HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Zhejiang Expressway Co H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>By way of its 54.79% ownership in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities (601878 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK)</a> is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  </li>
<li>The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE's market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE's 1H24 profit.</li>
<li>ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.</li>
</ul>


By way of its 54.79% ownership in Zheshang Securities (601878 CH), Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  
The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE's market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE's 1H24 profit.
ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.


Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's toll road sector has gone up by 47.4% since 2022, but it remains an excellent yield play with an average yield of 7.2% and 7.8% in FY24 and FY25.</li>
<li>1Q24 profit is solid, with 3-year forecast earnings CAGR at a healthy 6.5%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-expressway-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5236:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Expressway H (995 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-express-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9956:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK)</a> have the most consistent DPS trend.</li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-express-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9956:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK)</a> for its track record and growth prospects. As a relative underperformer in the sector, it is poised to catch up.</li>
</ul>


China's toll road sector has gone up by 47.4% since 2022, but it remains an excellent yield play with an average yield of 7.2% and 7.8% in FY24 and FY25.
1Q24 profit is solid, with 3-year forecast earnings CAGR at a healthy 6.5%. Anhui Expressway H (995 HK) and Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK) have the most consistent DPS trend.
We like Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK) for its track record and growth prospects. As a relative underperformer in the sector, it is poised to catch up.


China Toll Road Sector: Higher for Longer......Yields

<ul>
<li>On average, companies under our coverage are forecast to see a 47.3% YoY growth in net profit in 1Q25. Their results should be a pointer for the outlook in 2025. </li>
<li>Good results are expected at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Hldgs (1919 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">CNBM (3323 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinhua-winshare-publishing-media-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15072:1" rel="noopener">Xinhua Winshare (811 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp. (1138 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> will see weaker 1Q25.</li>
</ul>


On average, companies under our coverage are forecast to see a 47.3% YoY growth in net profit in 1Q25. Their results should be a pointer for the outlook in 2025. 
Good results are expected at Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK), COSCO Shipping Hldgs (1919 HK), Air China Ltd (753 HK), and CNBM (3323 HK). 

Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Xinhua Winshare (811 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp. (1138 HK), and China Longyuan Power (916 HK) will see weaker 1Q25.


China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium was 85.0% as of Mar 28th. The average A-H premium changed by 1.8ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, communication services, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, Tsingtao Brewery, Cmoc, Xinhua Winshare Publishing And Media.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week.
The average A-H premium was 85.0% as of Mar 28th. The average A-H premium changed by 1.8ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, communication services, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, Tsingtao Brewery, Cmoc, Xinhua Winshare Publishing And Media.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 28th): Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, Tsingtao Brewery, Cmoc

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 148 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.2% as of Sep 20th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, communication services, materials and offset by consumer staples, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for RemeGen, JOINN, Shenzhen Expressway, Anhui Expressway, GAC Group, Ganfeng Lithium.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 148 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.2% as of Sep 20th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, communication services, materials and offset by consumer staples, health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for RemeGen, JOINN, Shenzhen Expressway, Anhui Expressway, GAC Group, Ganfeng Lithium.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 20th):RemeGen, JOINN, Shenzhen Expressway, Anhui Expressway, GAC Group

China

Anhui Expressway Co. Ltd. principally holds, operates and develops toll expressways and highways in Anhui province in China.

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Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK)

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Toll Road Sector: Higher for Longer......Yields

China's toll road sector has performed solidly since 2022, but is still offering attractive yields and healthy profit. Jiangsu Expressway stands...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Earnings for the companies under our coverage are expected to grow by 47.3% in 1Q25, with Shanghai Electric Group, Anhui Conch, COSCO Shipping...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 28th): Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, Tsingtao Brewery, Cmoc

We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, Tsingtao Brewery, Cmoc, Xinhua Winshare Publishing And...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 20th):RemeGen, JOINN, Shenzhen Expressway, Anhui Expressway, GAC Group

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for RemeGen, JOINN, Shenzhen Expressway, Anhui Expressway, GAC...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

​Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Toll Road Sector: Higher for Longer......Yields

​China's toll road sector has performed solidly since 2022, but is still offering attractive yields and healthy profit. Jiangsu Expressway stands...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Earnings for the companies under our coverage are expected to grow by 47.3% in 1Q25, with Shanghai Electric Group, Anhui Conch, COSCO Shipping...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 28th): Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, Tsingtao Brewery, Cmoc

We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Great Wall Motor, China Oilfield Services, Tsingtao Brewery, Cmoc, Xinhua Winshare Publishing And...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 20th):RemeGen, JOINN, Shenzhen Expressway, Anhui Expressway, GAC Group

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for RemeGen, JOINN, Shenzhen Expressway, Anhui Expressway, GAC...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

China's toll road sector has performed solidly since 2022, but is still offering attractive yields and healthy profit. Jiangsu Expressway stands...