively. The COVID-19-induced trough-to-peak is, so far, just 31%.Source • Japan AnalyticsKEY DRIVER - Nevertheless, for an increasingly-global Japan, the USDJPY exchange rate remains a key driver of earnings. With a lag of six months, the peaks and troughs of the USDJPY exchange rate have coincided with turning points in the earnings cycle as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score. The six-month lag suggests that ignoring the impact of COVID-19, the exchange rate is mildly supportive of earnings momentum for the balance of 2020.• CORRELATION ANALYSIS •Source • Japan AnalyticsCORRELATIONS - Our analysis of the currency risk of specific companies will be in two parts. The first and simplest is to examine the long-term positive and negative correlations of each listed larger-capitalisation company against the US dollar and Euro for the split-adjusted share price. This analysis will yield some surprising results, including the positive US Dollar correlation of Nippon Express (9062 JP), while Nikon (7731 JP) is negatively correlated. • THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT •Source • Japan AnalyticsFCTA - The second part is perhaps more abstruse, however but is a more accurate estimation of the actual currency risk embedded in the business model.  The Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment (FCTA) is part of Other Comprehensive Income and has been disclosed in Japanese GAAP-based balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored. For example, the decline in the US dollar from ¥123 to ¥101 in 2016 resulted in a six-quarter ¥53 trillion negative FCTA adjustment, 65% of the gap between Net Income and CITC over that period.Source • Japan AnalyticsCITC &amp; NET INCOME - Comprehensive Income adds a series of adjustments to Net Income to reflect as-yet-unrealised changes from currency translations, securities valuation differences, pensions, and deferred hedges. These adjustments are subsequently 'recycled' as and when realisations occur. In aggregate over the last seven years, Comprehensive Income has exceeded Net Income by a cumulative ¥56 trillion or 7%. However, as Comprehensive Income is inherently a more volatile data series, it is eschewed or overlooked by most analysts despite the direct impact on Shareholders' Equity. Nevertheless, Comprehensive Income illustrates that, as a result of increased globalisation and investments in marketable securities, the underlying earnings of Japanese corporates have become riskier than is implied by Net Income. In 2017, the FCTA resulted in an aggregate loss for Comprehensive Income to Common (CITC) and a corresponding decline in Shareholders' Equity for non-financial Japanese companies.  In the last two reported quarters, the 'gap' between Net Income and CITC has begun to widen again as both Valuation Differences and the FCTA have turned negative.Source • Japan AnalyticsFCTA BY SECTOR - Two-thirds of the total absolute FCTA over the last seven years comes from seven Sectors - Autos, Wholesale, Electrical Equipment, Technology Hardware, Machinery, Other Consumer Products and Telecommunications (Softbank Group). The least-exposed Sectors are Services, IT &amp; Internet, Multi-Industry and Restaurants.In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the Accumulated Balance Sheet Foreign Currency Adjustments where Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) have the most significant amounts of positive and negative Accumulated FCTA's relative to Equity, respectively.
Source • Japan Analytics
This Part 6 concludes our Stress Test series. However, forthcoming Insights will look at the Valuation Differences component of Other Comprehensive Income and those companies with the most substantial CITC/Net Income 'gaps'.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 6: Currency Risk

Japan

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

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Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)

Japanese Banks: Remember, Remember, the Thrift of November

Japanese people are renowned for their thrift. Even when deposit interest rates are zero they continue to save. But there is little the banks can...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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On a PER of 7.0x and a PBR of 0.30x, the stock remains inexpensive against peers despite being up some 30% since touching a low in mid-March. This...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Bank Lending: Flatlining

Loan and deposit data for Japanese banks released by both the BoJ and the JBA for September 2020 confirm that the ‘dash for cash’ by major...

J. Brian Waterhouse

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 6: Currency Risk

WHAT CURRENCY RISK? - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed...

Campbell Gunn

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